Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

WISN-Milwaukee

Scott Sabol-Fox 8 Cleveland

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

 

Our updated data website is organicforecasting.com

 

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What Happened With The BSR?!

Hello everyone! I’ve decided to follow up on an article that I was interviewed for with The Weatherboy.

First, let’s look at the outlooks from an earlier interview on February 12th

After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

Here are the stats for Bangor, ME in February and the first part of March. Bangor, ME is our correlation point with Kodiak Island, AK.

As you can see, the volatile pattern is there.  The cold snaps of late February didn’t materialize because of the Pacific jet coming back to life per this graphic. So my comment of them being “muted” was spot on for the later part of February.

The low pressure well of the West Coast acts as a catalyst to increase the speed of the jet once it turns zonal over the CONUS.

Another method that we utilize in the BSR is our 3 Day ROC, or Rate of Change. The orange line designates our correlation on Kodiak Island, while the green designation is Bangor, ME.

Note how the 3 day ROC basically nailed the pattern from 2/12/17-3/10/17. This can be confirmed by looking at our 3 day ROC pR option below.

The above graphics were brought up in the Weatherboy article

We keep a detailed record of what the BSR’s repeating pattern, its so-called ‘lag’, is every day.

One thing I’d like to bring up is how the BSR did show a storm in the MidAtl and Northeast on March 13th as seen below.

A dissipating low pressure just South of Cape Hatteras, NC with two shortwaves to it’s West.  One stretching in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the other from the Ohio Valley to Cuba.  It’s obvious that these two shortwaves ‘phased’ and gave us…

Finally…there is a forecast method that is utilized by multiple NWS offices which uses Hovmoller graphics. This “in-house” method stated that the severe weather threat for the Plains and Upper Midwest actually merged with a long range “frequency”, or “signal”, to create the above storm off the Northeast coast.

Finally, be careful of anyone on “wxtwitter” or various Facebook groups that claimed they foretold a big storm coming well in advance of 20 days! Them saying that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast stood a chance for snow is a huge difference than calling for what was on the table!

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Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Looks Familiar

Hey everyone!

Here is the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook issued last night for the period of March 4th-10th.

Here is what the BSR was showing on February 20th.

That being said, the BSR ESRL maps have a lag of developed and we can see the pattern 6 days earlier as the surface and 500mb maps are produced.

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The BSR’s Use Across The Lower 48

One of the meteorologist who utilizes the #BSR is Jeremy Nelson, formally of WISN in Milwaukee and now at WJCL in Savannah, GA.

Recently, Jeremy posted a blog regarding the daily record amount of rain that Savannah received…1.88″ to be exact.

Here is what the #BSR was showing…

Note the multiple low pressure systems along the Gulf Coast and a strengthening low in the Trinidad, CO region.

Here is the observed surface map for 12z 21FEB17..

and the 500mb map for the same date/time…

The OBS surface map above has multiple low pressure’s along the Gulf Coast that are occluded.

First mention of the end of February was back on January 29th.

Jeremy followed up regarding the end of the month for a strong system to impact the SE on January 9th.

A few tweets about a warmup around the 11th and 12th of March…

and another warm up immediately following a chance of rain…

We are looking forward to his verification and #bsr intro blog post for those in Savannah, GA!

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Friend’s Bering Sea Rule Forecast

Back on February 1st, I had a good friend of mine request a forecast for the period of February 19th and 20th in St. Louis.

At the time, I was working a ton of overtime and couldn’t get back to her right away.  However, on February 3rd I responded.

Here are the BSR depictions on February 2nd for the 19th and 20th.

This is the 00z 20FEB17 500mb OBS map…

Note the troughs over the NW and NE with a ridge between.

Note the Southerly to Southeasterly flow at 500mb.

The high temperature for St. Louis on February 19th was 72°.

While this is the forecast for February 20th.

 

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Severe Weather Signals

Hello all,

We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on.  Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.

What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather.  Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.

The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.

Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.

Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.

Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…

 

 

 

 

Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.

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An Early Look Into February Verification

Hey everyone,

While looking at the long range thread of Accuweather.com’s forums, it moved me to look up a few things.

The BSR depiction of February 5th-9th at the 500mb level.

Here is what the European model was showing for 7am today back on January 26th.

 This is what the late night run of the GFS showed last night for the same time period.

 

The GEFS 5 day from February 5th-10th has this.

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January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

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CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

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December Verification

Hello everyone!

As promised, I have finally gotten around to looking at December’s #bsr verification.

Here is the BSR depiction, both surface and 500mb, for December 1st.

The surface and 500mb of what actually happened.

It goes without saying that for an 18 day lag time, the #bsr did very well! An occluded system off of Southern New England, three low pressure systems over the desert Southwest, and a clipper coming down the pipe in the Northern Plains.

Fast forward a few days to December 6th.

The BSR depicted a system in the Northern Plains with a dominate trough stretching into the Pacific Northwest aided by a dual upper level low pattern, along with a system moving into the Southeast with ridging in front.

Next is the cold shot for the 12th-20th…

 December 12th

The BSR had ridging pushing up the East coast with a mean trough over the Plains and West. This did very well to start off.

December 13th

The BSR had a strong storm system developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley that never materialized for the CONUS which skewed the next couple of days..

December 14th

 

 

December 15th

 

 

The BSR had a trough focused on the Ohio Valley with ridging off the East Coast and another trough in the West. East coast didn’t do too bad, but the trough for the West was too far East.

December 16th

 

 

The BSR had another strong system moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley to which I was warning about a severe weather event.

December 17th

 

 

The severe weather event that I thought would start on the 16th was delayed by a day. Ridging over the East coast did well, but the trough was too far East on the BSR maps.  I would think that the lag time was a day off.

December 18th

 

 

December 19th

 

Something else that the BSR keyed in on was the ULL in area of the Baja Peninsula.

December 20th

 

Early in December everyone was going nuts over the ridging in the Bering Sea which promoted a -WPO & -EPO combination and allowed the influx of cold air during the above time period. While they were doing so, I kept warning them that they won’t be happy during the week of Christmas because the warmth would return with a vengeance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…off to work I go! If you have any questions email me at kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

Also, make sure you tune in tonight for a streaming show that Dr. Lupo and I will be interviewed on regarding the #bsr and #organicforecasting!

 

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The Bering Sea Rule Is Gaining Attention

Hello everyone!

First, and foremost, I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize for not updating the blog as much as I need to.  My full-time job at the Veterans Affairs Hospital has me working 20 hours of overtime a week so that cuts down on my ability to look over things.

In 2013, I got in contact with Accuweather’s long range forecasting team and established some good friendships within the company outside of that said team.  One friend that I still speak with on a regular basis is Mark. Mark is no longer at Accuweather, but writes articles for Weatherboy.com.  For the past 1.5 months, I have contributed my thoughts to his articles located below.

December 21st, 2016

Looking Beyond a Two Week Forecast

January 3rd, 2017
January 9th, 2017
January 19th, 2017
We were discussing on FB Messenger that a new article will be created in a week for multiple severe weather signals that we are seeing via the Bering Sea Rule, Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Also, take a gander at searching on Twitter for people utilizing the #bsr to forecast between 17-21 days in advance! Those out east are starting to catch on, especially when it comes to the threat for the period between February 8th-10th! The only bad part is you have to weed through the other hits for #bsr.

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