Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (5646)

Mid-September Update

Hello all!

 

Taken from my post on August 17th…

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

Here are the European Weeklies from August 21st showing 500mb heights.

 

 

Note the upper heights in the NE Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Now, look at the Week 4 for the CONUS.

 

 

Trough in the Plains with heat in the Southeast.  At that point I believed it had the pattern, but couldn’t grasp the implications.

Lo, and behold, week 3 shows what I’m talking about…

 

The heat expands up the East Coast to Canada and includes Texas.  Also, note that the below normal departures have gotten larger in the Dakota’s.

 

 

EDIT:  A friend of mine let me know that I couldn’t post the weeklies.  Thanks Al! (88)

Dual Typhoons Again?!

Hey everyone,

 

Once again we are hearing chatter about two typhoons in the Western Pacific!

 

Typhoon Goni moves progressively West as it gets stronger reaching Supertyphoon status on the 20th at 130kts with maximum gust up to 160kts before gaining latitude between Luzon and Taiwan.

Goni

Typhoon Atsanti gains latitude, in part, due to an upper level low situated over the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.

Atsani

 

Now…the importance is straightforward if y’all have followed me over time.

 

The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

 

As of this writing, we are seeing both typhoons recurving.  Goni gets absorbed in an upper level low over the Korean Peninsula while Atsanti gets slingshot into another system over Sakhalin Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula.  Let’s take a look at what the 6-10 day forecast looks like via the Climate Prediction Center…

17AUG610day

 

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

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It’s All Related!

image

I am sure that y’all are seeing in the mainstream media how former Super Typhoon SOUDELOR is heading towards Taiwan,  and eventually,  mainland China.  The significance is that it teleconnects to a ridge in the eastern third of the lower 48 in 6-10 days depending on the set up in Japan.

Low and behold,  look at the CPC outlook…

6-10 day temperatures

image

Here is the 8-14 day outlook…

image

The above normal chances diminish in the Plains and the below normal chances diminish in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  The significance is that the heat from the Plains earlier moves east to bring those areas closer to normal.

Right on SOUDELOR’s heals is Invest 96W. Unlike SOUDELOR,  it is to recurve by the system that eventually picks up it’s big brother in China.  The net result is we will see a strong cold front push through in the 3rd week of August.

So,  the background to this post is on the 25th of July a good friend approached me for a forecast on the 15th of August in the Quad Cities region of IA/IL. I took a look and saw this in the North Pacific…

image

Now look at our research team’s data points superimposed over the same area.

image

The WPC 500mb day 7 forecast shows a 594mb high centered on the Kiowa Grasslands of NM/OK/TX.

image

Note the trough in Northern California which will push the ridge east by the 15th.

image (352)

Upcoming Conferences

Hello everyone!

 

An update as to what is going on with the Bering Sea Rule research is in order!  We have submitted our abstract for oral presentation to NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s 40th Diagnostic Workshop being held in Denver this October and the American Meteorological Society 96th Annual Meeting being held in New Orleans this upcoming January.

 

Our introduction…

Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range forecasts II: Predictability of Extreme and Severe Weather

The Bering Sea Rule (BSR) has been shown to be an effective long range forecasting tool. One can find 8-14 day and monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation through the Climate Prediction Center. However, there are no forecast tools for looking at the possibility of extreme,  or severe,  weather past mid-range forecasts, or about eight days courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center. Computer models are also not able to forecast effectively beyond the seven to 15 day range in the PNA region, as dynamic predictability diminishes severely. Utilizing three important data collection points in the Pacific and over the continental United States, and the Bering Sea Rule, forecasts that perform better than climatology can be obtained.  Using autocorrelation and fourier analysis of the PNA Index,  we find a strong 20 to 30 day oscillation that would correspond to the BSR. These statistical techniques also show some promise for the identification of potential extreme,  or severe,  weather events beyond the dynamic forecasting range. Thus these forecasts would be of interest to the government, energy, agriculture, and other sectors in identifying the potential for severe weather.

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Rossby Wave Train and The BSR

Hello everyone!

 

My good friend and research partner, Josh Herman, has developed some interesting tools in our attempt to make the connection of the Bering Sea Rule to the Reoccuring Rossby Wave Train.

 

Look here for his blog post…

http://osnw3isorr.blogspot.com/

 

and here for the tools…

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/index.html

 

We were discussing how the cycle that we are seeing the high frequency matching ~37 days and the low frequency going for ~70.  With that I decided to go to the Weather Prediction Center’s qpf archives and this is what I found.

