Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View

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Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So!

Hello all!

The GFS has been showing a severe weather set up centering around the 20th of February.

Back on the 4th it showed it based on the 372hr…

Here are today’s suites starting at 12z run…

Here is what the #BSR showed back on 02FEB16!

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

Then, the system that the GFS is hinting at with severe weather on the 20th comes in based the first part of this post.

Apply this to the Recurring Rossby Wave Train and you get the Severe Weather Outbreak of 26DEC15-28DEC15…

Then again on 08JAN16…

I believe the 20th system is a bit too fast for the GFS to be sniffing out as it doesn’t match the severe weather on the 8th of January.

We will keep you updated as time moves along via SPC outlooks!

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Mid-February Storm Continued…

Hello everyone!

Part of my research partners focus is the Recurring Rossby Wave Train. In fact, the #RRWT recently scored better than 70% for 86-90 day forecast in the 5 day average within 6° for Chicago, IL!

Now, if we apply the 50 day cycle to our mid-February storm we get the late December period.  Here are the 6-10 day cpc precipitation outlooks.

Compare that to the updated below…

Here are the prior 8-14 day…

Here are the current 8-14 day…

Below are the results from December as a whole for Columbia, MO…

I highlighted the period in question.  Note the 2.20″, 1.14″, and 1.15″ rainfall totals.  We experienced some backside snow, but since the moisture had already moved East, nothing but a trace was recorded.

Once again, the potential for a significant storm is there for mid-February.

Here is Josh’s #rrwt forecast maps for the period as they pertain to Surface Low Pressure…

The precipitable water anomalies also…

Note the “back-end” style of greens stretching from OKC northeast towards St. Louis and continuing into lower Indiana.  This is trademark snowfall look as seen in the example below…

The radar image above is a particular time stamp, so even though the graphics above it show a 5 day range, it has the same “pattern look” to it.

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Mid-February Storm

Hello everyone!

Once again, the BSR is giving people a heads up on the pattern at hand.  I know that there are #socialmeteorologist who are claiming they called this next big storm.

Here is what the BSR showed us in late January starting on the 29th.

160204011300.jpg160205011300.jpgIMagx0N.jpg

The models are starting to showing a significant storm becoming an I-70 special.  The control run of the CMC and GEFS are the dark circles.  The CMC goes from Northern Arkansas into West Central KY,

Here is the European Operational run from this afternoon.

The 18z GFS depiction is a tad farther North of the European.

I will NOT show snowfall maps as that makes people believe that the exact scenario will happen.  We are between 9 and 10 days out ladies and gentlemen.  Note how the first graphics show a 500mb ull moving almost due West to East and then apply that to the models showing a West to East movement!  The key to the BSR is how we…

Sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

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January BSR Reanalysis

Hello all,

It was brought up on the Accuweather forums via a member in Ohio that the BSR failed in January…

I’m not a big fan of using the BSR for predicting every day weather patterns. It did pretty bad in January. I much prefer using the TR for that, and leaving the BSR to predict big systems. 

If we were to use the BSR to forecast January, we would be using 2014 as an analog to say the least. It suggested that we’d see an eastern trough for 30 days straight.

Here are the 500mb maps for January…

As you can see, the 500mb shows that the below normal category stretched all the way into the lower peninsula of Michigan.

Look at the 850mb representation…

Once again you can see that lower anomalies covered all of the Eastern CONUS and even into Canada.

Yet…look at the 2mT’s

Here are the 850mb Temperature anomalies…

January_850mb_temp_anomaly

As I told the member on the forums…

One of the things that I was having to remind people is how “stale” the cold air was on numerous occasions.

He responded quickly…

It has been stale when it was here but it was because of the snow cover.  January was much warmer than what BSR would’ve suggested.

My final rebuttal before creating this blog.

The BSR didn’t suggest a cold January. It suggested below normal 500mb heights.

As you can see…the mid-levels did not agree with the surface temps.  On January 6th, I explained to a good friend of mine my thoughts on the pattern and how I kept seeing storms occluding quickly.

The data clearly shows that the BSR was correct in the depiction of what we expected in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and due to the timing of occlusion in an already stale environment, the lower levels just didn’t match.

Lastly, might I suggest that you look at my research partner’s data here where he archives all of his ESRL maps.

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Severe Weather Impacts Increasing

While most of the attention started turning towards what would become of #Jonas, the #BSR was showing something else in the wings.

The above graphic was from 12JAN16 in the Pacific.  Here you can see a very dynamic situation unfolding for the time period around 29JAN16 based on a lag time of 18 days. If our server hadn’t been maxed out, I’d be able to show you that the constant in the lag time is just that…it’s not constant.  Just like everything else in the atmosphere, the “eddy” moves fluidly and changes not only in a “regional” scale, but also in a CONUS scale.  Remember, the original premise of the BSR was that the correlation is between 17-21 days as a rule of thumb.

Here is the latest 6-8 day analog guidance provided by the CIPS, valid 03FEB16 00z.

Again, since our ability to host the maps is currently down, I cannot show you the progression of our maps. That being said, I’m certain that the corresponding graphics would look somewhat like this…

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Hello From AMS 2016

Hello everyone!

To say that this experience is something that I will never forget is an understatement!  My “stash” of business cards are already being depleted and I am expecting ~20 people to attend my presentation on Thursday at 2:30pm in room 245.  Those are just from face to face interactions to boot!

Off to Ocean Feedbacks and Atmospheric Precursor Signals Associated with Eastward-propagating and Eastward-deaying Tropical Intraseasonal Convection.

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CIPS Analogs Hitting On Deep South Severe Weather

So I grabbed the CIPS Analog set that utilizes the NAM as it pertains to severe weather.

Top 15 Analogs with at least 5 severe weather reports within 110km grid

 Top 15 Analogs with at least 10 severe weather reports within 110km grid

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When Modeling Agrees

Earlier today, Ian Livingston of Capital Weather Gang, tweets an ESRL map showing the European EPS 11-15 analogs and how they looked.

This is what the Bering Sea Rule showed on the 4th of January for the same time period.

That is the joy of #organicforecasting!

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More Support For Mid-Month Cold Snap

Another great resource that I use is from a good friend of mine, Al Marinaro, or @wxmidwest.

His models utilize the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast and comprise a set of analogs.

Here is what he has for the week 2 period.

Here is what the BSR showed on 31DEC15.

Just showing support to the Bering Sea Rule goes beyond what we claim.

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