Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

WISN-Milwaukee

Scott Sabol-Fox 8 Cleveland

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

 

Our updated data website is organicforecasting.com

 

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Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It’s amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole…

  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society’s New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association’s Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou’s meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let’s go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.

Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.

 

 

 

A few tweets early this month…

 

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What’s All The Hoopla About…Part Two!

In my hoopla post on December 1st, I discussed how the #BSR saw the pattern change to cold that we are, and will, experience in the coming days.  Let’s focus on the last section of that post.

 

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

Note the ridge with the highest anomalies just South of the Aleutian Island chain and moving into the Eastern Bering Sea.

BSR Map

Our current lag time is running at 17 days.

BSR Lag

Here is the NOAA CPC 8-14 day analog.

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What’s All The Hoopla About??!!

Now, those that know me know I’m just poking fun with the above.  Why do you ask?  Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.

Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!

I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.

Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.

Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.

The strength lies in the West and “bleeds” east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!

Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our “trifecta” of Organic Forecasting.

As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.

For good measure, let’s add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak…

Hmmm…a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th.  Coincidence…I think not.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

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Busy As All Get Out!!

Hello everyone!

It has been quite crazy for me.  My job at the Department of Veterans Affairs has been working me hard and it’s a bit to get use to.

I attended the NWAS Annual Meeting on September 14th to present the Recurring Rossby Wave Train research and feel it went very well.  Once the NWAS updates the presentations to become available I’ll let you know!  A shout out to those who continue to support me via the GoFundMe account! Without your support, I would not have the ability to attend these conferences!

One a side note, I had the luxury to discuss the #organicforecasting method to Ginger Zee of GMA!

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We Have Been Parodied!

Hello everyone!

Sorry that it has been some time since I’ve posted but life events have taken their toll on my ability to keep up here.  Since my post last month the popularity of our #organicforecasting method has gained some steam.  This, in due part, because of a few meteorologist who have been able to utilize our methodology very well in forecasting past the models current 14 days.  Not only that, but they have the ability to let their viewers know that when models go through the typical “cha-cha”, that they need to be confident that the #organicforecasting method holds true.

Yes, we have seen some set backs here and there since I’ve started utilizing this method in earnest over 3 years ago.  However, that being said, our success has outpaced the set backs. We will continue to learn from the bust potentials that we’ve gone through and strive to improve the forecasting method.

With the above in mind, I found out four days ago that someone in Boston, MA created a parody twitter account to bring out our “failures”.  One issue that I have is where they came after one of the meteorologist who utilizes our system, Michael Clark of BAM Chase.

Here is the tweet in question…

I know the ESRL map is too small to figure out the dates, but they are from June 23rd, 2016 through June 27th, 2016. A blown up version…

 So…Michael had stated it was going to get cooler during that period.  Let’s look at the 5 days prior to that…June 17th, 2016 through June 22, 2016.

The above maps are utilizing the same reanalysis set from the Earth Systems Research Library so there is no confusion. As for the legend, even though the numbers on the right are set different, the range is still at .5 for each color code.

Let’s place them side by side and you tell me if what we said came true?

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The Weather Junkies Interview

Hey gang,

Sorry that it took a while to update the blog with the latest #organicforecasting interview, but here it is.

Ep 25: Long Range Forecasts Using Bering Sea & Typhoon Rule w/ JD Renken

 

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SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh’s January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.

Look at what the BSR is showing…

One might look at the above maps and think…how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such…The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further…the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS

Euro

On a side note…here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th…

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support…

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini’s research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

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Severe Weather To Open April

Hello everyone!

As stated earlier in the January 30th blog regarding our Recurring Rossby Wave Train Severe Weather Test, the beginning of April was highlighted.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days

12/2302/1304/0505/27 (Ref)

The BSR is showing this a tad bit early as the potential is showing up on April 3rd.

This time period was also highlighted on the CFS forecast initiated back on March 4th. Note the yellow ‘x’ on the 4th. That being said, the period from the 4th until the 9th in the most recent initiation looks good too.

 When you click on the ‘x’, it yields this.

To go along with the earlier statement regarding the period between the 4th and the 9th…check out this 21-25 day 500mb forecast via the #rrwt.

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