Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule Explanations…

Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses.  Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first “heads up” in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com.  Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that.  Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn’t come true.

Forecast thread

OBS thread

Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

Accuweather.com forum post

…and the wiki on both storms…

Accuweather.com forum post

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows.  That is where JB got himself into trouble.  He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general.  One of my favorite “JDism’s” on the forum is “It’s all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it’s all about!” or “We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!”

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this…not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I’ve taught them.

OSNW3 Blogspot

SCMWeather

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.  The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques…

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast

Ocean Prediction Center
Pacific Tab

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: Weather Online Expert Charts
Euro: Weather Online Expert Charts

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View (4128)

13DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has our 15th system move through the Sea of Japan before transferring to the East coast of Japan.  This is our pre-christmas storm which will provide us with a white Christmas.  A ensuing cold period follows until a spike in temperatures before the 20th system.  This translates to Central Missouri experiencing a gradual warm up between Christmas and December 28th when a significant jump in temperatures takes place.  The model spread is too great to go beyond the 28th utilizing the Typhoon Rule.

The Bering Sea shows a strong storm developing on the 15th.  We then see a gradual warming trend until a spike in temperatures prior to an even stronger storm on the 18th of December.  This translates to a strong storm around January 7th here.  My personal thoughts are that this will provide areas of the North Central Plains with a significant snowstorm and well above normal temperatures for Central Missouri prior to it. Northwest flow follows with cold air until the 10th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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05DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule still has the trough over East Asia for the next couple of days. A new shortwave will travel through there on the 8th of December with a quick recovery on the 9th and 10th before another system comes through on the 12th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front move through on the 16th and 20th of December with warming between.  The storms that have my attention are on the 15th and 17th in East Asia for those will give us a chance of a white Christmas.

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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Early December Storm

While performing my duties on the Accuweather.com forums, I was looking through the December 7-10th Plains/MW/OV/GL thread and it dawned on me. This was during my lull of action and I needed to check and see how it correlated to the BSR.

 

Here is the correlation map that we have been utilizing to “fine tune” where we believe the BSR matches up with the CONUS.

bsrx1

The red star is Columbia and the orange star is SE CT.  Below is the 48hr surface map archived from the 15th of November.

07DEC14_Storm

Note the positioning of the two low pressure systems along the Aleutian Island chain.  The main system is at 978mb and strengthening with a another 993mb along the front to it’s SE moving NNE.

Now look at the Day 6 map from the Weather Prediction Center, WPC.  Knowing that 20 days forward from the 17th of November is the 7th of December.

 

06DEC14_DAY6

 

Followed by Day 7

07DEC14_DAY7 (308)

October Verification

Yes…I know that November is basically over before I performed some verification of how I did in October.  Nature of the beast I say!

Here are the statistics from the Columbia Regional Airport, or COU.

OCT_COU

 

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

The beginning of October started 10° above normal on the first and by the 4th we were 13° below normal with the passage of a double cold front on the 3rd. Sandborn Field hit the high for October 3rd at 12:01am of 59.4° as the temperature just kept dropping like a rock to 46.8° at 1pm!

03OCT14

11SEP14 Long Range Discussion

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September.  Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe.  Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea.  This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

This, of course, is the initial view of the models in their long range period. Just like in the CONUS, they were having problems in bringing the ridging too quickly.

18SEP14 Long Range Discussion

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and won’t let go until the 23rdof September for the Bering Sea Rule.  We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th.  This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October.  This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over.  Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Here is the calendar which the research student produced after reading the long range forecasting of both they typhoon and bering sea rules…

18SEP2014_Long Range

As you can see, I flipped my forecast on the 9th-14th because the timing issue was resolved. It was still 3 weeks in advance of the upcoming pattern.

09OCT_14OCT

25SEP14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7thThis translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

I missed the mark on this one.

15OCT_31OCT

Following up though…it was skewed by October 25th through the 27th as we averaged 8° above normal for those three days!

25OCT_27OCT

 

Overall…I give myself a B- due to the call of a cooler than normal last two weeks.

 

 

EDIT: In my haste to produce this verification, I forgot to include the 02OCT14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th.  However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st. Central Missouri will begin November on a cold note.  A quick ridge develops on the 14th due to a system in the Sea of Okhotsk and then it throws multiple systems after the 15th.  So…looking at the first week of November being below normal.

Here are the updated maps…

15OCT14-22OCT14

15OCT_22OCT

You can clearly see the warming trend to our West right before it got here between the 23rd and 25th.

23OCT_25OCT

 

Due to the 26th and 27th being 17° above normal on both days, the last graphic is skewed.  My friends at work were very thankful that I was telling them at the beginning of the month how they needed to bundle up their kids for Halloween!

26OCT_31OCT (243)

28NOV14 Long Range Discussion Follow Up

So…after I went to have some Thai food at Chim’s here in Downtown Columbia, I decided to look at the long range modeling to see if we were in agreement on the long range forecast.

