Category Archives: East Asia Rule

January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

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CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

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Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It’s amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole…

  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society’s New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association’s Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou’s meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let’s go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.

Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.

 

 

 

A few tweets early this month…

 

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What’s All The Hoopla About??!!

Now, those that know me know I’m just poking fun with the above.  Why do you ask?  Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.

Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!

I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.

Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.

Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.

The strength lies in the West and “bleeds” east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!

Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our “trifecta” of Organic Forecasting.

As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.

For good measure, let’s add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak…

Hmmm…a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th.  Coincidence…I think not.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

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Busy As All Get Out!!

Hello everyone!

It has been quite crazy for me.  My job at the Department of Veterans Affairs has been working me hard and it’s a bit to get use to.

I attended the NWAS Annual Meeting on September 14th to present the Recurring Rossby Wave Train research and feel it went very well.  Once the NWAS updates the presentations to become available I’ll let you know!  A shout out to those who continue to support me via the GoFundMe account! Without your support, I would not have the ability to attend these conferences!

One a side note, I had the luxury to discuss the #organicforecasting method to Ginger Zee of GMA!

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We Have Been Parodied!

Hello everyone!

Sorry that it has been some time since I’ve posted but life events have taken their toll on my ability to keep up here.  Since my post last month the popularity of our #organicforecasting method has gained some steam.  This, in due part, because of a few meteorologist who have been able to utilize our methodology very well in forecasting past the models current 14 days.  Not only that, but they have the ability to let their viewers know that when models go through the typical “cha-cha”, that they need to be confident that the #organicforecasting method holds true.

Yes, we have seen some set backs here and there since I’ve started utilizing this method in earnest over 3 years ago.  However, that being said, our success has outpaced the set backs. We will continue to learn from the bust potentials that we’ve gone through and strive to improve the forecasting method.

With the above in mind, I found out four days ago that someone in Boston, MA created a parody twitter account to bring out our “failures”.  One issue that I have is where they came after one of the meteorologist who utilizes our system, Michael Clark of BAM Chase.

Here is the tweet in question…

I know the ESRL map is too small to figure out the dates, but they are from June 23rd, 2016 through June 27th, 2016. A blown up version…

 So…Michael had stated it was going to get cooler during that period.  Let’s look at the 5 days prior to that…June 17th, 2016 through June 22, 2016.

The above maps are utilizing the same reanalysis set from the Earth Systems Research Library so there is no confusion. As for the legend, even though the numbers on the right are set different, the range is still at .5 for each color code.

Let’s place them side by side and you tell me if what we said came true?

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The Weather Junkies Interview

Hey gang,

Sorry that it took a while to update the blog with the latest #organicforecasting interview, but here it is.

Ep 25: Long Range Forecasts Using Bering Sea & Typhoon Rule w/ JD Renken

 

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SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support

In our organic forecasting methodology, we have seen on numerous times where within 20 days of a major Southern Oscillation Index drop of over 10 points we see a major system impact the Eastern CONUS. Here you can see a 15 point drop between March 23rd and March 24th.

Match that up with Josh’s January 30th blog entry and you get the 12th of April.

Look at what the BSR is showing…

One might look at the above maps and think…how the heck is that going to signify a severe weather event when the upper level low is over Port Arthur, TX?!  We have proved on multiple occasions this past year that our correlation is as such…The BSR placement is always ~400 miles SE of the OBS over the CONUS.

Going further…the EAR, East Asia Rule, shows that a strong trough will be over Manchuria in the coming days.

GFS

Euro

On a side note…here is what Michael Ventrice tweeted on March 28th…

Here is the latest 15 day Atmospheric Angular Momentum forecast to add to the support…

This is a continuation from Victor Gensini’s research into tornado frequency and the GWO.

I will also be performing a case study search for major storms based on this to continue our organic forecasting method.

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Weather Prediction Center Day 7 Scores

One of the patterns that I utilize while looking at the WPC day 7 maps is the ability to determine when the model and WPC scores will crash.

Some history…

WPC Day 7

On multiple occasions this winter in the Accuweather forums I have been able to discern the Day 7 maps verification by using a simple pattern recognition looking at the above chart. Depending on where we are in the pattern I will tell the members of the forum how close it will be to verifying.

Here I am telling everyone to remember my rule in the February 15th-17th storm thread. Later that same day, I posted the forecast vs reality in the February 24th-26th thread as to what happened for the January 23rd storm.

Finally, the next day I posted this regarding my thoughts on the storm track.

Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the “big storms come NW”, look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka…in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.

Below are the forecast vs obs for the 2/23/16 – 2/24/16 storm…

Day 7 forecast for 2/24/16

Day 7 forecast for 2/25/16

Actual OBS for 2/24/16

Actual OBS for 2/25/16

As you can see, it was even farther NW that what I was envisioning. One can even make the argument that if we went by the “triple point“, I was even closer than that.

During the same time that I made my call of the storm being more NW than what the WPC was showing, various outlets were calling for a coastal.

Joe Bastardi on February 18th was supporting the Euro packages for obvious reasons…

PARALLEL, CONTROL, ENSEMBLE MORE LIKE IT

Just in case someone goes and tells JB that I quoted him…just make sure that you give him my name and the nickname he gave me back in 2012…Missouri Mauler. Take a listen on July 29th, 2012 around the 45:00 minute mark.

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AMS Recording Is Online!

Hey everyone!

AMS2016

 

The recording of my presentation shown above is available here.  It shows the power point presentation while adding my voice.  Can you tell I was nervous?

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