Category Archives: Intraseasonal Oscillation

Forecast Rodeo Comparisons

Hello everyone!

The team received this email today regarding the Forecast Rodeo

I am looking forward to the ‘official’ scores mid-month, but in the meantime, let’s look at how we fared.

Here are the forecast that we provided the rodeo with on 4/04/17 for the period of 4/18-5/1.

Accumulated Precipitation in millimeters

Average Temperature in Celsius

A few different looks at the results…

Precipitation in inches

Temperature in Fahrenheit

Now…since the Western Region Climate Center doesn’t extend into the Plains, I’ve included the complete US maps below. Otherwise, I’d have to include 2 of each from the High Plains & Southern regions.

Due to the difference in data, mm vs in & (C) vs (F), note the patterns instead…unless you are fine with converting each.

The evaluation criteria information for said rodeo is listed below…

Evaluation criteria

Forecast skill will be evaluated for temperature and precipitation separately since the drivers responsible for prediction of these variables are different and the subsequent skill level is also expected to be different. Moreover, the 15-28 day and 29-42 day periods will be evaluated individually for similar reasons. Winning forecasts must outperform CFSv2 and damped persistence forecasts (see definitions below). Specifically, skill will be evaluated individually for temperature and precipitation for weeks 3-4 and weeks 5-6 as the highest skill over the competition domain, averaged over the entire competition time period. To be prize eligible, Solvers must also demonstrate historical skill of statistical significance that is equal to or greater than that of the CFSv2 through submission of a hind-cast analysis described below.

So, with the above in mind, let’s look at the CPC Weeks 3&4 forecast. Yes, I’m familiar that it’s not the CFS Week 3&4, but I couldn’t grab the archived forecast.

Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

Temperature Anomaly Forecast

 

The resulting anomalies…

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February Verification

Hello everyone! I know, I know…”Joe, you are quite a bit late on the February verification post!” There were so many different routes that I couldn’t decide to take on this that it left me confounded.

One thing that I’d like to touch base on was the 3 day ROC scores for the Northeast during February. Astonishingly good would be the best way of describing it!

 As you can see above, not only did the 3 day ROC of the BSR nail the pattern overall during February, but it literally had a 1:1 correlation on multiple days!

The 7 day pattern correlation of the ROC shows the high correlation even better with score verification.

The first 5 days of the month showed this as it pertained to the BSR 500mb map.

 As you can see above, the Western ridge/Eastern trough was foretold. The trough was focused over Quebec, extending into most of the Eastern US, and the ridge was focused over the Intermountain West.

The above graphic from the ESRL daily composite site, with a focused point of the US, shows the ridge verified SE of the BSR while the trough apex was split between Newfoundland and James Bay. The ridge extending to the SE coast nullified the minimal BSR below normal look South of the Mason-Dixon line.

The next event I will bring up is the February 7th, 2017 severe weather that hit the Gulf Coast. The idea which the BSR started to paint was one which had a system develop over the lee of the Rockies and move East affecting the gulf region.

The first “official” hint on the organicforecasting.com BSR section was January 16th, 2017 with the 96hr OPC forecast overlay.

 While these overlays were produced on January 21st, 2017 based on 500mb analysis.

Almost immediately afterwards, we saw the potential for a strong storm to hit the Northeast via the next system based on the 96hr OPC forecast overlays starting on the 18th of January, 2017.

These maps are based on 500mb analysis once again.

Compare the maps for February 10th to what the Weather Prediction Center had for Days 5 & 7 forecast of February 9th on the left side of the next two pictures!

 Day 7 Forecast vs Verification

Day 5 Forecast vs Verification

On the Accuweather.com forums we have “adopted” a naming strategy to storms which the BSR nails…”Dark Knight Blizzard” as my nickname is the “Dark Knight” dating back to the January 20th, 2016 storm. This is the forecast thread, while here is the OBS thread for the DKBIII storm.

I will reference something that was brought up in the weatherboy.com article dated February 12th, 2017.

