Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (3712)

Records Broken

Hey everyone!

 

I came across this record event report by the National Weather Service in St. Louis.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBIA MISSOURI TODAY...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM WAS SET AT COLUMBIA REGIONAL AIRPORT TODAY
SEPTEMBER 11TH.  THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 64 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1902.


The key note from this is our maximum temperature was reached at 00:54 cdt, or 12:54 AM! As you can see below, the temperature kept dropping until roughly 2:54 PM and it attempted to warm up to no avail and not breaking the 60° mark!!
11SEP14_History

 

Our normal high for September 11th is 81° with a low of 59° for the mean of 70°.  Looking at the data…our high matched what the low was last year!

 

11SEP14_Daily (88)

11SEP14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

We have a strong system moving into Manchuria on September 14th which pumps up a ridge in the few days prior.  This translates to the 21st of September for Central Missouri. Immediately following is a trough that last from September 15th through the 18th with zonal flow between the 18th and 20th of September. So…look for Central Missouri to experience below normal temperatures from the 22nd into the 25th with a moderating trend.  Then, we have yet another “Manchurian candidate” on the 24th that pumps up an even stronger ridge until the 26th.  This means the beginning of October will be well above normal.

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September.  Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe.  Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea.  This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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September As A Whole

The other day I posted a blog regarding the beginning of September.  Upon looking at one of the climate models available to the meteorological community, I decided to follow up on that post.

 

The Climate Forecasting System from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released it’s weeks 1, 2, 3, & 4 outlooks and it fits the pattern as a whole.

 

My August 16th long range discussion

We are continuing the same pattern over and over in the Bering Sea which shows that it will be under a continuous Northwest flow.  That means below normal temperatures up until the first of September there and translating to below normal temperatures until mid-September. It’s debatable as to the main impact, but I can guarantee that it won’t be like the first half of last September where we were 4 degrees above normal until the 16th!

My 28AUG14 Long Range Forecast

The Alaska Extended Discussion yesterday brought up how they were seeing a “fall-like” pattern develop in their 4-8 day range.  This translates to Central MO enjoying the same pattern the 17th through the 21st of September.  We will experience a quick warm up on the 21st and then zonal flow follows until September 26th.

Here is what they were forecasting for the period of 15SEP14-21SEP14 back on the 24th of August.

24AUG14_Week3&4

Weeks 1 & 2 from yesterday…Note what a difference two weeks make!

CFS_week1&2

 

28AUG14 Long Range Discussion

The Alaska Extended Discussion yesterday brought up how they were seeing a “fall-like” pattern develop in their 4-8 day range.  This translates to Central MO enjoying the same pattern the 17th through the 21st of September.  We will experience a quick warm up on the 21st and then zonal flow follows until September 26th.

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

 

Weeks 3 and 4 from yesterday…

CFS_week3&4

 

 

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August Verification

Hello everyone!

 

It’s that time once again to see how we did the month prior!

 

01JUL14 Long Range Discussion

Not to be underminded by the typhoon, a system from the Bering Sea will actually retrograde into the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.  This will pump up a ridge for those in Central Missouri until two systems, one on July 4th, and another on July 7th, bring a quick cool down from the heat.  That being said, the ridge quickly rebuilds.  So…the 24th and 27th of July will see storminess in the KOPN listening area and ridging to start the month of August.

Please reference the next weeks forecast and analysis.

08JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule is showing an East Coast and Great Lakes trough in the beginning of our forecast period from the 9th until the 13th of July.  This translates to the 29th of July into the 3rd of August.  At the same time the trough is in position out East, we will be experiencing above normal temperatures due to an upper level low over Sakhalin Island.  Then, an upper level low sets up shop in the Bering Sea between July 15th and 20th.  This means below normal temperatures from the 5th to the 10th of August.

If we look at the climate data for the last days of July and first 3 days of August, you can see that we experienced a warm up, but just not to the magnitude that I thought it would be. The night time lows were below average enough that even with a high temperature being 88° on the 2nd, we were -3° due to a low of 59°.

Also take note how we were sandwiched between the below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and East Coast and the Southern Plains which validated the first sentence of this discussion.

29JUL_03AUG

14JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule has moderating heights until the 21st, which translates to a warming trend late in the first full week of August.  Then a trough comes in until the 28th.  This trough is stout and has multiple systems rotating around the backside of it to provide Central Missouri with multiple rain chances and quick drop in temperatures until at least the 18th of August.

We reached 90° and 91° on the 5th and 6th of August before the cold front came in and put our high at 79° that day!

 

August 4th-8th

04AUG_08AUG

 

August 7th-18th

07AUG14_18AUG

 

21JUL14 Long Range Discussion

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

14AUG_23AUG

Obviously my placement was incorrect and I will look deeper into this as to why. We didn’t actually reach ‘heat wave’ status until the 23rd as the definition states you need at least 3 days of temperatures above 90°.

 

29JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

The cold front didn’t have the moxie that I thought it would and we quickly had a second heat wave from the 28th to the 31st.

26AUG_Cold_Front

 

07AUG14 Long Range Discussion…

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

Note the two surface low pressures in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas to our Southwest.

01SEP_Cold_Front

30AUG_03SEP

 

Overall, I give myself a ‘B’ due to my inability to gauge the correct strength of the ridge or trough on a few occasions.

 

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03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The common theme among the models is that a system will impact East Asia from September 4th until the 6th with a quick warm up following on the 7th.  This translates to below normal temperatures around the 10th with a gradual warming and spike on the 14th of September.  I am watching an significant upper level low being shown in Southern Siberia and Northern Manchuria between the 14th and 18th.  Placement of the system will be key in the 21st-25th period for Central Missouri.

