Monthly Archives: November 2013

25NOV13 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  There are 4 different systems that will be influencing Japan between today and December 4th.  These will produce well below normal temperatures easily going into the second week of December.  Around the 10th-11th we will see another system develop and push a warm surge before the cold front pushes through with below normal temperatures.

 

The Bering Sea still has a volatile pattern showing up with a major trough being shown in Sea of Oktosh/Kamchatuka Peninsula and another Aleutian Low creating ridging in the Bering Sea due to it being squeezed between the two Upper Level Lows.  The system in the Sea of Oktosh will consistently throw systems into the Bering Sea along the northern edge of the ridge, which will reflect on precipitation chances for us.  These systems will continue the volatile pattern with sharp cold shots followed by quick warm ups.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

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Early December Warm Up

My thoughts on 04NOV13…

The Bering Sea has a strong system around the 5th that pumps up the ridge and another on the 10th.  This still lines up with our late month warm up before the 10th trough plows through for late month cold blast and then another ridge quick to follow for the warm up in early December.

What the 12Z 22NOV13 European was showing…

22NOV13_Euro_240_850

 

What today’s 12Z 23NOV13 GFS is showing…

23NOV13_GFS

 

Our normal temperatures in late November and Early December…

November_Normals

 

December_Normals

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Model 7, 8, and 10 Day Verification Rates

Day7_Verification

Ladies and gentlemen,

Above you see the HPC Day 7 SLP Verification rates for the major models and the HPC Medium Range Desk themselves.  As you can see, there is no wonder why Josh and I have looked into “organic forecasting”.  The 8 and 10 day are even worse as found on the EMC website.

Below  you will find the verification rates of the GFS, European, NCMRWF, and lastly…CFS.  Just imagine if the Bering Sea Rule and LRC research can come up with a mathematical equation that will be inserted into the models?  These numbers would at least double since they would have a better feel of the pattern at hand.

Day 8

PNA Region

Day8_PNA

Day 10

PNA Region

Day10_PNA

 

 

 

 

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20NOV13 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  There are 3 different systems that will be influencing Japan between today and November 24th.  The 4th system around the 24th will push a ridge over Japan for two days until a major cold push happens.  This cold push will be happening roughly around the 4th of December and last almost a week of well below normal temperatures. As discussed last week, Thanksgiving is also going to be below normal with temperatures with a quick warm surge just prior to the cold push on the 4th.

 

The Bering Sea still has an interesting pattern showing up with a major trough being shown in Eastern Manchuria pushing ridging into the Sea of Oktosh/Kamchatuka Peninsula and another Aleutian Low creating a trough over the Bering Sea until the 28th of November.  The system in Eastern Manchuria will consistently throw systems just South of the Aleutian Islands, which will reflect on precipitation chances for us.  I believe this will be reflecting a ridging over the West and a trough over the Mississippi Valley towards the East Coast between the 11th through the 18th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Early November Verifications

Hello everyone,

It’s your daily dose of verifications today.  The first verification is for the period from 01NOV13-06NOV13. Please reference my 07OCT13 audio here.

In the Bering Sea, a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th which continues to show a cool end to the month and into November before a quick ridge shows up mid-month of October. This will translate to ridging in the middle of the first week of November.

01NOV13_06NOV13

The second verification is for the period of 07NOV13-14NOV13. You can reference that 14OCT13 Long Range Forecast here.

08NOV13_14NOV13

 

I will be updating this post with 11NOV13-14NOV13 based on my 956mb low in the Bering Sea from 21OCT13 once the ESRL site gives the 14th as an end date.

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