Category Archives: Arctic Blast

CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

January BSR Verification Time

Hello everyone!

Below you see a tweet regarding the BSR 500mb forecast for the period of February 14th-18th.

That forecast was made on February 2nd.

Look below for what happened during that time period.

Admittedly, the Rockies and West Coast did not perform that well.  That being said…the East Coast and Northern Mid-Atlantic was nailed.

Also, someone on social media got all but hurt regarding my last post on “Today’s Severe Weather” and how it must be nice to hindcast.  Well…after the brief Facebook exchange that he had with me, I looked in my prior postings…lo and behold…

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So! showed towards the middle my thoughts on the President’s Day severe weather.

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

This was the Day 4-8 Outlook from the SPC issued on January 8th for the period ending 12z January 16th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PERVASIVE OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST D6...AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AIR-MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE NRN GULF AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NON-NEGLIGIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EVEN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/08/2016

Then again…here is the period ending on 12z January 17th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DAYS 4-5 /TUE-WED/...AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX PREVAILS
   OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  DURING THIS TIME...WITH A POLAR
   AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

   MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES BEYOND DAY 5...AS THE FIRST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN U.S. TROUGHS REACHES THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  THE
   EURO MAINTAINS A STRONGER FEATURE...PHASING IT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH ROUNDING THE SWRN SIDE OF THE ERN U.S. VORTEX AND THUS
   DRIVING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NRN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS INTO DAY
   6.  MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THUS LITTLE RISK FOR GULF
   COAST CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE LACK OF APPARENT RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND DIVERGENT
   MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER...NO RISK AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
   FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 01/09/2016

Both times they recognize that severe weather could be possible, but the risk are too low to be issued in the forecast.

Here are the storm reports for the 16th.

When Modeling Agrees

Earlier today, Ian Livingston of Capital Weather Gang, tweets an ESRL map showing the European EPS 11-15 analogs and how they looked.

This is what the Bering Sea Rule showed on the 4th of January for the same time period.

That is the joy of #organicforecasting!

More Support For Mid-Month Cold Snap

Another great resource that I use is from a good friend of mine, Al Marinaro, or @wxmidwest.

His models utilize the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast and comprise a set of analogs.

Here is what he has for the week 2 period.

Here is what the BSR showed on 31DEC15.

Just showing support to the Bering Sea Rule goes beyond what we claim.

Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities

Hello all,

Over the years, Josh and I have been able to predict what type of storm, or general storm track, we’d see in the coming 20 days with a mixture of his Rossby Wave research combined with the BSR.  While looking at the Accuweather “Organic Forecasting” thread, I saw a perfect opportunity.

Below is a group of ‘BSR H5 Maps’ from our site starting with a 12Z 09NOV15 Northern Pacific OBS.

Pay attention to the trough that shows up just North of Washington State in the overlay.

 

27NOV15_forecast1 27NOV15_forecast2

 

Note how the system dives down into ‘North Dakota’ as if it was a clipper system.

 

28NOV15_forecast1

 

It then “lifts” northeast to just North of Lake Superior.

28NOV15_forecast2

 

Our next frame shows that it has jumped off the Mid-Atlantic coast while deepening. How can I be sure?  In the frame above, you can see another system to the NW of our original.  That system has rotated to the Quebec region of Canada.

 

29NOV15_forecast1

29NOV15_forecast2

Here is merely an example of the difference between a ‘Miller A’ and ‘Miller B’ storm.Miller_Storms

 

We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

 

In the coming days we will keep track of how the models show this system and how the typhoon rule will come to play!

40th Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop

Hello everyone!

 

I just finished uploading the recording of my oral presentation at the 40th Annual Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop in Denver.  Enjoy!

29JAN15 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule is showing a system move through the Far East on the 30th of January with ridging between the 2nd and 3rd of February before another system on the 4th of February.  Then a clipper like system moves in from the Northwest on the 5th of February to usher in a cold spell that last from the 7th of February into the 13th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a storm on February 6th with a slight warm up on February 9th and 10th before another storm on the 11th.  The kicker is a clipper on the 12th which ushers in cold air that last all the way until February 20th. This matches the long range discussion on the 19th of this month.