This is a warm pattern upcoming for much of the U.S., especially east of the Rockies. In the 10 day period ending around the 22nd of this month, many areas of the country will be 10 degrees above normal with some as high as 20 degrees above normal. Though New England will be the slowest to warm, after the current blizzard departs, temperatures will soar even there to well above normal readings about a week from now. While they warm slowly in New England, temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and South will be well above normal for much of this upcoming week.

“A strong area of high pressure over the North Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska retrograded, meaning it headed west, instead of the normal east that most weather systems take (in late January) and this teleconnected to a ridge of high pressure off the Southeast coast heading west and dominating the eastern US,” explains Renken.  This type of weather pattern encourages a strong west to east flow across the Lower Forty Eight  and will combine with the much stronger than normal Pacific jetstream to allow warmth to dominate.

Below you can see the Des Moines, IA data for the period of February 1st-22nd. I placed the 10 day period from the 12th-22nd in red squares.

Even though I didn’t see the departures get larger than 20° above normal, the pattern was foreseen and warned about. I suspect that the raging Pacific jet that I spoke about added extra moxie to the pattern.

While the pattern indicates a warm stretch of weather, a change is also likely around the 20th of the month. “This very well could be another severe weather outbreak with the Southeast with the Gulf Coast states being the area seeing the greatest threat for severe weather,” Mr. Renken stressed.

Even though the outbreak didn’t come true due to mesoscale features not lining up, the potential was there and foretold.

Here are the reports from the 19th.

The SPC outlooks for the remaining days.

BSR map created on February 3rd, 2017. Note the ULL over West Texas, the corresponding ridge over the Deep South, another ULL off the SE coast and the Mid-Atl.

The West Texas ULL hasn’t closed off yet in the OBS, but the ridge is created ahead, ULL between Bermuda and the Bahama’s, and the last ULL over Nova Scotia.

A look at the BSR ESRL generated map for the 18th-22nd.

This is the corresponding OBS at 500mb.

This storm will be followed by a change to more normal temperatures.  Mr. Renken explained, “The stronger than normal jetstream slamming into California has been the overwhelming meteorological factor in our mild winter so far. And there is no sign of this factor going away. Plus Canada has been running way above normal temperature-wise. Combining these and other factors, I don’t think a pattern of sustained cold in the East will exist.”  After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

The BSR had this for the last 4 days of February.

Here are the last 4 days of February…

 Boston, MA data showing the cold was “muted” as predicted. That being said, going from 25° above normal to 7° above normal is a nice cold front that I’m sure those in the region were happy to see.

These are the 3 day ROC charts for the Mountain and Central regions.

The Mountain 3 day ROC had the pattern, but not the magnitude during the same period.

While the Central 3 day ROC was off by 3 days in the recovery.

So, overall, I’d say that the BSR did quite well during the month of February!

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What Happened With The BSR?!

Hello everyone! I’ve decided to follow up on an article that I was interviewed for with The Weatherboy.

First, let’s look at the outlooks from an earlier interview on February 12th

After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.

Here are the stats for Bangor, ME in February and the first part of March. Bangor, ME is our correlation point with Kodiak Island, AK.

As you can see, the volatile pattern is there.  The cold snaps of late February didn’t materialize because of the Pacific jet coming back to life per this graphic. So my comment of them being “muted” was spot on for the later part of February.

The low pressure well of the West Coast acts as a catalyst to increase the speed of the jet once it turns zonal over the CONUS.

Another method that we utilize in the BSR is our 3 Day ROC, or Rate of Change. The orange line designates our correlation on Kodiak Island, while the green designation is Bangor, ME.

Note how the 3 day ROC basically nailed the pattern from 2/12/17-3/10/17. This can be confirmed by looking at our 3 day ROC pR option below.

The above graphics were brought up in the Weatherboy article

We keep a detailed record of what the BSR’s repeating pattern, its so-called ‘lag’, is every day.

One thing I’d like to bring up is how the BSR did show a storm in the MidAtl and Northeast on March 13th as seen below.

