Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (3947)

24OCT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is showing a system move through East Asia on October 26th with ridging following between October 27th and 29th.  This will line up with a storm on the 2nd of November with ridging between the 3rd and 6th of November here in Columbia.  Then, another system hits East Asia on November 5th and that matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November.

The Bering Sea will continue the progressive pattern that was advertised last week.  A system moves through it’s forecast area between the 25th and 27th of October.  Heights immediately respond with warmth building between another storm at the end of the month and beginning of November. Just like the prior though, ridging comes in like a lion and warms us up.  The timeline of events for Central Missouri in response is as such.  There will be storms during November 14th and 16th, then warming from November 16th through the 18th with a shortwave between November 19th and 21st and another ridge after November 22nd.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

  (83)

NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Yesterday I attended a weather themed conference in St. Louis to “pitch” the Bering Sea Rule to other meteorologist, and scientist,  in the field. 

pic_shot_1413912295269

pic_shot_1413912218712

FB_IMG_1413891580029

 Below is the information about what it entailed…

NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop will beheld in St. Louis, Missouri during 20-23 October 2014. The workshop will address the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, and will focus on five major themes:

  1. Prediction, monitoring, and variability of the hydroclimate with an emphasis on the Midwest during the growing season.

  2. The prediction, attribution, and assessment of extreme events.

  3. Sub-seasonal to interannual predictability.

  4. Latest developments in models, tools, and techniques in relation to improving climate prediction.

  5. Developing applications to improve climate services.

The workshop will be hosted by St. Louis University (SLU) and co-hosted by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is a cooperating sponsor.

The workshop will feature daytime oral presentations, invited speakers, and panel discussions with a poster session event on one evening. For students, some travel support and discounted registration might be available if budget allows.

IMG_20141022_090834

pic_shot_1413896718653

The oral presentations started out on a great note with a few overviews on the Winter of 2013/2014, which averaged at -5.266 here in Columbia!  The other 22 oral presentations that I listened to were amazing and I learned more than I ever thought I would an, as such, am hooked on future conferences to take part in!

IMG_20141021_163529

Above is the Bering Sea Rule research team’s poster right before the doors were opened for the attendees to move from poster to poster asking questions.  The doors were opened approximately around 6:15pm and I didn’t leave until 8:20pm.  During the poster session, I explained our research to roughly a dozen people.  The feedback was upbeat and a few of them even gave me suggestions on how to “elevate” the research with various tools available that I wasn’t aware of.

Needless to say, it was an experience that I will never forget and during down time, I was reading a great book from an Metamora Township High School Class of ’92 alumni of mine, Kathryn Miles titled, Super Storm Nine Days Inside Hurricane Sandy.  A must read!

IMG_20141021_035741

(95)

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion

First things first…I need to apologize for the wording of my 10OCT14 Long Range Discussion.  Since I wasn’t specific on various line items, it was very confusing…even to me.  The outlook from 02OCT14 is on track.

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27th.  For Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

  (150)

Finally…the September Verification Forecast

Well…My sincerest apologies on not getting this out in a decent amount of time.  Let’s shoot from the hip.

 

07AUG14 Long Range Discussion

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

The result…

04SEP14

Central Missouri is in the .5° –  1.0° above normal. Not only that, but you can see that all around us the temperatures are warmer.

 

16AUG14 Long Range Discussion

We are continuing the same pattern over and over in the Bering Sea which shows that it will be under a continuous Northwest flow.  That means below normal temperatures up until the first of September there and translating to below normal temperatures until mid-September. It’s debatable as to the main impact, but I can guarantee that it won’t be like the first half of last September where we were 4 degrees above normal until the 16th!

The result…

14SEP14

 

As you can see, the time period between the 5th and 14th of September we were between 2.5° and 3.0° below normal.

28AUG14 Long Range Discussion part 1…

The Alaska Extended Discussion yesterday brought up how they were seeing a “fall-like” pattern develop in their 4-8 day range.  This translates to Central MO enjoying the same pattern the 17th through the 21st of September.

The result is spot on…

20SEP14

28AUG14 Long Range Discussion part 2…

We will experience a quick warm up on the 21st and then zonal flow follows until September 26th.

26SEP14

 

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

30SEP14

 

Once again, the Bering Sea Rule has shown that there is a reason why I am taking the bsr to NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Poster

 

Overall score…an A- for the early call of below normal even though we were cooler than those around us. (157)

Where Are The Brazilian Model Huggers?

In the meteorological community, there are quite a few that love posting the Brazilian model when it shows cold and snow for the upcoming winter.  Of course, to show their bias…they don’t show the model when it shows warmth.  Just wait until it gets closer to winter and you will see a flurry of Facebook ‘shares’ and/or Twitter ‘retweets’ of those specific meteorologist and enthusiast alike.