The Bering Sea has an impressive ridge complex after a storm on the 31st of January to the West of Shemya Island.  This ridging will continue into the 6th of February until it retrogrades Westward allowing a Northerly flow to take over and bring temperatures below normal until the 12th of February.  The Central Missouri correlation means that from February 18th into February 26th we will see above normal temperatures.  The cold then hits us on February 27th into March 4th as a result per our research.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

January 7th Clipper Forecast…25 and 10 Days Prior!!!

Hey everyone!

 

While looking through the Accuweather.com forums it dawned on me that I wanted to see how well I did on the January 7th call.  Without further hesitation, here we go…

 

Bering Sea Section of 13DEC14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea shows a strong storm developing on the 15th.  We then see a gradual warming trend until a spike in temperatures prior to an even stronger storm on the 18th of December.  This translates to a strong storm around January 7th here.  My personal thoughts are that this will provide areas of the North Central Plains with a significant snowstorm and well above normal temperatures for Central Missouri prior to it. Northwest flow follows with cold air until the 10th.

Typhoon Rule Section of 28DEC14 Long Range Discussion

The typhoon rule has a system impacting Japan today with slight ridging before another system on the 30th.  A potent trough takes over and more energy comes from the Northwest on New Year’s Day.  Then, zonal flow takes over before a slow ridging and storm on the 5th of January. The trough that follows hangs around to at least the 9th of January.  For Central Missouri, this means a storm on January 4th with slight warm up before another storm on the 6th when the cold shot hits and a clipper comes down the pipe on January 7th.  A gradual warm up ensues until the next storm on January 12th with more cold to follow until at least January 16th.

From the St. Louis National Weather Service AFD, Area Forecast Discussion…note the similarities?
Attention for tonight will turn to the deformation zone which will
slide through the northwest third of the CWFA. Mid/upper level
forcing mechanisms do not look overly impressive as shortwave
dampens as it heads northeastward. Precipitation amounts not
surprisingly do not look too high given the lack of strong upper
air forcing for ascent with amounts generally under a quarter of an
inch. Thermal profiles suggest precipitation starting as rain within
the precip shield tonight before slowly transitioning to snow as
a) the BL cools sufficiently and b) midlevels re-saturate to
reintroduce the presence of ice crystals. All in all…appears to be
roughly a ~3 hour window for possible snow accumulations. Tack on
poor antecedant conditions…i.e. a warm/wet ground…snowfall amounts
should be light. Highest amounts should still be in Knox County topping
out around an inch.

A secondary shortwave will follow quickly on the heels of its
predecessor. Left mention of flurries into the day on Sunday due to
the forcing from this shortwave and broad cyclonic flow aloft.
Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Sunday than today with
non-diurnal temperatures continuing for a large portion of the area.

(Sunday Night – Friday)

Rest of the valid forecast period still appears dry. Mid/upper level
flow will amplify across the CONUS with a ridge along the west coast
and a broad trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
First in what will likely be a series of upper-level disturbances will
transverse the Upper Midwest and slide into the mid-Atlantic region
on Monday night. Maintained sch PoPs for far northeastern sections of
the area which may get clipped by clipper. Most of area still looks dry
however there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in eventual track.

Pattern looks even further amplified heading into midweek with a
much stronger shot of arctic air in store. Certainly looks by far and
away the coldest air we have seen thus far this mild winter season.
Look for temperatures some 20+ degrees below normal day/night Wed/Thu.
Lows will likely even dip below zero over portions of the area Thu
morning…which is quite impressive given the high likelihood of no
snow cover…just goes to show how truly impressive the air mass is.

 

One note regarding the last paragraph, the fact that we have no snow cover will allow for a gradual rebound of temperatures as stated in my earlier forecast discussions.

Here are some graphics…

Day 3 Snowfall ≥4″ probabilities…my call on the North Central Plains was off as the clipper doesn’t get it’s moxie going until the Northern Midwest.

 

 

day3_psnow_gt_04

 

Day 3 CONUS map

9jhwbg_conus

 

The WPC 500mb charts for Days 3-7…focuses on the NW flow and it relaxes as we approach the 9th.

5dayfcst500_wbg