Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (4532)

It’s Official!

Hello gang!

 

First, I apologize for not updating the blog in over a month.  The month of February has been crazy as I’ve moved into a new place, am still working 55 hours per week at my non-meteorology job, have been hired on as a full-time benefit eligible employee at said job, and working on my immediate family relationships.  So, as you can guess, my time on the computer was not important.

Regarding our research, I received this via email today.  Feel free to have a gander about what we discussed at the conference last October in St. Louis, MO!

http://issuu.com/climatesti/docs/39cdpwdigest (258)

29JAN15 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule is showing a system move through the Far East on the 30th of January with ridging between the 2nd and 3rd of February before another system on the 4th of February.  Then a clipper like system moves in from the Northwest on the 5th of February to usher in a cold spell that last from the 7th of February into the 13th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a storm on February 6th with a slight warm up on February 9th and 10th before another storm on the 11th.  The kicker is a clipper on the 12th which ushers in cold air that last all the way until February 20th. This matches the long range discussion on the 19th of this month.

The Bering Sea has an impressive ridge complex after a storm on the 31st of January to the West of Shemya Island.  This ridging will continue into the 6th of February until it retrogrades Westward allowing a Northerly flow to take over and bring temperatures below normal until the 12th of February.  The Central Missouri correlation means that from February 18th into February 26th we will see above normal temperatures.  The cold then hits us on February 27th into March 4th as a result per our research.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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OU Tornado Forecasting Workshop Series

Hello all!

 

While Southern New England gets ready for a whopper of a storm, I found out that OU is having a workshop on tornado forecasting.  You don’t have to be present to enjoy this as they are streaming on Youtube!

Tornado_Forecasting_SPC

Here are the dates!

February 3rd – Sounding analysis and synoptic meteorology (lifted parcels, Q-G theory, etc.)

February 10th – Severe storm ingredients (low-level moisture and lapse rates)

February 17th – Severe storm ingredients (vertical shear and lift)

March 3rd – Supercell and tornado conceptual models (plus composite parameters)

March 10th – Tornado patterns (synoptic and mesoscale)

March 24th – Convective mode forecasting (squall lines vs. discrete cells)

April 7th – Tornado parameter climatology (spatial and temporal distributions of CAPE and shear)

April 14th – Numerical models and statistical techniques (convective schemes and post processing)

April 21st – Real-time forecasting exercise

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19JAN15 Long Range Discussion

Hey gang!

Yep…it’s been busy and hectic again for the past week.  Gotta love trying to hold a full time job, continue making contacts within NOAA regarding the abstract, and show my children that they are still important in my life.

 

 

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has ridging developing on the 20th and 21st of January when a system comes through on the 22nd to break it down.  Then a system comes from the Northwest the next day, 23rd, when zonal flow follows between the 25th and 27th of January.  This correlates to Central Missouri in that we see warming on the 27th and 28th until a strong cold front comes on the 29th with a clipper to follow and bring more cold air on the 30th.  Now, zonal flow is a slow moderation in temperatures between February 1st and the 3rd.

The Bering Sea has a broad trough well past a system on the 25th of January moving along South of Shemya Island.  Ridging follows on the 28th of January due to a storm over the Kamchatka Penninsula. This correlates to Central Missouri in that we will be below normal in temperatures from February 10th through the 16th.  A quick spike in temperatures start on February 17th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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Late January Warm Up Call

Weenies

 

This was the call  I made back on the day before Christmas. Take a look at some long range guidance…

 

CPC 6-10 day outlooks from 11JAN15

610temp_11JAN15

Now on to the 8-14 day

814temp_11JAN15

Note the progression and how the chances of an above normal temperature probability goes away from the West which supports the -PNA call.

 

Now on to the NAEFS from 10JAN15.

10JAN15_NAEFS

 

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08JAN15 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has an active period in the cards.  There are shortwaves impacting East Asia today, 10th, and 11th of January.  Then, we see ridging develop between the 13th and 16th.  Then, a couple more storms on the 16th, 18th, and 20th before zonal flow takes over.  This correlates to Central Missouri in systems on the 15th, 17th, and 18th before we see ridging develop between the 20th and 23rd.  The next storms will be warm storms on the 23rd, 25th, and 27th with quick shots of cold following before a gradual warming follows due to zonal flow.

The Bering Sea has multiple storms stay South of the Aleutian Islands. This correlates to cooler weather in the Deep South with warmth above the Mason-Dixon line.  Look for warmer conditions in the Bering Sea stretching from today until the 20th of January.  A storm of the Southeast Aluetians will bring cold air back into the region afterwards.  Look for a warmer than normal correlation to Central Missouri between January 28th and February 9th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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January 7th Clipper Forecast…25 and 10 Days Prior!!!

Hey everyone!

