Category Archives: Uncategorized

Finally Back Up!

Hello everyone! I figured out that the new WordPress update messed up the website and, as such, I had to remove all of the plugin’s and individually turn them back on. Sorry about the mix up!

In the meantime, I’ve been working on the SOI research, Forecast Rodeo contribution of adding a method that a great researcher had taught me, and regular everyday life working for the VA Hospital in Columbia while taking care of my daughter.

Joe

The Bering Sea Rule Is Gaining Attention

Hello everyone!

First, and foremost, I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize for not updating the blog as much as I need to.  My full-time job at the Veterans Affairs Hospital has me working 20 hours of overtime a week so that cuts down on my ability to look over things.

In 2013, I got in contact with Accuweather’s long range forecasting team and established some good friendships within the company outside of that said team.  One friend that I still speak with on a regular basis is Mark. Mark is no longer at Accuweather, but writes articles for Weatherboy.com.  For the past 1.5 months, I have contributed my thoughts to his articles located below.

December 21st, 2016

Looking Beyond a Two Week Forecast

January 3rd, 2017
January 9th, 2017
January 19th, 2017
We were discussing on FB Messenger that a new article will be created in a week for multiple severe weather signals that we are seeing via the Bering Sea Rule, Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Also, take a gander at searching on Twitter for people utilizing the #bsr to forecast between 17-21 days in advance! Those out east are starting to catch on, especially when it comes to the threat for the period between February 8th-10th! The only bad part is you have to weed through the other hits for #bsr.

SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh’s January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.

Look at what the BSR is showing…

One might look at the above maps and think…how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such…The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further…the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS

Euro

On a side note…here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th…

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support…

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini’s research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

Weather Ready Ambassadors

Hello everyone!

 

KOPN 89.5 FM has been granted the Weather Ready Ambassador designation.  What is this?

 

The Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™ initiative is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) effort to formally recognize NOAA partners who are improving the nation’s readiness, responsiveness, and overall resilience against extreme weather, water, and climate events. As a WRN Ambassador, partners commit to working with NOAA and other Ambassadors to strengthen national resilience against extreme weather. In effect, the WRN Ambassador initiative helps unify the efforts across government, non-profits, academia, and private industry toward making the nation more ready, responsive, and resilient against extreme environmental hazards.Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is a strategic outcome where society’s response should be equal to the risk from all extreme weather, water, and climate hazards.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is a:

  • Unifying effort;
  • Action-oriented;
  • Inclusive; and
  • Force multiplier (i.e., new partnerships lead to even more partnership opportunities).

WRN Ambassadors serve a pivotal role in affecting societal change — helping to build a nation that is ready, responsive, and resilient to the impacts of extreme weather and water events.
To be officially recognized as a WRN Ambassador, an organization must commit to:

  • Promoting Weather-Ready Nation messages and themes to their stakeholders;
  • Engaging with NOAA personnel on potential collaboration opportunities;
  • Sharing their success stories of preparedness and resiliency;
  • Serving as an example by educating employees on workplace preparedness

As a WRN Ambassador, you will serve as a change agent and leader in your community. You will inspire others to be better informed and prepared, helping to minimize or even avoid the impacts of these natural disasters.
To support your efforts, NOAA can:

  • Provide outreach content about creating a Weather-Ready Nation;
  • Explore innovative approaches for collaboration with your organization;
  • Assist with StormReady®/TsunamiReady™ opportunities for communities;
  • Recognize your organization as a WRN Ambassador; and
  • Share the WRN Ambassador logo for your use.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation requires more than government alone. It requires the entire Weather Enterprise to provide information for better community, business, and personal decision making, and innovative partnerships across all segments of society. We must involve everyone in an effort to move people – and society – toward heeding warnings, taking action, and influencing their circles of family, friends, and social network to act appropriately.

The WRN Ambassador initiative is the connecting hub of a vast network of federal, state, and local government agencies; emergency managers and city planners; researchers, the media; the insurance industry; nonprofit organizations; the private sector; and many others who are working together to address the impacts of extreme weather on daily life.

Together we will inform and empower communities, businesses, and people to make pre-event decisions that can be life-saving and prevent or limit devastating economic losses. We are a nation of many communities, and it is only through connected communities that we will achieve this goal.

 

WRN_Ambassador_logo

White Christmas Nailbitter

Man alive…talk about cutting it close!

 

28NOV14 Long Range Discussion

A quick moving system enters the Bering Sea on December 1st with warming immediately through the 4thThen an upper level low rotates from the Northeast and stays in the region until December 6th at least.  This means the chance of a white Christmas is there and colder than normal temperatures continue until the end of the month.

Xmas_Snow

 

The WPC Winter Weather website provides a great resource to us weather geeks on the chances of snow and ice.  As you can see, Central Missouri (and a small swath in North Central Illinois) has a 40-50% probability of snowfall exceeding the depicted amount (≥1in) in the enclosed area.

 

Below you will find out how they determine said forecast…

21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
25 ECMWF ensemble members, randomly selected

1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest operational run
1 Canadian Model (CMC) latest operational run
1 ECMWF latest ensemble mean
1 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) latest ensemble mean (6-h SLRs)
5 NCEP GEFS members, randomly selected
___

 

57 Total members
I will be traveling back home to Central Illinois between the 24th and 28th.
Merry Christmas and a happy new year!

05DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule still has the trough over East Asia for the next couple of days. A new shortwave will travel through there on the 8th of December with a quick recovery on the 9th and 10th before another system comes through on the 12th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front move through on the 16th and 20th of December with warming between.  The storms that have my attention are on the 15th and 17th in East Asia for those will give us a chance of a white Christmas.

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

What’s All The Commotion About With Typhoon Nuri?

Hey there everyone,

 

For those who have seen, or heard, my long range forecast that I put out there on Monday, the weakening Typhoon Nuri has been creating quite a buzz in the weather world as of late.  Why might you ask?  After moving past Japan, it will merge with a few other low pressure systems that are over the Sea of Okhotsk to create a meteorological bomb in the Southwest Bering Sea.

Bomb: Popular expression of a rapid intensification of a cyclone (low pressure) with surface pressure expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hour.

As it stands right now, the leading arms of NOAA are forecast this storm to be a 924mb monster once it arrives in the SW Bering Sea and will drop 54mb in 24 hours!

05NOV14_OPC_48hr

 

For comparison purposes, a 924mb storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season would equal a CAT4 in pressure and CAT2 in winds when utilizing the Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

Since this is an awesome case study for both the Typhoon and Bering Sea Rules, I performed some quick digging on impressive storms in the Bering Sea.  From the WUnderground blog I came up with these dates…

April 6, 2011

April_7_2011_bsr

The correlation…

27APR11_temp_anomalies

All I can say is…thank goodness this isn’t in the spring for what happened during the four days of 25th-28th.

110425_rpts

110426_rpts

110427_rpts

Let’s throw in October 25th, 1977 with 925mb

oct1977zoom

 

November 12-13, 1977 temperature anomalies

13NOV77_anomalies

 

So…I am looking at a substantial warm up just prior to the Thanksgiving Holiday per the latest long range discussion with a good chance of severe weather and cold to follow.

 

In the Typhoon Rule scheme of things, we are looking at temperatures averaging between 15° and 20° below normal.  That would place us fighting to break 40° on Veterans Day!

Veterans_Day_DAY6_MAX_ANOM_wbg

 

November 12th

Nov_12_DAY7_MAX_ANOM_wbg