 

wpid-wp-1438720545589.gif

 

The above is the 7 day precipitation forecast for the lower 48 with a start date of June 29th, 2015.  Note the monsoonal flow into the desert sw, rainfall in the Dakota’s and traveling down the Missouri River Valley, deluge in the heart of “Little Egypt” region of the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence spreading up the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast, and a system off of the North Carolina coast.

 

 

 

Now take a look at the 7 day forecast from August 4th.wpid-wp-1438720525164.gif

 

Disbelief

 

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Weather Ready Ambassadors

Hello everyone!

 

KOPN 89.5 FM has been granted the Weather Ready Ambassador designation.  What is this?

 

The Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™ initiative is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) effort to formally recognize NOAA partners who are improving the nation’s readiness, responsiveness, and overall resilience against extreme weather, water, and climate events. As a WRN Ambassador, partners commit to working with NOAA and other Ambassadors to strengthen national resilience against extreme weather. In effect, the WRN Ambassador initiative helps unify the efforts across government, non-profits, academia, and private industry toward making the nation more ready, responsive, and resilient against extreme environmental hazards.Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is a strategic outcome where society’s response should be equal to the risk from all extreme weather, water, and climate hazards.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is a:

  • Unifying effort;
  • Action-oriented;
  • Inclusive; and
  • Force multiplier (i.e., new partnerships lead to even more partnership opportunities).

WRN Ambassadors serve a pivotal role in affecting societal change — helping to build a nation that is ready, responsive, and resilient to the impacts of extreme weather and water events.
To be officially recognized as a WRN Ambassador, an organization must commit to:

  • Promoting Weather-Ready Nation messages and themes to their stakeholders;
  • Engaging with NOAA personnel on potential collaboration opportunities;
  • Sharing their success stories of preparedness and resiliency;
  • Serving as an example by educating employees on workplace preparedness

As a WRN Ambassador, you will serve as a change agent and leader in your community. You will inspire others to be better informed and prepared, helping to minimize or even avoid the impacts of these natural disasters.
To support your efforts, NOAA can:

  • Provide outreach content about creating a Weather-Ready Nation;
  • Explore innovative approaches for collaboration with your organization;
  • Assist with StormReady®/TsunamiReady™ opportunities for communities;
  • Recognize your organization as a WRN Ambassador; and
  • Share the WRN Ambassador logo for your use.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation requires more than government alone. It requires the entire Weather Enterprise to provide information for better community, business, and personal decision making, and innovative partnerships across all segments of society. We must involve everyone in an effort to move people – and society – toward heeding warnings, taking action, and influencing their circles of family, friends, and social network to act appropriately.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is the connecting hub of a vast network of federal, state, and local government agencies; emergency managers and city planners; researchers, the media; the insurance industry; nonprofit organizations; the private sector; and many others who are working together to address the impacts of extreme weather on daily life.

Together we will inform and empower communities, businesses, and people to make pre-event decisions that can be life-saving and prevent or limit devastating economic losses. We are a nation of many communities, and it is only through connected communities that we will achieve this goal.

 

WRN_Ambassador_logo (585)

It’s Official!

Hello gang!

 

First, I apologize for not updating the blog in over a month.  The month of February has been crazy as I’ve moved into a new place, am still working 55 hours per week at my non-meteorology job, have been hired on as a full-time benefit eligible employee at said job, and working on my immediate family relationships.  So, as you can guess, my time on the computer was not important.

Regarding our research, I received this via email today.  Feel free to have a gander about what we discussed at the conference last October in St. Louis, MO!

http://issuu.com/climatesti/docs/39cdpwdigest (1017)

29JAN15 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule is showing a system move through the Far East on the 30th of January with ridging between the 2nd and 3rd of February before another system on the 4th of February.  Then a clipper like system moves in from the Northwest on the 5th of February to usher in a cold spell that last from the 7th of February into the 13th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a storm on February 6th with a slight warm up on February 9th and 10th before another storm on the 11th.  The kicker is a clipper on the 12th which ushers in cold air that last all the way until February 20th. This matches the long range discussion on the 19th of this month.

The Bering Sea has an impressive ridge complex after a storm on the 31st of January to the West of Shemya Island.  This ridging will continue into the 6th of February until it retrogrades Westward allowing a Northerly flow to take over and bring temperatures below normal until the 12th of February.  The Central Missouri correlation means that from February 18th into February 26th we will see above normal temperatures.  The cold then hits us on February 27th into March 4th as a result per our research.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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