Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

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The Weather Junkies Interview

Hey gang,

Sorry that it took a while to update the blog with the latest #organicforecasting interview, but here it is.

Ep 25: Long Range Forecasts Using Bering Sea & Typhoon Rule w/ JD Renken

 

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SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh’s January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.

Look at what the BSR is showing…

One might look at the above maps and think…how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such…The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further…the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS

Euro

On a side note…here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th…

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support…

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini’s research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

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Severe Weather To Open April

Hello everyone!

As stated earlier in the January 30th blog regarding our Recurring Rossby Wave Train Severe Weather Test, the beginning of April was highlighted.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days

12/2302/1304/0505/27 (Ref)

The BSR is showing this a tad bit early as the potential is showing up on April 3rd.

This time period was also highlighted on the CFS forecast initiated back on March 4th. Note the yellow ‘x’ on the 4th. That being said, the period from the 4th until the 9th in the most recent initiation looks good too.

 When you click on the ‘x’, it yields this.

To go along with the earlier statement regarding the period between the 4th and the 9th…check out this 21-25 day 500mb forecast via the #rrwt.

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When Organic Forecasting Sees The Future Months In Advance

Part of Josh’s Recurring Rossby Wave Train research was a severe weather experiment first posted on January 30th. The Storm Prediction Center is utilizing a new experimental forecasting technique based on the Climate Forecasting System. Looking below you can see the results of the model from 1/26/16 until 3/10/16. Here is the link to said product below.

Cross reference the above with the dates that Josh provided on January 30th.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days

12/2302/1304/0505/27 (Ref)

12/3002/2004/1206/03 (Ref)

01/0903/0104/2206/13 (Ref)

Now, as you can see above, the forecast on March 8th was the first to highlight the period between April 12th through April 21st. With Josh’s experiment being documented on January 30th, that was a 38 day lead time until the CFS model hit on that period! Going further…that is a 73 and 83 day lead time for severe weather pattern recognition. That being said…I am going to introduce you to one of the graphics that Dr. Lupo created for our research paper based on Autocorrelation of the PNA.

As you can see, we have spikes at ~52 and ~76 days. This is just one of the series graphics that we have created because, as Josh has found, there are two distinct wavelengths of the RRWT.

More to come later!

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Collaboration vs Competition

Hello everyone!

In the world of weather, it’s a dog eat dog world. Social media has expanded this rivalry ten fold. Over the past week we have seen some amazing things in the world of meteorology research. Dr. Victor Gensini and Al Marinaro published their work, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum, to the American Meteorological Society’s Monthly Weather Review to much fanfare.  The global wind oscillation, or GWO as we call it, is another intraseasonal oscillation, or ISO,  that is utilized to predict the weather.

More and more research into ISO’s are showing that there is a level of predictability in weather. Dr. Gensini, for instance, noted in the GWO research that there is success in predicting tornadoes and hail via the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, two weeks in advance. I plan on cite their research in our future ISO research that will be ongoing for quite a few years.

Dr. Gensini’s work takes the ongoing research and bumps it up a notch.  His index, Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF), pushes the forecast ability to 3 weeks.  Keep this in mind…3 weeks, or 21 days.  The research team of Renken, Herman, Bradshaw, and Lupo have been focused on case studies while our own index for both the BSR and severe weather are on the table in the near future. Our research has been along the same lines as Mr. Gensini’s…just a tad different. Remember one of my favorite catch phrases is “It’s all related!”. Instead of utilizing the MJO and GWO specifically, we took a slice of the globe and created correlation points as to quantify it. 

I am giving huge kudos to Dr. Gensini and Al Marinaro for bringing pattern recognition into the lime light.  Organic forecasting, as our research team calls it, shows just how important the government, energy, emergency management, and agriculture industries would benefit.

Now..to the competition part of this post.  It seems that there are some meteorologist who claim that both his research and ours are part of his “pattern“.

