Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (4902)

Weather Ready Ambassadors

Hello everyone!

 

KOPN 89.5 FM has been granted the Weather Ready Ambassador designation.  What is this?

 

The Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™ initiative is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) effort to formally recognize NOAA partners who are improving the nation’s readiness, responsiveness, and overall resilience against extreme weather, water, and climate events. As a WRN Ambassador, partners commit to working with NOAA and other Ambassadors to strengthen national resilience against extreme weather. In effect, the WRN Ambassador initiative helps unify the efforts across government, non-profits, academia, and private industry toward making the nation more ready, responsive, and resilient against extreme environmental hazards.Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is a strategic outcome where society’s response should be equal to the risk from all extreme weather, water, and climate hazards.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is a:

  • Unifying effort;
  • Action-oriented;
  • Inclusive; and
  • Force multiplier (i.e., new partnerships lead to even more partnership opportunities).

WRN Ambassadors serve a pivotal role in affecting societal change — helping to build a nation that is ready, responsive, and resilient to the impacts of extreme weather and water events.
To be officially recognized as a WRN Ambassador, an organization must commit to:

  • Promoting Weather-Ready Nation messages and themes to their stakeholders;
  • Engaging with NOAA personnel on potential collaboration opportunities;
  • Sharing their success stories of preparedness and resiliency;
  • Serving as an example by educating employees on workplace preparedness

As a WRN Ambassador, you will serve as a change agent and leader in your community. You will inspire others to be better informed and prepared, helping to minimize or even avoid the impacts of these natural disasters.
To support your efforts, NOAA can:

  • Provide outreach content about creating a Weather-Ready Nation;
  • Explore innovative approaches for collaboration with your organization;
  • Assist with StormReady®/TsunamiReady™ opportunities for communities;
  • Recognize your organization as a WRN Ambassador; and
  • Share the WRN Ambassador logo for your use.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation requires more than government alone. It requires the entire Weather Enterprise to provide information for better community, business, and personal decision making, and innovative partnerships across all segments of society. We must involve everyone in an effort to move people – and society – toward heeding warnings, taking action, and influencing their circles of family, friends, and social network to act appropriately.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is the connecting hub of a vast network of federal, state, and local government agencies; emergency managers and city planners; researchers, the media; the insurance industry; nonprofit organizations; the private sector; and many others who are working together to address the impacts of extreme weather on daily life.

Together we will inform and empower communities, businesses, and people to make pre-event decisions that can be life-saving and prevent or limit devastating economic losses. We are a nation of many communities, and it is only through connected communities that we will achieve this goal.

 

WRN_Ambassador_logo (181)

It’s Official!

Hello gang!

 

First, I apologize for not updating the blog in over a month.  The month of February has been crazy as I’ve moved into a new place, am still working 55 hours per week at my non-meteorology job, have been hired on as a full-time benefit eligible employee at said job, and working on my immediate family relationships.  So, as you can guess, my time on the computer was not important.

Regarding our research, I received this via email today.  Feel free to have a gander about what we discussed at the conference last October in St. Louis, MO!

http://issuu.com/climatesti/docs/39cdpwdigest (464)

29JAN15 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule is showing a system move through the Far East on the 30th of January with ridging between the 2nd and 3rd of February before another system on the 4th of February.  Then a clipper like system moves in from the Northwest on the 5th of February to usher in a cold spell that last from the 7th of February into the 13th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a storm on February 6th with a slight warm up on February 9th and 10th before another storm on the 11th.  The kicker is a clipper on the 12th which ushers in cold air that last all the way until February 20th. This matches the long range discussion on the 19th of this month.

The Bering Sea has an impressive ridge complex after a storm on the 31st of January to the West of Shemya Island.  This ridging will continue into the 6th of February until it retrogrades Westward allowing a Northerly flow to take over and bring temperatures below normal until the 12th of February.  The Central Missouri correlation means that from February 18th into February 26th we will see above normal temperatures.  The cold then hits us on February 27th into March 4th as a result per our research.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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OU Tornado Forecasting Workshop Series

Hello all!

 

While Southern New England gets ready for a whopper of a storm, I found out that OU is having a workshop on tornado forecasting.  You don’t have to be present to enjoy this as they are streaming on Youtube!

Tornado_Forecasting_SPC

Here are the dates!

February 3rd – Sounding analysis and synoptic meteorology (lifted parcels, Q-G theory, etc.)

February 10th – Severe storm ingredients (low-level moisture and lapse rates)

February 17th – Severe storm ingredients (vertical shear and lift)

March 3rd – Supercell and tornado conceptual models (plus composite parameters)

March 10th – Tornado patterns (synoptic and mesoscale)

March 24th – Convective mode forecasting (squall lines vs. discrete cells)

April 7th – Tornado parameter climatology (spatial and temporal distributions of CAPE and shear)

April 14th – Numerical models and statistical techniques (convective schemes and post processing)

April 21st – Real-time forecasting exercise

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19JAN15 Long Range Discussion

Hey gang!

Yep…it’s been busy and hectic again for the past week.  Gotta love trying to hold a full time job, continue making contacts within NOAA regarding the abstract, and show my children that they are still important in my life.

 

 

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has ridging developing on the 20th and 21st of January when a system comes through on the 22nd to break it down.  Then a system comes from the Northwest the next day, 23rd, when zonal flow follows between the 25th and 27th of January.  This correlates to Central Missouri in that we see warming on the 27th and 28th until a strong cold front comes on the 29th with a clipper to follow and bring more cold air on the 30th.  Now, zonal flow is a slow moderation in temperatures between February 1st and the 3rd.

The Bering Sea has a broad trough well past a system on the 25th of January moving along South of Shemya Island.  Ridging follows on the 28th of January due to a storm over the Kamchatka Penninsula. This correlates to Central Missouri in that we will be below normal in temperatures from February 10th through the 16th.  A quick spike in temperatures start on February 17th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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Late January Warm Up Call

Weenies

 

This was the call  I made back on the day before Christmas. Take a look at some long range guidance…

 

CPC 6-10 day outlooks from 11JAN15

610temp_11JAN15

Now on to the 8-14 day

814temp_11JAN15

Note the progression and how the chances of an above normal temperature probability goes away from the West which supports the -PNA call.

 

Now on to the NAEFS from 10JAN15.

10JAN15_NAEFS

 

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08JAN15 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has an active period in the cards.  There are shortwaves impacting East Asia today, 10th, and 11th of January.  Then, we see ridging develop between the 13th and 16th.  Then, a couple more storms on the 16th, 18th, and 20th before zonal flow takes over.  This correlates to Central Missouri in systems on the 15th, 17th, and 18th before we see ridging develop between the 20th and 23rd.  The next storms will be warm storms on the 23rd, 25th, and 27th with quick shots of cold following before a gradual warming follows due to zonal flow.

The Bering Sea has multiple storms stay South of the Aleutian Islands. This correlates to cooler weather in the Deep South with warmth above the Mason-Dixon line.  Look for warmer conditions in the Bering Sea stretching from today until the 20th of January.  A storm of the Southeast Aluetians will bring cold air back into the region afterwards.  Look for a warmer than normal correlation to Central Missouri between January 28th and February 9th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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