All posts by Joseph Renken

February Verification

Hello everyone! I know, I know…”Joe, you are quite a bit late on the February verification post!” There were so many different routes that I couldn’t decide to take on this that it left me confounded.

One thing that I’d like to touch base on was the 3 day ROC scores for the Northeast during February. Astonishingly good would be the best way of describing it!

 As you can see above, not only did the 3 day ROC of the BSR nail the pattern overall during February, but it literally had a 1:1 correlation on multiple days!

The 7 day pattern correlation of the ROC shows the high correlation even better with score verification.

The first 5 days of the month showed this as it pertained to the BSR 500mb map.

 As you can see above, the Western ridge/Eastern trough was foretold. The trough was focused over Quebec, extending into most of the Eastern US, and the ridge was focused over the Intermountain West.

The above graphic from the ESRL daily composite site, with a focused point of the US, shows the ridge verified SE of the BSR while the trough apex was split between Newfoundland and James Bay. The ridge extending to the SE coast nullified the minimal BSR below normal look South of the Mason-Dixon line.

The next event I will bring up is the February 7th, 2017 severe weather that hit the Gulf Coast. The idea which the BSR started to paint was one which had a system develop over the lee of the Rockies and move East affecting the gulf region.

The first “official” hint on the organicforecasting.com BSR section was January 16th, 2017 with the 96hr OPC forecast overlay.

 While these overlays were produced on January 21st, 2017 based on 500mb analysis.

Almost immediately afterwards, we saw the potential for a strong storm to hit the Northeast via the next system based on the 96hr OPC forecast overlays starting on the 18th of January, 2017.

These maps are based on 500mb analysis once again.

Compare the maps for February 10th to what the Weather Prediction Center had for Days 5 & 7 forecast of February 9th on the left side of the next two pictures!

 Day 7 Forecast vs Verification

Day 5 Forecast vs Verification

On the Accuweather.com forums we have “adopted” a naming strategy to storms which the BSR nails…”Dark Knight Blizzard” as my nickname is the “Dark Knight” dating back to the January 20th, 2016 storm. This is the forecast thread, while here is the OBS thread for the DKBIII storm.

I will reference something that was brought up in the weatherboy.com article dated February 12th, 2017.

This is a warm pattern upcoming for much of the U.S., especially east of the Rockies. In the 10 day period ending around the 22nd of this month, many areas of the country will be 10 degrees above normal with some as high as 20 degrees above normal. Though New England will be the slowest to warm, after the current blizzard departs, temperatures will soar even there to well above normal readings about a week from now. While they warm slowly in New England, temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and South will be well above normal for much of this upcoming week.

“A strong area of high pressure over the North Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska retrograded, meaning it headed west, instead of the normal east that most weather systems take (in late January) and this teleconnected to a ridge of high pressure off the Southeast coast heading west and dominating the eastern US,” explains Renken.  This type of weather pattern encourages a strong west to east flow across the Lower Forty Eight  and will combine with the much stronger than normal Pacific jetstream to allow warmth to dominate.

Below you can see the Des Moines, IA data for the period of February 1st-22nd. I placed the 10 day period from the 12th-22nd in red squares.

Even though I didn’t see the departures get larger than 20° above normal, the pattern was foreseen and warned about. I suspect that the raging Pacific jet that I spoke about added extra moxie to the pattern.

While the pattern indicates a warm stretch of weather, a change is also likely around the 20th of the month. “This very well could be another severe weather outbreak with the Southeast with the Gulf Coast states being the area seeing the greatest threat for severe weather,” Mr. Renken stressed.

Even though the outbreak didn’t come true due to mesoscale features not lining up, the potential was there and foretold.

Here are the reports from the 19th.

The SPC outlooks for the remaining days.

BSR map created on February 3rd, 2017. Note the ULL over West Texas, the corresponding ridge over the Deep South, another ULL off the SE coast and the Mid-Atl.

The West Texas ULL hasn’t closed off yet in the OBS, but the ridge is created ahead, ULL between Bermuda and the Bahama’s, and the last ULL over Nova Scotia.

A look at the BSR ESRL generated map for the 18th-22nd.

This is the corresponding OBS at 500mb.

This storm will be followed by a change to more normal temperatures.  Mr. Renken explained, “The stronger than normal jetstream slamming into California has been the overwhelming meteorological factor in our mild winter so far. And there is no sign of this factor going away. Plus Canada has been running way above normal temperature-wise. Combining these and other factors, I don’t think a pattern of sustained cold in the East will exist.”  After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

The BSR had this for the last 4 days of February.

Here are the last 4 days of February…

 Boston, MA data showing the cold was “muted” as predicted. That being said, going from 25° above normal to 7° above normal is a nice cold front that I’m sure those in the region were happy to see.

These are the 3 day ROC charts for the Mountain and Central regions.

The Mountain 3 day ROC had the pattern, but not the magnitude during the same period.

While the Central 3 day ROC was off by 3 days in the recovery.

So, overall, I’d say that the BSR did quite well during the month of February!

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Severe Weather Calls

Hello everyone!

In the last article, March 18th, for weatherboy, I was quoted for a few dates of severe weather to ramp up.

According to the BSR, the days with the greatest chance of severe weather would be around the 23rd and 24th of March, the 2nd through 4th of April, and then again later in April, around the 10th through 12th.

