Category Archives: Winter Storm

What Happened With The BSR?!

Hello everyone! I’ve decided to follow up on an article that I was interviewed for with The Weatherboy.

First, let’s look at the outlooks from an earlier interview on February 12th

After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

Here are the stats for Bangor, ME in February and the first part of March. Bangor, ME is our correlation point with Kodiak Island, AK.

As you can see, the volatile pattern is there.  The cold snaps of late February didn’t materialize because of the Pacific jet coming back to life per this graphic. So my comment of them being “muted” was spot on for the later part of February.

The low pressure well of the West Coast acts as a catalyst to increase the speed of the jet once it turns zonal over the CONUS.

Another method that we utilize in the BSR is our 3 Day ROC, or Rate of Change. The orange line designates our correlation on Kodiak Island, while the green designation is Bangor, ME.

Note how the 3 day ROC basically nailed the pattern from 2/12/17-3/10/17. This can be confirmed by looking at our 3 day ROC pR option below.

The above graphics were brought up in the Weatherboy article

We keep a detailed record of what the BSR’s repeating pattern, its so-called ‘lag’, is every day.

One thing I’d like to bring up is how the BSR did show a storm in the MidAtl and Northeast on March 13th as seen below.

A dissipating low pressure just South of Cape Hatteras, NC with two shortwaves to it’s West.  One stretching in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the other from the Ohio Valley to Cuba.  It’s obvious that these two shortwaves ‘phased’ and gave us…

Finally…there is a forecast method that is utilized by multiple NWS offices which uses Hovmoller graphics. This “in-house” method stated that the severe weather threat for the Plains and Upper Midwest actually merged with a long range “frequency”, or “signal”, to create the above storm off the Northeast coast.

Finally, be careful of anyone on “wxtwitter” or various Facebook groups that claimed they foretold a big storm coming well in advance of 20 days! Them saying that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast stood a chance for snow is a huge difference than calling for what was on the table!

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January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

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Mid-February Storm Continued…

Hello everyone!

Part of my research partners focus is the Recurring Rossby Wave Train. In fact, the #RRWT recently scored better than 70% for 86-90 day forecast in the 5 day average within 6° for Chicago, IL!

Now, if we apply the 50 day cycle to our mid-February storm we get the late December period.  Here are the 6-10 day cpc precipitation outlooks.

Compare that to the updated below…

Here are the prior 8-14 day…

Here are the current 8-14 day…

Below are the results from December as a whole for Columbia, MO…

I highlighted the period in question.  Note the 2.20″, 1.14″, and 1.15″ rainfall totals.  We experienced some backside snow, but since the moisture had already moved East, nothing but a trace was recorded.

Once again, the potential for a significant storm is there for mid-February.

Here is Josh’s #rrwt forecast maps for the period as they pertain to Surface Low Pressure…

The precipitable water anomalies also…

Note the “back-end” style of greens stretching from OKC northeast towards St. Louis and continuing into lower Indiana.  This is trademark snowfall look as seen in the example below…

The radar image above is a particular time stamp, so even though the graphics above it show a 5 day range, it has the same “pattern look” to it.

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Mid-February Storm

Hello everyone!

Once again, the BSR is giving people a heads up on the pattern at hand.  I know that there are #socialmeteorologist who are claiming they called this next big storm.

Here is what the BSR showed us in late January starting on the 29th.

160204011300.jpg160205011300.jpgIMagx0N.jpg

The models are starting to showing a significant storm becoming an I-70 special.  The control run of the CMC and GEFS are the dark circles.  The CMC goes from Northern Arkansas into West Central KY,

Here is the European Operational run from this afternoon.

The 18z GFS depiction is a tad farther North of the European.

I will NOT show snowfall maps as that makes people believe that the exact scenario will happen.  We are between 9 and 10 days out ladies and gentlemen.  Note how the first graphics show a 500mb ull moving almost due West to East and then apply that to the models showing a West to East movement!  The key to the BSR is how we…

Sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

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When Modeling Agrees

Earlier today, Ian Livingston of Capital Weather Gang, tweets an ESRL map showing the European EPS 11-15 analogs and how they looked.

This is what the Bering Sea Rule showed on the 4th of January for the same time period.

That is the joy of #organicforecasting!

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More Support For Mid-Month Cold Snap

Another great resource that I use is from a good friend of mine, Al Marinaro, or @wxmidwest.

His models utilize the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast and comprise a set of analogs.

Here is what he has for the week 2 period.

Here is what the BSR showed on 31DEC15.

Just showing support to the Bering Sea Rule goes beyond what we claim.

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A Very Active Organic Forecasting Period

Hello all,

I am sure that you are hearing the buzz regarding  a monster storm that is forecasted in the Bering Sea.

Let’s focus on the Bering Sea System first.

Here is the current warning for the Bering Sea…

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ413-121445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E
OF 176E. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT BUILDING TO 25 TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 TO 42 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

On Saturday night into Sunday they are expecting seas of 42ft with 50-65kt winds with a 928mb estimated pressure!  It’s seeing forecast like these that make me happy I chose the submarine force.  A little comparison regarding last year’s news-maker, Super Typhoon Nuri bottomed out at 924mb. Note the tracks of each…

Nuri retrogrades while in the Bering Sea which lead to the sustained cold we experienced in late November.

Here is the current track of our system this year…

The current lag time as to when we are looking at the BSR timeline is 19 days.  So, add 19 days to the 13th-15th and we get between January 1st and January 3rd of 2016.  My research partner, Josh Hermann, created an animated gif of the storm from a prior run with the ‘estimated track’ of the surface low pressure.

What you aren’t hearing about is Typhoon Melor, which is forecasted to hit the Philippines and then get shredded into a minor cyclone.  If a typhoon moves due west it shows that a ridge is over the top in East Asia and Japan.

Applying the typhoon rule and we see that we will expect warmth between the 19th and 22nd of December before a new series of systems move through the Central CONUS.

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Late November-Early December Storm Update

Hello everyone!

It’s been 10 days since my last post regarding the Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities.  Needless to say, it has become more interesting.  First, let me show that the very next day after my post here, I posted this on the Accuweather Forums.

Once again, I posted a blog before looking at everything in front of me as this is what I did immediately following my post here on the 12th.

Here is the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day analog set…

The explanation of what the dates on the lower right mean…

Do we remember what that storm for #1 analog is?  I do…My family just moved to the Northeast side of Columbia, MO in September of 2006.  Jeff Huffman was the morning meteorologist on KMIZ and was warning everyone just how significant this storm was going to be.  I measured 17″ of snow in my backyard and witnessed thundersnow on multiple occasions.

Let me be clear that in no way am I saying the the Central US will see results like this again almost to the day…

Here are  a few 12z 22NOV15 Model results…

GFS

European for November 30th

European for December 1st

Here are the corresponding “East Asia Rule” maps.  I don’t have the overlay, but our correlation point is Seoul, South Korea is roughly Clarksville, TN and Nashville is the east coast of South Korea.

GFS

European

Note just how close those are to the track of our low back in 2006?

Now…look at he surface from the BSR.

 

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Texas Weather Conference

Hello everyone!

I have just submitted our abstract to the Texas Weather Conference being held on February 5-6, 2016 at the University of Texas in Austin.

 

TXWX_Flier_Final-2

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