Monthly Archives: October 2013

A “Nugget” Find

On the Accuweather.com forums, a few friends of mine have a “catch phrase” that we use when one of us stumbles upon some very important information relavant to the subject at hand.  “That was an AWESOME nugget!”  Meaning…a gold nugget.

Well…I stumbled across that tonight!  I am a member of the COMET/MetEd Facebook Group and one of their members posted this article…

NEW RESEARCH MAY ENABLE LONGER-TERM FORECASTS OF U.S. HEAT WAVES

October 27, 2013

BOULDER—Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance.

The new research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), could potentially enable probability forecasts of U.S. heat waves 15-20 days out, giving society more time to prepare for these often-deadly events.

The timing of this article couldn’t be better ladies and gentlemen!  Imagine, I am in the process of having a long range forecasting technique where I’ve been able to forecast upper air patterns over the Eastern USA 19-21 days in advance by looking at the current state of the atmosphere over the Bering Sea.  If the modeling of our two major weather models, the GFS and European, are in sync with each other…that number can increase to 29-31 days in advance!

Are there flaws in my method?  Of course!

For instance, I cannot nail the exact day that a cold front or high pressure will move into the region because of the model variability.  However, if I merely looked at the current 500mb OBS, that becomes a non-issue.

Another “flaw” that I am trying to mitigate is the inability of not being able to place the true axis of said trough or ridge as it pertains to the Eastern United States.  However, that “is a work in progress” as I have started to see basic pattern recognition that correlates to which region of the Bering Sea matches the Entire USA!  Yes…you read that correctly…the Entire USA!

The final flaw that I’m running into, which seems to be the most glaring one for general weather enthusiast, is the inability to correlate the SLP (Surface Low Pressure) of a system in the Bering Sea to what happens in the Eastern USA 2.5-3 weeks later.  I always come back with how I’m not worried about nailing the SLP because I’m more worried about telling people the general pattern right now.

Enjoy the ride everyone and I will leave you with the last two sentences of the article…

“There may be sources of predictability that we are not yet aware of,” she says. “This brings us hope that the likelihood of extreme weather events that are damaging to society can be predicted further in advance.”

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October Verification

October Verification…

September 24th LR Discussion
“We are still on track with the early October warm up and cold period to follow in the late 2nd week time lines. Those were first mentioned on the 16th and verified with the typhoon rule. The Bering Sea Rule is still showing a volatile pattern this October with periods of warm and periods of cold to follow. Looking at warmth between the 13th and 16th with a whooper of a storm between the 17th and the 20th. The track of said storm isn’t set in stone, but the colder period is a given.”

September 30th LR Discussion
“This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening period. A tropical system will hit the coast of SW Japan and the Korean peninsula on the 5th and 6th of October which translates to warmth between the 11th-16th of October. This was first discussed on the 25th of September utilizing the Bering Sea Rule and verified with the typhoon rule. There is a trough in East Asia showing up on the 8th and 9th, which translates to a trough in the Eastern US between the 16th-19th of October.

The Bering Sea is still showing warmth on the 3rd and 4th of October, which will translate to warmth for Central Missouri between the 20th-25th. A persistent trough sets up from the 5th-10th, which will translate to a cold end to the month between the 22nd-31st.”

October 7th LR Discussion
“Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area. The tropical system that we talked about last week was delayed from development by a couple of days, and as such…the result is a delay with the rest of the forecast. We still have a sizeable trough over East Asia showing up from the 9th-12th which translates to a trough over our area between the 15th and 22nd with a quick ridging to follow. Then, a more sizeable trough follows immediately which translates to the cooler period between the 20th and 26th. Zonal flow then sets up which means the warm up will be slow afterwards.

In the Bering Sea, a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th which continues to show a cool end to the month and into November before a quick ridge shows up mid-month of October. This will translate to ridging in the middle of the first week of November.

October

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28OCT31 Long Range Forecast

Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area. There are 4 different systems that will be influencing Japan between the 29th of October into November 7th. This lines up with our Bering Sea discussions given over the past 2 weeks as to a prolonged period of cooler temperatures between the 7th of November to the 17th.

The Bering Sea has a strong system coming from the SW at roughly 968mb on the 2nd and will hang around before dissipating on the 4th. We might have to push the warm up mid-late November back a couple of days if this comes to pass. Another system from the SW pumps up the ridge for a quick warm response starting on the 22nd into the 25th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

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Verification

My call back on October 7th…

“In the Bering Sea, a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th which continues to show a cool end to the month and into November before a quick ridge shows up mid-month of October. This will translate to ridging in the middle of the first week of November.”

October 14th…

“The ridge that I talked about last week continues to be shortened in the time period of influence and as such, won’t impact the cooler departures that much. Looking at the cold period to last from November 7th through the 14th.”

From the great mind of Larry Cosgrove

“The milder trend across the Great Plains and Eastern Seaboard around November 5 – 7 would likely be erased by a Colorado/Trinidad “A” cyclone (S CO into the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. If so, some meaningful snows may follow cold rain along parts of the Interstate 80 and 90 corridors November 8 – 9.”

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Mizzou Colaboration

As I sit here in the production room of KOPN I can’t help but think how much my life has changed in the past 6 months. For 13 years, my “job” has been focused on the computer industry, while the weather became a “hobby”. Things happen for a reason, but it makes you wonder if those should have been switched that many years ago. In the past 4 months alone, I have been on cloud nine with volunteering at KOPN to record the weather forecast and in the past month, have been taking studio classes at Columbia Access Television to forecast weather for their station.

I had my second meeting with Dr. Lupo, department chair, of the University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He is going to approach his long range forecasting students and create a research project based on my ‘Bering Sea Rule’ that I have used for 2 years to forecast at least 19-21 days in advance. More information as I receive it!

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Bering Sea Rule

Hello everyone!

While going through the morning model runs I have noticed the mean trough is still a major player in the Bering Sea for the next 6 days which still lines up with how the mid-November period has been forecasted.  Both models have a strong system forecasted to impact Far East Russia in the long term which pumps up a ridge in the Bering Sea.  This will translate to a warming period the 3rd week of November for now.

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