Here is the NAEFS as it was showing the warmth back on the 24th of November.

24NOV14_NAEFS

 

As you can see, it’s for the period of December 2nd through December 9th.  As I stated in the ‘A Warming Trend On The Way’ post

As I’ve discussed before, these are the probabilities of being above normal for the period.  So…we have a 60%-70% chance of above normal temperatures between December 2nd and December 9th.

Earlier today, I discussed how the progression of systems would happen in the later period of the above graphic…

All models converge on a system in the beginning of December through December 7th over East Asia with Mid Missouri effects are a cold front on the 8th with two more on the 10thand 12th.

It’s related graphic…

26NOV14_NAEFS

Going from above normal probabilities to average in our region of the country and below normal to our SE tells me there are a series of cold fronts that break down the above normal temperatures to moderate for us.

 

Note the trend though…

Then, zonal flow will follow with warming on the 14th until another cold front on the 16th.

Look to our West…yes, those are above normal percentages moving back towards Mid-Missouri.

28NOV14_NAEFS

 

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28NOV14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

All models converge on a system in the beginning of December through December 7th over East Asia with Mid Missouri effects are a cold front on the 8th with two more on the 10th and 12th. Then, zonal flow will follow with warming on the 14th until another cold front on the 16th.  The same upper level low will pump up a ridge in the Southwest Bering Sea at the beginning of December as highlighted below.

A quick moving system enters the Bering Sea on December 1st with warming immediately through the 4th.  Then an upper level low rotates from the Northeast and stays in the region until December 6th at least.  This means the chance of a white Christmas is there and colder than normal temperatures continue until the end of the month.  Also…keeping in mind there is a sudden stratospheric warming event in process over Siberia and could lead to even colder temperatures than progged right now.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

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A Warming Trend On The Way

In my lapse of postings due to my personal life just going bonkers, I have not been able to provide the KOPN faithful listeners and blog readers what was going to happen in the first week of December. I sincerely apologize!

 

With out further delay…

 

Here is the latest NAEFS 8-15 day outlook.

24NOV14_NAEFS

 

As I’ve discussed before, these are the probabilities of being above normal for the period.  So…we have a 60%-70% chance of above normal temperatures between December 2nd and December 9th.

 

Here are the teleconnection forecast as provided by the Earth Systems Research Library…please excuse the bad artwork. ;)

24NOV14_ESRL_4PANEL

 

Whenever we see above normal index values of the WPO, EPO, and NAO…that is a sure sign of an above normal period on the way.

 

Let’s see what the BSR was showing 13th of November, which correlates to the 3rd of December.

14NOV14_500mb_Pac

Beautiful SW flow coming into the Bering Sea as an upper level low spins to the East of Sakhalin Island pumping up a ridge over Shemya Island, or 52.71°N 174.13°E. Shemya correlates to Springfield, MO by the way!

 

However, all good things must come to an end.

16NOV14_500mb_PAC (341)

El Niño Update

Hello everyone!

 

So…here we are in the middle of November looking at the status of the ENSO.  I have been telling people here in Central Missouri since October 19th “officially” that it will be a “backloaded” winter.  One of those reasons is because of a slowly developing El Niño.  So…let’s look at the current state. Before that, here are the ENSO regions that we look at for such.

El_Nino_Regions

 

Below you see a combination of graphs of the temperature for each region of the ENSO.

20NOV14_Tropicaltidbits_SST

 

As you can see, the obs are fairly close to each other.

  • 1.02 = Region 1+2
  • 1.27 = Region 3
  • 1.07 = Region 3.4…ENSO identifier
  • 1.05 = Region 4

Looking closer at the 3.4 graph, we have been above +.5 since the beginning of the month.  With that in mind…lets dig deeper…

 

Here are the TAO numbers…

20NOV14_TAO

 

16NOV14_CPC_20c_Anomaly

 

As you can see above, warmer anomalies of the 20° C isotherm traverse across the equatorial Pacific from West to East in association with a Oceanic Kelvin Wave.  Take note how the above normal anomalies have hit a brick wall past 90°W after mid-September.

 

Now look at the animation below…

wkxzteq_anm

 

Cooler than normal sub-surface anomalies have hampered the progression of the above normal trend past 100°W as it is attacked from below. Just how far East the current Kelvin Wave makes it will be determined by that pool of cooler waters at 100°W.  Region 3 is a shoe in regardless and the impending result is a warmer signal.

 

That being said…look for a transition to colder than normal temperatures roughly mid-late December as the surface anomalies increase and move Westward…which, per my last El Niño post, shows colder anomalies.

 

Also…on the hype about the Super El Niño that was forecasted back in March and April…found an interesting tidbit, page 16,  in that the TAO buoys data availability was at a mere 28% in March.  The common theme of “garbage in-garbage out” applies here as it’s obvious that missing that much data screwed up the ingestion of information into said models that were predicting a Super El Niño!

 

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