Category Archives: Severe Weather

Severe Weather Calls

Hello everyone!

In the last article, March 18th, for weatherboy, I was quoted for a few dates of severe weather to ramp up.

According to the BSR, the days with the greatest chance of severe weather would be around the 23rd and 24th of March, the 2nd through 4th of April, and then again later in April, around the 10th through 12th.

Here are the archived BSR maps provided on the organicforecasting.com.

 March 23rd, 2017

 Forecast on March 6th, 2017

March 24th, 2017

Forecast on March 7th, 2017

April 2nd, 2017

Forecast on March 16th, 2017

April 3rd, 2017

Forecast on March 17th, 2017

April 4th, 2017

Forecast on March 18th, 2017

April 5th, 2017

Forecast on March 18th, 2017

April 6th, 2017

Forecast on March 19th, 2017

April 10th, 2017

Forecast on March 24th, 2017

April 11th, 2017

Forecast on March 25th, 2017

 

Let’s take a look at those dates via the Storm Prediction Center’s report page. These will all be filtered reports to take out those which were duplicates.

March 23rd, 2017

March 24th, 2017

April 2nd, 2017

April 3rd, 2017

April 4th, 2017

April 5th, 2017

April 6th, 2017

April 10th, 2017 Day 1 Outlook

April 10th, 2017 Day 2 Outlook for 4/11-4/12

 

(23)

Severe Weather Signals

Hello all,

We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on.  Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.

What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather.  Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.

The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.

Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.

Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.

Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…

 

 

 

 

Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.

(23)

January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

(11)

CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

(10)

December Verification

Hello everyone!

As promised, I have finally gotten around to looking at December’s #bsr verification.

Here is the BSR depiction, both surface and 500mb, for December 1st.

The surface and 500mb of what actually happened.

It goes without saying that for an 18 day lag time, the #bsr did very well! An occluded system off of Southern New England, three low pressure systems over the desert Southwest, and a clipper coming down the pipe in the Northern Plains.

Fast forward a few days to December 6th.

The BSR depicted a system in the Northern Plains with a dominate trough stretching into the Pacific Northwest aided by a dual upper level low pattern, along with a system moving into the Southeast with ridging in front.

Next is the cold shot for the 12th-20th…

 December 12th

The BSR had ridging pushing up the East coast with a mean trough over the Plains and West. This did very well to start off.

December 13th

The BSR had a strong storm system developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley that never materialized for the CONUS which skewed the next couple of days..

December 14th

 

 

December 15th

 

 

The BSR had a trough focused on the Ohio Valley with ridging off the East Coast and another trough in the West. East coast didn’t do too bad, but the trough for the West was too far East.

December 16th

 

 

The BSR had another strong system moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley to which I was warning about a severe weather event.

December 17th

 

 

The severe weather event that I thought would start on the 16th was delayed by a day. Ridging over the East coast did well, but the trough was too far East on the BSR maps.  I would think that the lag time was a day off.

December 18th

 

 

December 19th

 

Something else that the BSR keyed in on was the ULL in area of the Baja Peninsula.

December 20th

 

Early in December everyone was going nuts over the ridging in the Bering Sea which promoted a -WPO & -EPO combination and allowed the influx of cold air during the above time period. While they were doing so, I kept warning them that they won’t be happy during the week of Christmas because the warmth would return with a vengeance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…off to work I go! If you have any questions email me at kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

Also, make sure you tune in tonight for a streaming show that Dr. Lupo and I will be interviewed on regarding the #bsr and #organicforecasting!

 

(25)

SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh’s January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.

Look at what the BSR is showing…

One might look at the above maps and think…how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such…The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further…the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS

Euro

On a side note…here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th…

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support…

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini’s research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

(85)

When Organic Forecasting Sees The Future Months In Advance

Part of Josh’s Recurring Rossby Wave Train research was a severe weather experiment first posted on January 30th. The Storm Prediction Center is utilizing a new experimental forecasting technique based on the Climate Forecasting System. Looking below you can see the results of the model from 1/26/16 until 3/10/16. Here is the link to said product below.

Cross reference the above with the dates that Josh provided on January 30th.

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days

12/2302/1304/0505/27 (Ref)

12/3002/2004/1206/03 (Ref)

01/0903/0104/2206/13 (Ref)

Now, as you can see above, the forecast on March 8th was the first to highlight the period between April 12th through April 21st. With Josh’s experiment being documented on January 30th, that was a 38 day lead time until the CFS model hit on that period! Going further…that is a 73 and 83 day lead time for severe weather pattern recognition. That being said…I am going to introduce you to one of the graphics that Dr. Lupo created for our research paper based on Autocorrelation of the PNA.