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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Early September Thoughts in August

07August14 Long Range Discussion…

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

My forecast from the 7th was off and due to events beyond my control, delayed my next forecast for 10 days.  These are the temperature results from 27AUG-03SEP.

27AUG_02SEP_Temps

 

I will be looking deeper into this as the week goes along.  A quick glance shows that a system went through the Bering Sea between the 10th and 13th, so I am taking a guess that it wasn’t as strong as being originally progged.

16AUG14 Long Range Discussion…

We are continuing the same pattern over and over in the Bering Sea which shows that it will be under a continuous Northwest flow.  That means below normal temperatures up until the first of September there and translating to below normal temperatures until mid-September. It’s debatable as to the main impact, but I can guarantee that it won’t be like the first half of last September where we were 4 degrees above normal until the 16th!

Here is the 27AUG14 North American Ensemble Forecasting System’s 8-14 day outlook for the time period of September 4th-11th…

27AUG14_NAEFS

 

Then, here is today’s forecast for the time period of September 11th-18th.

03SEP14_NAEFS

 

I will reitterate how the NAEFS legend shows the probability of above-near-below normal temperatures! Not the actual anomalies that you see in the first graphic in this post! (220)

A Crazy Evening of Rain

In my daily forecast today I had issued a warning to our listeners about flash flooding being a concern.  Words cannot explain how tired I am after following the flash flooding situation that transpired as the evening progressed.

 

At 3:24pm, the National Weather Service in St. Louis, MO issued the first product in the form of a Flash Flood Watch for counties bordering the I-44 corridor and getting as close as Moniteau and Cole Counties until 7pm.


THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI.

At 6:06pm, the NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2am for the KOPN FM listening area for elevated storms with wind and hail being the primary threat.  In fact, the watch was issued almost 20 minutes after a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Moniteau County for winds upwards of 60mph and 1″ hail.

I joined the NWS Chat for media and emergency management roughly around 7:30pm and saw the possibility of training storms along I-70 to our West. For each new storm that would move East of Columbia, there was consistent development of more storms all the way to Warrensburg. At 7:35 I requested from the Meteorologist on Duty about the latest flood guidance because the training storms “have my interest”.

By 7:59pm, it was evident that the pattern at hand was not pushing the storms South and a ‘Areal Flood Advisory’ was issued until 11pm.  At 8:35pm, St. Louis added Boone and Callaway County to the Flash Flood Watch.

 

After a mere 2 hours 45 minutes, a storm spotter 4 miles NE McBaine recorded 2.68″ of rain. In response, the Flash Flood Watch for Boone County was upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning and rightfully so.  Here is the graphic from the Hickson Creek water gauge.

01SEP14_Hickson_Creek_Gauge

Sanborn Field reported 3.48″ since midnight by 9:40! Close to that time, our first road closure, WW at Old Hawthorne Golf Course, came across the wire. In response, the meteorologist felt it was time for some comic relief.

LSX_Report

Yep…you are seeing that correctly.  They put the reporting source as “coast guard”.  When I asked them in a confused fasion, they responded with “They may be able to get to you if this rain doesn’t shift South soon.”

As if our flooding situation wasn’t bad enough, they issued their first tornado warning for Jefferson County outside of St. Louis 20 minutes later!  Multiple tornado warnings followed for the suburbs of St. Louis afterwards.

At 11:09pm and with the rain not letting up, they decided to extend the Flash Flood Warning until 2am.  4.23″ of rain was reported from the cocorahs station just NNW of Columbia. After watching the radar trends, I became increasingly concerned about the radar estimated rainfall in areas between Martinsburg and Wellsville.  Some areas were estimating over 5″ of rain.

LSX_Radar_Estimate

EAX_Radar_Estimates

 

At 12:07 the McBaine report earlier had increased to 4.84″.  Immediately following they extended the Flash Flood Warning until 8am. Jefferson Farms had recorded 4.92″, Capen Park at 4.41″, and Sanborn at 4.62″ before their gauges reset for the next day!

The final report from the cocorahs station, one mile NNW of Columbia, was sent at 12:10am with 5.83″!!!

 

The latest gauge reading from Hickson Creek has it at 18.27′. On a historical note…the highest reading was 21.88′ on 30APR09.

01SEP14_Hickson_Creek2

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19AUG14 Freedom Forum Interview

 

Hey everyone!  I was able to obtain the .mp3 file of the interview!!! The interview doesn’t start until roughly 60 minute mark on winamp.

 

Again, Dr. Lupo of the University of Missouri Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences was also the guest of the show.

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2014 Summer Statistics Released

The National Weather Service in St. Louis, Missouri didn’t waste any time on posting the results for the summer of 2014.

 

First, here is what the analogs were saying…

 

Temps

El_Nino_Temperatures

 

Precipitation

El_Nino_Precip

Drought Index

El_Nino_Drought

 

Here are the results…

 

Temperatures

Summer_2014_Temp_Anomalies

 

 

Precipitation

Summer_2014_Precip

 

The Columbia airport was -.5° below normal and -3.73″ below normal for precipitation. (80)

Revisiting Model Performance…If You Can Call It That

Hey everyone,

 

After noticing Dr. Ryan Maue’s tweet yesterday regarding the GFS Northern Hemisphere in the 5 day range, I figured it wouldn’t hurt to look at it’s medium to long range performance in the PNA region.

Here is his tweet for the GFS 5 day in the Northern Hemisphere.

GFS_Maue_Tweet

the European wasn’t too far behind…

Maue_Day5_Euro_Tweet

 

Soo…let’s give it a go.

500mb Anomaly Correlation for Day 8.

29AUG14_PNA_500mb_8day_Correlation

and Day 10

29AUG14_PNA_500mb_10day_Correlation

 

Here is the WPC Day 7 verification for the CONUS

29AUG14_WPC_Verification (126)