A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

The basis of our research, when it comes down to it, is the Rossby Wave.  If one looks at the AMS Journals website, you will find over 9738 journals related to the Rossby Wave which was founded by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. This also shows that, contrary to what Mr. Heady says above, the research into a “cycling atmosphere” has been going on for decades. Not only that, but Mr. Heady has submitted no research papers to quantify his pattern recognition technique. All of our research has been well documented on the internet via the Accuweather.com forums, Josh’s original blogspot, our Bering Sea Rule Blogspot, and finally…this blog.

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Weather Prediction Center Day 7 Scores

One of the patterns that I utilize while looking at the WPC day 7 maps is the ability to determine when the model and WPC scores will crash.

Some history…

WPC Day 7

On multiple occasions this winter in the Accuweather forums I have been able to discern the Day 7 maps verification by using a simple pattern recognition looking at the above chart. Depending on where we are in the pattern I will tell the members of the forum how close it will be to verifying.

Here I am telling everyone to remember my rule in the February 15th-17th storm thread. Later that same day, I posted the forecast vs reality in the February 24th-26th thread as to what happened for the January 23rd storm.

Finally, the next day I posted this regarding my thoughts on the storm track.

Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the “big storms come NW”, look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka…in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.

Below are the forecast vs obs for the 2/23/16 – 2/24/16 storm…

Day 7 forecast for 2/24/16

Day 7 forecast for 2/25/16

Actual OBS for 2/24/16

Actual OBS for 2/25/16

As you can see, it was even farther NW that what I was envisioning. One can even make the argument that if we went by the “triple point“, I was even closer than that.

During the same time that I made my call of the storm being more NW than what the WPC was showing, various outlets were calling for a coastal.

Joe Bastardi on February 18th was supporting the Euro packages for obvious reasons…

PARALLEL, CONTROL, ENSEMBLE MORE LIKE IT

Just in case someone goes and tells JB that I quoted him…just make sure that you give him my name and the nickname he gave me back in 2012…Missouri Mauler. Take a listen on July 29th, 2012 around the 45:00 minute mark.

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SPC Day 2 Risk Upgraded

As promised, here is the updated Day 2 Convection Outlook from the SPC.

 

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
   SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
   AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
   MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  A FEW OF THE
   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
   A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
   INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
   LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
   PERIOD.  A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
   PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
   FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
   WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME.  ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
   THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 

   A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   BANDS.  WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
   SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/.  DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
   TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

   ...COASTAL SC...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
   MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
   THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT.

   ..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

Take note of how they mention the threat continues after dark.  If you know anyone in the highlighted regions above, please let them know the severity of the situation.

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January BSR Verification Time

Hello everyone!

Below you see a tweet regarding the BSR 500mb forecast for the period of February 14th-18th.

That forecast was made on February 2nd.

Look below for what happened during that time period.

Admittedly, the Rockies and West Coast did not perform that well.  That being said…the East Coast and Northern Mid-Atlantic was nailed.

Also, someone on social media got all but hurt regarding my last post on “Today’s Severe Weather” and how it must be nice to hindcast.  Well…after the brief Facebook exchange that he had with me, I looked in my prior postings…lo and behold…

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So! showed towards the middle my thoughts on the President’s Day severe weather.

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

This was the Day 4-8 Outlook from the SPC issued on January 8th for the period ending 12z January 16th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PERVASIVE OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST D6...AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AIR-MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE NRN GULF AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NON-NEGLIGIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EVEN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/08/2016

Then again…here is the period ending on 12z January 17th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DAYS 4-5 /TUE-WED/...AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX PREVAILS
   OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  DURING THIS TIME...WITH A POLAR
   AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

   MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES BEYOND DAY 5...AS THE FIRST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN U.S. TROUGHS REACHES THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  THE
   EURO MAINTAINS A STRONGER FEATURE...PHASING IT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH ROUNDING THE SWRN SIDE OF THE ERN U.S. VORTEX AND THUS
   DRIVING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NRN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS INTO DAY
   6.  MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THUS LITTLE RISK FOR GULF
   COAST CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE LACK OF APPARENT RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND DIVERGENT
   MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER...NO RISK AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
   FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 01/09/2016

Both times they recognize that severe weather could be possible, but the risk are too low to be issued in the forecast.

Here are the storm reports for the 16th.

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