Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (4063)

El Niño Update

Hello everyone!

 

So…here we are in the middle of November looking at the status of the ENSO.  I have been telling people here in Central Missouri since October 19th “officially” that it will be a “backloaded” winter.  One of those reasons is because of a slowly developing El Niño.  So…let’s look at the current state. Before that, here are the ENSO regions that we look at for such.

El_Nino_Regions

 

Below you see a combination of graphs of the temperature for each region of the ENSO.

20NOV14_Tropicaltidbits_SST

 

As you can see, the obs are fairly close to each other.

  • 1.02 = Region 1+2
  • 1.27 = Region 3
  • 1.07 = Region 3.4…ENSO identifier
  • 1.05 = Region 4

Looking closer at the 3.4 graph, we have been above +.5 since the beginning of the month.  With that in mind…lets dig deeper…

 

Here are the TAO numbers…

20NOV14_TAO

 

16NOV14_CPC_20c_Anomaly

 

As you can see above, warmer anomalies of the 20° C isotherm traverse across the equatorial Pacific from West to East in association with a Oceanic Kelvin Wave.  Take note how the above normal anomalies have hit a brick wall past 90°W after mid-September.

 

Now look at the animation below…

wkxzteq_anm

 

Cooler than normal sub-surface anomalies have hampered the progression of the above normal trend past 100°W as it is attacked from below. Just how far East the current Kelvin Wave makes it will be determined by that pool of cooler waters at 100°W.  Region 3 is a shoe in regardless and the impending result is a warmer signal.

 

That being said…look for a transition to colder than normal temperatures roughly mid-late December as the surface anomalies increase and move Westward…which, per my last El Niño post, shows colder anomalies.

 

Also…on the hype about the Super El Niño that was forecasted back in March and April…found an interesting tidbit, page 16,  in that the TAO buoys data availability was at a mere 28% in March.  The common theme of “garbage in-garbage out” applies here as it’s obvious that missing that much data screwed up the ingestion of information into said models that were predicting a Super El Niño!

 

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No Sugar Coating Here…I WAS WRONG!

When it comes to the weather community you will find multiple sources attempt to “finagle” their way around admitting they are wrong with a forecast.  We can blame the models all we want..but it comes down to how you, the forecaster, interprets said models.

 

10OCT14 Long Range Forecast

The GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

19OCT14 Long Range Forecast Bering Sea Section…

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27thFor Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

 

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section…

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

 

I have to give props to Larry Cosgrove because he did not believe the models, per his October 25th Long Range Forecast newsletter, on their depiction of a warm month.

It wasn’t until the beginning of November when Typhoon Nuri’s track and strength were correctly forecast that the meteorological community, as a whole, was having a wake up moment. You see, once Nuri was correctly being forecast, it was a three pronged attack of cold.

 

Typhoon Nuri went through two recurves. The first was roughly the 2nd of November and the second was on the 5th.  That translated to a cold front passage on the 9th/10th and 11th/12th.  Due to Nuri off to the races per the forecast distance of the 5th and 6th, it’s evident that the trough was stronger and cold air was going to respond.  Then, the real time influences took place.  Once Post-Tropical Nuri bombed in the Bering Sea, a ridge was created stretching from the Aleutian Island chain into the interior of Alaska.  That allowed the floodgates to open and force cold air that was being built up in the Arctic to come spilling down through Canada, and eventually, into Central Missouri.

 

Below you will see the teleconnection forecast from 29OCT14.

ESRL_4_Panel_29OCT14

As you can see, we have a neutral PNA, positive NAO, WPO, and EPO from November 6th-12th.  That is clearly a warm signal as I’ve shown in the past.  I will leave this post on a note of not coming down on myself too hard…It’s research and there are bound to be bust and accomplishments.  The end result is all that matters in my attempt to have a better system to incorporate into the model packages so that we don’t have a situation like this again.

 

“Progress before perfection!”

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What’s All The Commotion About With Typhoon Nuri?

Hey there everyone,

 

For those who have seen, or heard, my long range forecast that I put out there on Monday, the weakening Typhoon Nuri has been creating quite a buzz in the weather world as of late.  Why might you ask?  After moving past Japan, it will merge with a few other low pressure systems that are over the Sea of Okhotsk to create a meteorological bomb in the Southwest Bering Sea.

Bomb: Popular expression of a rapid intensification of a cyclone (low pressure) with surface pressure expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hour.

As it stands right now, the leading arms of NOAA are forecast this storm to be a 924mb monster once it arrives in the SW Bering Sea and will drop 54mb in 24 hours!

05NOV14_OPC_48hr

 

For comparison purposes, a 924mb storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season would equal a CAT4 in pressure and CAT2 in winds when utilizing the Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

Since this is an awesome case study for both the Typhoon and Bering Sea Rules, I performed some quick digging on impressive storms in the Bering Sea.  From the WUnderground blog I came up with these dates…

April 6, 2011

April_7_2011_bsr

The correlation…

27APR11_temp_anomalies

All I can say is…thank goodness this isn’t in the spring for what happened during the four days of 25th-28th.

110425_rpts

110426_rpts

110427_rpts

Let’s throw in October 25th, 1977 with 925mb

oct1977zoom

 

November 12-13, 1977 temperature anomalies

13NOV77_anomalies

 

So…I am looking at a substantial warm up just prior to the Thanksgiving Holiday per the latest long range discussion with a good chance of severe weather and cold to follow.