A dissipating low pressure just South of Cape Hatteras, NC with two shortwaves to it’s West.  One stretching in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the other from the Ohio Valley to Cuba.  It’s obvious that these two shortwaves ‘phased’ and gave us…

Finally…there is a forecast method that is utilized by multiple NWS offices which uses Hovmoller graphics. This “in-house” method stated that the severe weather threat for the Plains and Upper Midwest actually merged with a long range “frequency”, or “signal”, to create the above storm off the Northeast coast.

Finally, be careful of anyone on “wxtwitter” or various Facebook groups that claimed they foretold a big storm coming well in advance of 20 days! Them saying that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast stood a chance for snow is a huge difference than calling for what was on the table!

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Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Looks Familiar

Hey everyone!

Here is the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook issued last night for the period of March 4th-10th.

Here is what the BSR was showing on February 20th.

That being said, the BSR ESRL maps have a lag of developed and we can see the pattern 6 days earlier as the surface and 500mb maps are produced.

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Severe Weather Signals

Hello all,

We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on.  Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.

What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather.  Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.

The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.

Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.

Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.

Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…

 

 

 

 

Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.

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An Early Look Into February Verification

Hey everyone,

While looking at the long range thread of Accuweather.com’s forums, it moved me to look up a few things.

The BSR depiction of February 5th-9th at the 500mb level.

Here is what the European model was showing for 7am today back on January 26th.

 This is what the late night run of the GFS showed last night for the same time period.

 

The GEFS 5 day from February 5th-10th has this.

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January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

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December Verification

Hello everyone!

As promised, I have finally gotten around to looking at December’s #bsr verification.

Here is the BSR depiction, both surface and 500mb, for December 1st.

The surface and 500mb of what actually happened.

It goes without saying that for an 18 day lag time, the #bsr did very well! An occluded system off of Southern New England, three low pressure systems over the desert Southwest, and a clipper coming down the pipe in the Northern Plains.

Fast forward a few days to December 6th.

The BSR depicted a system in the Northern Plains with a dominate trough stretching into the Pacific Northwest aided by a dual upper level low pattern, along with a system moving into the Southeast with ridging in front.

Next is the cold shot for the 12th-20th…

 December 12th

The BSR had ridging pushing up the East coast with a mean trough over the Plains and West. This did very well to start off.

December 13th

The BSR had a strong storm system developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley that never materialized for the CONUS which skewed the next couple of days..

December 14th

 

 

December 15th

 

 

The BSR had a trough focused on the Ohio Valley with ridging off the East Coast and another trough in the West. East coast didn’t do too bad, but the trough for the West was too far East.

December 16th

 

 

The BSR had another strong system moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley to which I was warning about a severe weather event.

December 17th

 

 

The severe weather event that I thought would start on the 16th was delayed by a day. Ridging over the East coast did well, but the trough was too far East on the BSR maps.  I would think that the lag time was a day off.

December 18th

 

 

December 19th

 

Something else that the BSR keyed in on was the ULL in area of the Baja Peninsula.

December 20th

 

Early in December everyone was going nuts over the ridging in the Bering Sea which promoted a -WPO & -EPO combination and allowed the influx of cold air during the above time period. While they were doing so, I kept warning them that they won’t be happy during the week of Christmas because the warmth would return with a vengeance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…off to work I go! If you have any questions email me at kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

Also, make sure you tune in tonight for a streaming show that Dr. Lupo and I will be interviewed on regarding the #bsr and #organicforecasting!

 

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Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It’s amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole…

  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society’s New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association’s Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou’s meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let’s go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.

Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.

 

 

 

A few tweets early this month…

 

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What’s All The Hoopla About…Part Two!

In my hoopla post on December 1st, I discussed how the #BSR saw the pattern change to cold that we are, and will, experience in the coming days.  Let’s focus on the last section of that post.

 

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

Note the ridge with the highest anomalies just South of the Aleutian Island chain and moving into the Eastern Bering Sea.

BSR Map

Our current lag time is running at 17 days.

BSR Lag

Here is the NOAA CPC 8-14 day analog.

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