Category Archives: heat wave

CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

40th Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop

Hello everyone!

 

I just finished uploading the recording of my oral presentation at the 40th Annual Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop in Denver.  Enjoy!

Mid-September Update

Hello all!

 

Taken from my post on August 17th…

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

Here are the European Weeklies from August 21st showing 500mb heights.

 

 

Note the upper heights in the NE Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Now, look at the Week 4 for the CONUS.

 

 

Trough in the Plains with heat in the Southeast.  At that point I believed it had the pattern, but couldn’t grasp the implications.

Lo, and behold, week 3 shows what I’m talking about…

 

The heat expands up the East Coast to Canada and includes Texas.  Also, note that the below normal departures have gotten larger in the Dakota’s.

 

 

EDIT:  A friend of mine let me know that I couldn’t post the weeklies.  Thanks Al!

Dual Typhoons Again?!

Hey everyone,

 

Once again we are hearing chatter about two typhoons in the Western Pacific!

 

Typhoon Goni moves progressively West as it gets stronger reaching Supertyphoon status on the 20th at 130kts with maximum gust up to 160kts before gaining latitude between Luzon and Taiwan.

Goni

Typhoon Atsanti gains latitude, in part, due to an upper level low situated over the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.

Atsani

 

Now…the importance is straightforward if y’all have followed me over time.

 

The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

 

As of this writing, we are seeing both typhoons recurving.  Goni gets absorbed in an upper level low over the Korean Peninsula while Atsanti gets slingshot into another system over Sakhalin Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula.  Let’s take a look at what the 6-10 day forecast looks like via the Climate Prediction Center…

17AUG610day

 

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

 

President Obama’s U.N. Climate Summit Speech

 

USA Today went even farther by interviewing the National Weather Service Director, Louis Uccellini, for a more detailed explanation of what POTUS Obama meant.

 

To kick off the effort this year, NOAA will begin issuing weekly three- to four-week precipitation outlooks and will extend its current extreme-heat index product, now six to 10 days, out to eight to 14 days, giving communities several additional days to prepare for potential life-threatening heat waves,” according to a NOAA release.

 

Oh…but why just precipitation?  We can do sooo much more!

 

This is only the beginning!

 

 

August Verification

Hello everyone!

 

It’s that time once again to see how we did the month prior!

 

01JUL14 Long Range Discussion

Not to be underminded by the typhoon, a system from the Bering Sea will actually retrograde into the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.  This will pump up a ridge for those in Central Missouri until two systems, one on July 4th, and another on July 7th, bring a quick cool down from the heat.  That being said, the ridge quickly rebuilds.  So…the 24th and 27th of July will see storminess in the KOPN listening area and ridging to start the month of August.

Please reference the next weeks forecast and analysis.

08JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule is showing an East Coast and Great Lakes trough in the beginning of our forecast period from the 9th until the 13th of July.  This translates to the 29th of July into the 3rd of August.  At the same time the trough is in position out East, we will be experiencing above normal temperatures due to an upper level low over Sakhalin Island.  Then, an upper level low sets up shop in the Bering Sea between July 15th and 20th.  This means below normal temperatures from the 5th to the 10th of August.

If we look at the climate data for the last days of July and first 3 days of August, you can see that we experienced a warm up, but just not to the magnitude that I thought it would be. The night time lows were below average enough that even with a high temperature being 88° on the 2nd, we were -3° due to a low of 59°.

Also take note how we were sandwiched between the below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and East Coast and the Southern Plains which validated the first sentence of this discussion.

29JUL_03AUG

14JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule has moderating heights until the 21st, which translates to a warming trend late in the first full week of August.  Then a trough comes in until the 28th.  This trough is stout and has multiple systems rotating around the backside of it to provide Central Missouri with multiple rain chances and quick drop in temperatures until at least the 18th of August.

We reached 90° and 91° on the 5th and 6th of August before the cold front came in and put our high at 79° that day!

 

August 4th-8th

04AUG_08AUG

 

August 7th-18th

07AUG14_18AUG

 

21JUL14 Long Range Discussion

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

14AUG_23AUG

Obviously my placement was incorrect and I will look deeper into this as to why. We didn’t actually reach ‘heat wave’ status until the 23rd as the definition states you need at least 3 days of temperatures above 90°.

 

29JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

The cold front didn’t have the moxie that I thought it would and we quickly had a second heat wave from the 28th to the 31st.

26AUG_Cold_Front

 

07AUG14 Long Range Discussion…

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

Note the two surface low pressures in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas to our Southwest.

01SEP_Cold_Front

30AUG_03SEP

 

Overall, I give myself a ‘B’ due to my inability to gauge the correct strength of the ridge or trough on a few occasions.

 

 

Heat…What Heat??

Yep…it’s a #heatwave! Did we have a heads up? We sure did!!!

July 21st Long Range Forecast Discussion

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

 

Rest assured that we will have a cool down to follow though!

July 29th Long Range Forecast Discussion

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

 

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
  FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 105 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
  AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

07AUG14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The models have finally converged on a solution regarding the interaction of Typhoon Halong into an upper level low over Southeast Russia.  Instead of a true recurvature, we are seeing it become absorbed into said system.  This works in concert with the Bering Sea Rule call last month because the trough isn’t as strong, and misplaced, to have a major impact on our weather. So, I see a moderating warm up until the 18th of August when our heat will make a return. Then, a new system hits Japan on August 16th and that will translate to roughly the 24th of August and matching our July 21st Bering Sea call for below normal temperatures around the 25th.

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

29JUL14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Halong is yet another influence right now in the Western Pacific.  It is forecasted to be in the East China and Yellow Seas from tomorrow until the 3rd of August due to a weakness.  This means that the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley will be in an easing trough and the Northeast Coast will experience ridging from the 6th to the 9th of August. There are conflicting results between the models immediately after that with another typhoon forming.    This is the period around the 14th of August and the start of our heat wave advertised by the Bering Sea Rule last month.

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.