 

In the Typhoon Rule scheme of things, we are looking at temperatures averaging between 15° and 20° below normal.  That would place us fighting to break 40° on Veterans Day!

Veterans_Day_DAY6_MAX_ANOM_wbg

 

November 12th

Nov_12_DAY7_MAX_ANOM_wbg (345)

03NOV14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Nuri is going to create quite a stir both in the Typhoon and Bering Sea Rules.  It will miss the initial trough on the 4th, but be picked up on the 6th.  This means we will see a cold front both on the 11th and 13th with warming between.  After then, systems move through on the 8th, 12th, and 15th with Central Missouri impacts on the 15th, 19th, and 22nd.  I still believe we will see warm ups between, but they will be gradual this time around.

The Bering Sea is in for the roughest ride since 1977 with the remnants of Nuri bombing out, a 24mb drop in 24 hours, in the short term.  We have a system on the 4th with ridging right before Nuri comes to play on the 7th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front come through on the 24th and a impressive warm up until the 27th.  Look for the trough to stay put until at least the 12th in the Bering Sea, which means it will be a cold Thanksgiving for the Central United States as a whole!

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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The ‘Tonight Show’ For Weathergeeks!

Yes…I am tentatively scheduled for a December 1st  interview on WeatherBrains as a “Guest Panelist”.

Weatherbrains

 

For those who don’t know what the WeatherBrains show is…it is the “who’s who” of weather talking about what they love…the weather!

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

This is a great opportunity for me to advocate the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to get out to the masses and throw in a little bit of Rossby Wave action for good measure! (266)

North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Word of Caution…Part 3

Starting on September 28th, I let everyone know that they needed to be careful in various winter forecast that focus on the above normal anomalies in the Northeast Pacific and how it will dictate this winter much like they did last year.

Here were the SST anomalies back on September 25th.

09252014_SST

 

Here is the latest data…

27OCT14_SST

 

Just in case you can’t see the “depth” of the color hues, this graphic will help you much more…

22OCT14_SST_Monthly_Change

 

One can make the argument on how the SST’s in the NE Pacific are “technically” still above normal.  However, the trend is undeniable and spot on to why I urged caution!  This will have a significant impact on the upper air pattern at 500mb or 18289ft.  Instead of  a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska like we had last year, we will start to see a trough.  Let me be clear in stating that in no way am I saying it will be a warmer than normal winter!  Far from the truth as we are seeing multiple signals that are showing a volatile pattern shaping up with extremes on one end and the other.

 

Basically…I guess what I am attempting to say is that those who banked this winter on the above normal temperatures early on are going to be wrong if the trend continues. (518)

November Thoughts On Track

As more data comes in, it becomes aparent that the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules are tried and true.

 

10OCT14 Long Range Discussion

One or two days below normal temperatures until the 17th of October, or late in the first week of November for us, as a trough breaks down the original ridge and then another ridge comes in it’s heals until the 20thThe GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Bering Sea Section

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27th.  For Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

Typhoon Rule Section

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22ndwe have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

24OCT14 Long Range Discussion…

The Bering Sea will continue the progressive pattern that was advertised last week.  A system moves through it’s forecast area between the 25th and 27th of October.  Heights immediately respond with warmth building between another storm at the end of the month and beginning of November. Just like the prior though, ridging comes in like a lion and warms us up.  The timeline of events for Central Missouri in response is as such.  There will be storms during November 14th and 16th, then warming from November 16th through the 18th with a shortwave between November 19th and 21st and another ridge after November 22nd.

Look for the reds to continue to be shown on the North American Ensemble Forecast System, NAEFS, as time moves along.

NAEFS_28OCT14

 

Key point is the NAEFS model does not show the actual anomalies, but the chances of either above/near/below normal temperatures.  So…we have an 80%-90% chance of above normal temperatures from November 5th-November 12th.

The CFS v2 shows the cool period to start out in week one, then a gradual warming period in week two per the “normal temperature” anomalies.

27OCT14_CFS_Week1&2

Look out for week 3 and 4 though!

27OCT14_CFS_Week3&4

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Halloween Time Period

Hey there everyone!  As if you couldn’t guess…Sunday, Sunday, Sunday is the easiest day for me to catch up on all things weather since it’s the only day off from my actual day job.

 

02OCT14 Long Range Discussion Bering Sea Section…

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th.  However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st.

 

Yes…the timing was a tad off with the cold front coming through with the forecast on 02OCT14.  The heat lasted two days longer than I envisioned.

 

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section…

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

26OCT14_4day

Towards the end of the period, there is a system that stalls in the plains and won’t come through until roughly the 5th of November.

26OCT14_7day

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Warm Up? Who Knew?

What a beautiful couple of days we’ve had in Central Missouri with yet today and tomorrow to continue the trend!  I will admit that I did not go into very good detail regarding this post below.  The fault is simple…I was assuming that mostly all of those who read my post would understand what I was saying.

 

18SEP14 Long Range Discussion

 

This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over. Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

First…our normals for October…

October_Normals

 

The latest weather story from St. Louis National Weather Service office…

LSX_Weather_Story

Yes…I know it’s for their forecast area as a whole…but the premise holds true.  We are looking at high temperatures to be almost 20° above normal!

26SEP14_Forecast (278)