 

While looking through the Accuweather.com forums it dawned on me that I wanted to see how well I did on the January 7th call.  Without further hesitation, here we go…

 

Bering Sea Section of 13DEC14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea shows a strong storm developing on the 15th.  We then see a gradual warming trend until a spike in temperatures prior to an even stronger storm on the 18th of December.  This translates to a strong storm around January 7th here.  My personal thoughts are that this will provide areas of the North Central Plains with a significant snowstorm and well above normal temperatures for Central Missouri prior to it. Northwest flow follows with cold air until the 10th.

Typhoon Rule Section of 28DEC14 Long Range Discussion

The typhoon rule has a system impacting Japan today with slight ridging before another system on the 30th.  A potent trough takes over and more energy comes from the Northwest on New Year’s Day.  Then, zonal flow takes over before a slow ridging and storm on the 5th of January. The trough that follows hangs around to at least the 9th of January.  For Central Missouri, this means a storm on January 4th with slight warm up before another storm on the 6th when the cold shot hits and a clipper comes down the pipe on January 7th.  A gradual warm up ensues until the next storm on January 12th with more cold to follow until at least January 16th.

From the St. Louis National Weather Service AFD, Area Forecast Discussion…note the similarities?
Attention for tonight will turn to the deformation zone which will
slide through the northwest third of the CWFA. Mid/upper level
forcing mechanisms do not look overly impressive as shortwave
dampens as it heads northeastward. Precipitation amounts not
surprisingly do not look too high given the lack of strong upper
air forcing for ascent with amounts generally under a quarter of an
inch. Thermal profiles suggest precipitation starting as rain within
the precip shield tonight before slowly transitioning to snow as
a) the BL cools sufficiently and b) midlevels re-saturate to
reintroduce the presence of ice crystals. All in all…appears to be
roughly a ~3 hour window for possible snow accumulations. Tack on
poor antecedant conditions…i.e. a warm/wet ground…snowfall amounts
should be light. Highest amounts should still be in Knox County topping
out around an inch.

A secondary shortwave will follow quickly on the heels of its
predecessor. Left mention of flurries into the day on Sunday due to
the forcing from this shortwave and broad cyclonic flow aloft.
Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday than today with
non-diurnal temperatures continuing for a large portion of the area.

(Sunday Night – Friday)

Rest of the valid forecast period still appears dry. Mid/upper level
flow will amplify across the CONUS with a ridge along the west coast
and a broad trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
First in what will likely be a series of upper-level disturbances will
transverse the Upper Midwest and slide into the mid-Atlantic region
on Monday night. Maintained sch PoPs for far northeastern sections of
the area which may get clipped by clipper. Most of area still looks dry
however there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in eventual track.

Pattern looks even further amplified heading into midweek with a
much stronger shot of arctic air in store. Certainly looks by far and
away the coldest air we have seen thus far this mild winter season.
Look for temperatures some 20+ degrees below normal day/night Wed/Thu.
Lows will likely even dip below zero over portions of the area Thu
morning…which is quite impressive given the high likelihood of no
snow cover…just goes to show how truly impressive the air mass is.

 

One note regarding the last paragraph, the fact that we have no snow cover will allow for a gradual rebound of temperatures as stated in my earlier forecast discussions.

Here are some graphics…

Day 3 Snowfall ≥4″ probabilities…my call on the North Central Plains was off as the clipper doesn’t get it’s moxie going until the Northern Midwest.

 

 

day3_psnow_gt_04

 

Day 3 CONUS map

9jhwbg_conus

 

The WPC 500mb charts for Days 3-7…focuses on the NW flow and it relaxes as we approach the 9th.

5dayfcst500_wbg (466)

ENSO Update

Hello everyone!

 

With the new year only a mere hours away, I have decided to look at the various ENSO indicies that we look at.

Take a look at my post from a little bit over a month ago.  The Kelvin Wave was hitting a brick wall in cooler than normal anomalies in the subsurface region of 90°W.  As a result, the Region 1+2 section took a nose dive…

nino12

 

Other regions in December weren’t fairing too well either…

nino4

nino34

 

Let’s look at the subsurface as of 24DEC14…

wkxzteq_anm

 

As you can see, the Kelvin Wave was still moving towards the East. Per the Region 1+2 graphic above, you can see a recovery.  This recovery will move into the .5° anomaly and, mixed with the steady Region 3, shows the Modoki calls are without cause!  Also, note how Region 4 and 3.4 focusing that region 3.4 is how the Climate Prediction Center determines El Niño.  Yet, Region 3 is steady as a rock.  I can see Region 3 spiking soon with the warmest subsurface anomalies being right below it.

nino3

 

An East Central Based El Niño looks to be in the cards for the first part of January.  Come after the 15th, the Kelvin Wave will loose it’s moxie and we will see cooling yet again.  I am looking at a very active, cold, and snowy late January through March as a result.

Please take a moment and read the weekly ENSO update on the CPC website here in pdf form! (457)