As you can see, we have spikes at ~52 and ~76 days. This is just one of the series graphics that we have created because, as Josh has found, there are two distinct wavelengths of the RRWT.

More to come later!

(63)

Collaboration vs Competition

Hello everyone!

In the world of weather, it’s a dog eat dog world. Social media has expanded this rivalry ten fold. Over the past week we have seen some amazing things in the world of meteorology research. Dr. Victor Gensini and Al Marinaro published their work, 2016: Tornado frequency in the United States related to global relative angular momentum, to the American Meteorological Society’s Monthly Weather Review to much fanfare.  The global wind oscillation, or GWO as we call it, is another intraseasonal oscillation, or ISO,  that is utilized to predict the weather.

More and more research into ISO’s are showing that there is a level of predictability in weather. Dr. Gensini, for instance, noted in the GWO research that there is success in predicting tornadoes and hail via the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, two weeks in advance. I plan on cite their research in our future ISO research that will be ongoing for quite a few years.

Dr. Gensini’s work takes the ongoing research and bumps it up a notch.  His index, Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF), pushes the forecast ability to 3 weeks.  Keep this in mind…3 weeks, or 21 days.  The research team of Renken, Herman, Bradshaw, and Lupo have been focused on case studies while our own index for both the BSR and severe weather are on the table in the near future. Our research has been along the same lines as Mr. Gensini’s…just a tad different. Remember one of my favorite catch phrases is “It’s all related!”. Instead of utilizing the MJO and GWO specifically, we took a slice of the globe and created correlation points as to quantify it. 

I am giving huge kudos to Dr. Gensini and Al Marinaro for bringing pattern recognition into the lime light.  Organic forecasting, as our research team calls it, shows just how important the government, energy, emergency management, and agriculture industries would benefit.

Now..to the competition part of this post.  It seems that there are some meteorologist who claim that both his research and ours are part of his “pattern“.

A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

The basis of our research, when it comes down to it, is the Rossby Wave.  If one looks at the AMS Journals website, you will find over 9738 journals related to the Rossby Wave which was founded by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. This also shows that, contrary to what Mr. Heady says above, the research into a “cycling atmosphere” has been going on for decades. Not only that, but Mr. Heady has submitted no research papers to quantify his pattern recognition technique. All of our research has been well documented on the internet via the Accuweather.com forums, Josh’s original blogspot, our Bering Sea Rule Blogspot, and finally…this blog.

(23)

SPC Day 2 Risk Upgraded

As promised, here is the updated Day 2 Convection Outlook from the SPC.

 

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
   SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
   AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
   MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  A FEW OF THE
   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
   A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
   INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
   LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
   PERIOD.  A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
   PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
   FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
   WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME.  ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
   THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 

   A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   BANDS.  WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
   SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/.  DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
   TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

   ...COASTAL SC...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
   MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
   THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT.

   ..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

Take note of how they mention the threat continues after dark.  If you know anyone in the highlighted regions above, please let them know the severity of the situation.

(5)

January BSR Verification Time

Hello everyone!

Below you see a tweet regarding the BSR 500mb forecast for the period of February 14th-18th.

That forecast was made on February 2nd.

Look below for what happened during that time period.

Admittedly, the Rockies and West Coast did not perform that well.  That being said…the East Coast and Northern Mid-Atlantic was nailed.

Also, someone on social media got all but hurt regarding my last post on “Today’s Severe Weather” and how it must be nice to hindcast.  Well…after the brief Facebook exchange that he had with me, I looked in my prior postings…lo and behold…

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So! showed towards the middle my thoughts on the President’s Day severe weather.

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

This was the Day 4-8 Outlook from the SPC issued on January 8th for the period ending 12z January 16th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PERVASIVE OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST D6...AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AIR-MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE NRN GULF AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NON-NEGLIGIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EVEN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/08/2016

Then again…here is the period ending on 12z January 17th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DAYS 4-5 /TUE-WED/...AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX PREVAILS
   OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  DURING THIS TIME...WITH A POLAR
   AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

   MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES BEYOND DAY 5...AS THE FIRST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN U.S. TROUGHS REACHES THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  THE
   EURO MAINTAINS A STRONGER FEATURE...PHASING IT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH ROUNDING THE SWRN SIDE OF THE ERN U.S. VORTEX AND THUS
   DRIVING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NRN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS INTO DAY
   6.  MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THUS LITTLE RISK FOR GULF
   COAST CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE LACK OF APPARENT RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND DIVERGENT
   MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER...NO RISK AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
   FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 01/09/2016

Both times they recognize that severe weather could be possible, but the risk are too low to be issued in the forecast.

Here are the storm reports for the 16th.

(26)