 

Below are the 500mb and surface temperature anomalies for the Dec-Jan-February period in North America from the updated model this month.

500mb

Brazilian_500mb

 

Surface

Brazilian

All things considered…the surface and 500mb charts don’t match up.  If the lower anomalies over Upper Midwest and Great Lakes were to be taken seriously, that area of the country would not be seeing the slightly above normal temperatures as seen on the surface chart.  Both coast though would conceivably see above normal temperatures per the 500mb chart though. (436)

10OCT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Vongfong recurves late on the 11th into the 12th of October, weakening as it hits Japan.  The height falls, or trough, that is left behind last until the 18th.  This will translate into Central Missouri having below normal temperatures from October 19th until the 25th.  A ridge than develops and stays for 3 days until yet another trough develops and breaks it down.  I believe the long range of the GFS is bringing ridging into East Asia too quickly afterwards.

The Bering Sea is showing a volatile pattern during this forecast period.  We have ridging until the 14th of October, which means we will experience warmth late in the month and early November.  Timing of this ridge is crucial as when it gets broken down needs to be close to the Typhoon Rule section above.  One or two days below normal temperatures until the 17th of October, or late in the first week of November for us, as a trough breaks down the original ridge and then another ridge comes in it’s heals until the 20th.  The GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

  (234)

Updated 48 Hour Rainfall Amounts

Hey everyone!

I just pulled this image off of the Weather Prediction Center’s QPF, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, page.

 

09OCT14_48hr_qpf

 

Going into more detail, it looks like there will be two waves of precipitation.  The first will be late tonight into the morning commute to work.  Then, we will have another wave come through this evening.  Again, this is when we will see the bulk of our rain.  However, waves will travel along the backside of the trough providing “instability showers” that will give us brief spurts of rain much like the past two days when one area of Columbia had rain and another didn’t.

 

And you wonder why a meteorologist’s job is so difficult? lol (142)

Bi-Polar Models? Surely You Jest!

I know, I know…y’all are getting tired of me banging the drum on the performance of the models.  However, I just can’t pass this one up!

 

Below you will find the Global Forecasting System’s late night model run…focused on October 21st at 7pm.

00Z_07OCT14_gfs

 

A beautiful trough over the Eastern United States.  In line with what I said back on 25SEP14.

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7thThis translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

and followed on 02OCT14 in the Typhoon Rule section…

Typhoon Phanfone starts its recurve on the 5th of October which gives Mid-Missouri it’s response on October12th. Then, slow ridging follows between the 7th and 10th of October in East Asia which allows for a recovery here starting on the 14thThe GFS Ensembles support the European model suites better than the GFS Operational for TD 19W (Vongfong).  That being said, look for the first recurve close to 130°E on the 10th and the recurve that takes it away from Japan is on the next day.  That translates to a quick cold front on the 17th here and another, sharper and stronger, one follows in it’s heals.  Much like what we are experiencing this weekend.

Now…let’s look at the run from this morning focused, once again, on the 21st of October at 7pm.

12Z_07OCT14_gfs

Disbelief

 

That’s even before looking at the ensemble packages of the same model run!

12Z_07OCT14_gefs

Star_Trek_Facepalm (375)

North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Word of Caution Follow Up…

Back on 28SEP14, I posted a blog write up titled…

 

North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Word of Caution

Now…besides the obvious items that were brought up then, I was looking at PDO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, data and found more support for my words of caution.

 

Below you will see the correlation graphic of what happens during a +PDO.  Central Missouri experiences between a .2 & .3 negative correlation. At the basic level, when the PDO is positive, we will see below normal temperatures.  The research that I have been performing in line with the Bering Sea Rule shows that since November of 2011  Columbia specifically has a -.3541689062 correlation.

PDO

 

 

Note the trend shown below with August being the last recorded dataset.

2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67

 

Dr. Lupo has also performed some research on the subject with a Mizzou graduate student, Ms. Birk, back in 2010…

  • Birk, K., A.R. Lupo, P.E. Guinan, and C.E. Barbieri, 2010:
    The interannual variability of Midwestern temperatures and precipitation as related to the ENSO and PDO. Atmofera, 23, 95 – 128.

(308)

Another Heavy Rain Event On It’s Way

Hey everyone,

 

Hurricane Simon is currently off the Baja Peninsula and will produce yet another heavy rain event for Central Missouri.  Graphics courtesy of Jesse Ferrell at Accuweather.

simon1004

 

What makes the situation worse is the combination of the remanants of Hurricane Simon, coupled with the typhoon rule response to Typhoon Phanphone, gives the ability of the atmosphere to squeeze the most amount of moisture as possible.

 

As it stands right now, Columbia could easily see 2″+ of rain once again.

Day_7_QPF

Remember…

 

Turn around don’t drown!

tadd (259)