Here are the archived BSR maps provided on the organicforecasting.com.

 March 23rd, 2017

 Forecast on March 6th, 2017

March 24th, 2017

Forecast on March 7th, 2017

April 2nd, 2017

Forecast on March 16th, 2017

April 3rd, 2017

Forecast on March 17th, 2017

April 4th, 2017

Forecast on March 18th, 2017

April 5th, 2017

Forecast on March 18th, 2017

April 6th, 2017

Forecast on March 19th, 2017

April 10th, 2017

Forecast on March 24th, 2017

April 11th, 2017

Forecast on March 25th, 2017

 

Let’s take a look at those dates via the Storm Prediction Center’s report page. These will all be filtered reports to take out those which were duplicates.

March 23rd, 2017

March 24th, 2017

April 2nd, 2017

April 3rd, 2017

April 4th, 2017

April 5th, 2017

April 6th, 2017

April 10th, 2017 Day 1 Outlook

April 10th, 2017 Day 2 Outlook for 4/11-4/12

 

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What Happened With The BSR?!

Hello everyone! I’ve decided to follow up on an article that I was interviewed for with The Weatherboy.

First, let’s look at the outlooks from an earlier interview on February 12th

After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

Here are the stats for Bangor, ME in February and the first part of March. Bangor, ME is our correlation point with Kodiak Island, AK.

As you can see, the volatile pattern is there.  The cold snaps of late February didn’t materialize because of the Pacific jet coming back to life per this graphic. So my comment of them being “muted” was spot on for the later part of February.

The low pressure well of the West Coast acts as a catalyst to increase the speed of the jet once it turns zonal over the CONUS.

Another method that we utilize in the BSR is our 3 Day ROC, or Rate of Change. The orange line designates our correlation on Kodiak Island, while the green designation is Bangor, ME.

Note how the 3 day ROC basically nailed the pattern from 2/12/17-3/10/17. This can be confirmed by looking at our 3 day ROC pR option below.

The above graphics were brought up in the Weatherboy article

We keep a detailed record of what the BSR’s repeating pattern, its so-called ‘lag’, is every day.

One thing I’d like to bring up is how the BSR did show a storm in the MidAtl and Northeast on March 13th as seen below.

A dissipating low pressure just South of Cape Hatteras, NC with two shortwaves to it’s West.  One stretching in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the other from the Ohio Valley to Cuba.  It’s obvious that these two shortwaves ‘phased’ and gave us…

Finally…there is a forecast method that is utilized by multiple NWS offices which uses Hovmoller graphics. This “in-house” method stated that the severe weather threat for the Plains and Upper Midwest actually merged with a long range “frequency”, or “signal”, to create the above storm off the Northeast coast.

Finally, be careful of anyone on “wxtwitter” or various Facebook groups that claimed they foretold a big storm coming well in advance of 20 days! Them saying that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast stood a chance for snow is a huge difference than calling for what was on the table!

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Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Looks Familiar

Hey everyone!

Here is the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook issued last night for the period of March 4th-10th.

Here is what the BSR was showing on February 20th.

That being said, the BSR ESRL maps have a lag of developed and we can see the pattern 6 days earlier as the surface and 500mb maps are produced.

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The BSR’s Use Across The Lower 48

One of the meteorologist who utilizes the #BSR is Jeremy Nelson, formally of WISN in Milwaukee and now at WJCL in Savannah, GA.

Recently, Jeremy posted a blog regarding the daily record amount of rain that Savannah received…1.88″ to be exact.

Here is what the #BSR was showing…

Note the multiple low pressure systems along the Gulf Coast and a strengthening low in the Trinidad, CO region.

Here is the observed surface map for 12z 21FEB17..

and the 500mb map for the same date/time…

The OBS surface map above has multiple low pressure’s along the Gulf Coast that are occluded.

First mention of the end of February was back on January 29th.

Jeremy followed up regarding the end of the month for a strong system to impact the SE on January 9th.

A few tweets about a warmup around the 11th and 12th of March…

and another warm up immediately following a chance of rain…

We are looking forward to his verification and #bsr intro blog post for those in Savannah, GA!

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Friend’s Bering Sea Rule Forecast

Back on February 1st, I had a good friend of mine request a forecast for the period of February 19th and 20th in St. Louis.

At the time, I was working a ton of overtime and couldn’t get back to her right away.  However, on February 3rd I responded.

Here are the BSR depictions on February 2nd for the 19th and 20th.

This is the 00z 20FEB17 500mb OBS map…

Note the troughs over the NW and NE with a ridge between.

Note the Southerly to Southeasterly flow at 500mb.

The high temperature for St. Louis on February 19th was 72°.

While this is the forecast for February 20th.

 

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Severe Weather Signals

Hello all,

We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on.  Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.

What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather.  Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.

The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.

Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.

Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.

Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…

 

 

 

 

Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.

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An Early Look Into February Verification

Hey everyone,

While looking at the long range thread of Accuweather.com’s forums, it moved me to look up a few things.

The BSR depiction of February 5th-9th at the 500mb level.

Here is what the European model was showing for 7am today back on January 26th.

 This is what the late night run of the GFS showed last night for the same time period.

 

The GEFS 5 day from February 5th-10th has this.

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January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

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CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

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