It’s that time once again to see how we did the month prior!
01JUL14 Long Range Discussion…
Not to be underminded by the typhoon, a system from the Bering Sea will actually retrograde into the Japanese Island of Hokkaido. This will pump up a ridge for those in Central Missouri until two systems, one on July 4th, and another on July 7th, bring a quick cool down from the heat. That being said, the ridge quickly rebuilds. So…the 24th and 27th of July will see storminess in the KOPN listening area and ridging to start the month of August.
Please reference the next weeks forecast and analysis.
08JUL14 Long Range Discussion…
The Bering Sea Rule is showing an East Coast and Great Lakes trough in the beginning of our forecast period from the 9th until the 13th of July. This translates to the 29th of July into the 3rd of August. At the same time the trough is in position out East, we will be experiencing above normal temperatures due to an upper level low over Sakhalin Island. Then, an upper level low sets up shop in the Bering Sea between July 15th and 20th. This means below normal temperatures from the 5th to the 10th of August.
If we look at the climate data for the last days of July and first 3 days of August, you can see that we experienced a warm up, but just not to the magnitude that I thought it would be. The night time lows were below average enough that even with a high temperature being 88° on the 2nd, we were -3° due to a low of 59°.
Also take note how we were sandwiched between the below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and East Coast and the Southern Plains which validated the first sentence of this discussion.
14JUL14 Long Range Discussion…
The Bering Sea Rule has moderating heights until the 21st, which translates to a warming trend late in the first full week of August. Then a trough comes in until the 28th. This trough is stout and has multiple systems rotating around the backside of it to provide Central Missouri with multiple rain chances and quick drop in temperatures until at least the 18th of August.
We reached 90° and 91° on the 5th and 6th of August before the cold front came in and put our high at 79° that day!
21JUL14 Long Range Discussion…
A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July. It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again. This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd of August for our first true heat wave.
Obviously my placement was incorrect and I will look deeper into this as to why. We didn’t actually reach ‘heat wave’ status until the 23rd as the definition states you need at least 3 days of temperatures above 90°.
29JUL14 Long Range Discussion…
The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern. This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.
The cold front didn’t have the moxie that I thought it would and we quickly had a second heat wave from the 28th to the 31st.
07AUG14 Long Range Discussion…
After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest. This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.
Note the two surface low pressures in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas to our Southwest.
Overall, I give myself a ‘B’ due to my inability to gauge the correct strength of the ridge or trough on a few occasions.