Monthly Archives: December 2013

30DEC13 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  The two systems that I talked about in the Bering Sea section on the 16th are showing up in the typhoon rule and on the same timeline.  The 8th storm will be the stronger one while the 12th won’t have the moxie.  Something of note is that I am seeing ridging before another storm roughly around the 18th.  This one will be the strongest of the three.

The Bering Sea is showing a Southern slider on the 1st and 2nd which translates to the 21st and 22nd.  Right behind said slider is a strong system that will impact the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes.  It will be pumping warm air out ahead of it with plenty of moisture.  This system will create an elongated trough through the end of the month with multiple systems branching off the main low in the Western Bering Sea.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

From the WPC Alaska Long Range desk


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 PM EST MON DEC 30 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014 - 12Z TUE JAN 07 2014

TO BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ON FRIDAY MORNING...AN AMPLIFIED
HIGH-LATITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG KAMCHATKA LOW
ANCHORING EASTERN RUSSIA WHILE BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WOULD BE
FEATURED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS TROF/RIDGE
INTERFACE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN AK ON FRIDAY EVENTUALLY
BEGINS TO SHEAR WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND OFF THE GENERAL MAP AREA. WITH REGARD TO THIS LATTER
FEATURE...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THE WEAKER DIRECTION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN AK WITH THE 06Z GFS AND ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS BEING THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS. AS
TIME PROCEEDS FORWARD...THE 00Z CMC WAS NOT CONSIDERED IN THE MIX
AS IT LIFTS A STRONG SURFACE LOW FROM 40N/160W NORTHWARD TO A
POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY 04/1200Z. THIS IDEA DOES
NOT HAVE ANY SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS NOR ANY OF THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
FOCUSING MORE ON THE STRONG TROF/RIDGE INTERFACE ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND TOWARD THE BERING SEA...THE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS QUITE REASONABLE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE PERIOD. ALL AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE A SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. WAS ABLE TO AVOID PLACING ANY ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO THE MODEL BLEND THROUGH DAY 5.5/SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINING FEW DAYS...GROWING UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROF AND ITS MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES FROM EASTERN RUSSIA LEAD TO A MORE COMPLEX FORECAST. THE STABILITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL BE LEANED ON...PARTICULARLY FOR DAYS 7/8 WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

Winter Storm Warning

Ice_Forecast

 

The National Weather Service upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning until 6am Sunday morning.  If you don’t have to get out today, please stay home.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ILZ095>097-MOZ027-034>036-041-042-047-048-050-051-212200-
/O.CON.KLSX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-131222T1200Z/
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-BROWN IL-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE IL-PIKE MO-
RALLS MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...HANNIBAL...
JEFFERSON CITY...MEXICO...QUINCY
400 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
  THE FREEZING RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH TWO
  TENTHS TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS TO BECOME
  SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED
  ROADWAYS. SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SLEET AND/OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.


Ice

Winter Storm Watch Issued

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joseph Renken of KOPN weather bringing you a winter storm update from the National Weather Service.  The majority of KOPN listening area is under a winter storm watch from this evening until early Sunday Morning for freezing rain and snow.  The freezing rain will switch to snow Saturday evening with accumulations of a third of an inch of ice and roughly an inch of snow on top of the ice.  This will create hazardous conditions for those traveling for the holiday.

 

Keep in mind that this is a fluid situation and the forecast can change with new data that comes in.  KOPN Weather will keep you updated as to the status of watches or warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service be careful out there.

day2_pice_gt_25

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

MOZ041-042-047-048-050-051-202230-
/O.NEW.KLSX.WS.A.0006.131221T0000Z-131222T1200Z/
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY...MEXICO
419 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
  EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED ALONG
  WITH AN INCH OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS TO BECOME
  SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED
  ROADWAYS. SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ADVANCED NOTICE THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...IT DOES NOT MEAN IT IS A
CERTAINTY. THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING IN CASE
THE STORM DOES MATERIALIZE. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANNED...YOU MAY
WANT TO ADJUST YOUR TRAVEL TIME TO AVOID THE STORM. ALSO...YOU
SHOULD USE THIS ADVANCED NOTICE TO MAKE CERTAIN YOUR VEHICLE IS
WINTERIZED. MAKE PREPARATIONS AT HOME BY STOCKING EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES...SUCH AS FOOD...MEDICINE...AND EXTRA HEATING FUEL...
JUST IN CASE THE STORM MAKES TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE LIVING IN RURAL AREAS.


Weekend Winter Weather

Winter_Weather_Update

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joseph Renken from KOPN Weather bringing you a Winter Storm Update.  The National Weather Service in St. Louis, Missouri is watching the potential for a significant winter storm to start Thursday and continue into the weekend on Sunday.  There will be a mixed bag of precipitation as I have voiced to you when the storm gets going due to warm air 4800 feet above the earth.  This will create a situation of cold rain and freezing rain on and off between Thursday and Saturday night.  On Saturday night, it will switch over to all snow with some significant accumulations possible.  This forecast will be better tuned in tomorrow as the system comes onshore in Southern California and KOPN will keep you updated on any changes.  Know the difference between a winter storm watch and a winter storm warning.  As always, be weather aware!

 

December 2nd, 2013 Long Range Discussion

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  We continue to see multiple systems push through Japan with below normal temperatures going strong for the next week.  The final system on the 9th and 10th will be the main storm and one to watch roughly around the 17th.  Something of note, I am noticing height rises behind the system in China and Mongolia to compensate.  Warmer weather will follow once it leaves if that is the case.  The system diving into Mongolia which helps create said ridge will provide a prospect for a storm in time for Christmas.

The Bering Sea is showing ridging will continue the main theme with storms over Kamchatka Peninsula pumping up the ridge in the Bering Sea.  There is a system that is forecasted in the Western Bering Sea on the 5th which will translate into a storm in time for Christmas.  High pressure will then take hold once again and a slow moderation trend will follow.

15DEC13 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  We are seeing a major storm still right before the holiday with another upper level low that rotates behind it.  This will translate to below normal temperatures a few days after Christmas before zonal flow returns to moderate the temps.  Another system coming from Mongolia will pump a ridge just in time for New Years with the storm to follow to start the new year.

The Bering Sea is showing a few Southern Sliders roughly around the 18th and 23rd which translates to storms around the 8th and 12th.  These storms will keep our area in the below normal temperatures for the time being.  However, I am seeing hints of zonal flow and ridging after that which will translate to a moderation then warm up.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

January 8th Storm

Hello ladies and gentlemen,

 

While researching other aspects of the Lezak Recurring Cycle, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rules, I found this little ‘nugget’.

 

Attached you will find me looking at the LRC Calendar, provided by Josh Herman, in the background while having another widow showing Columbia, MO November NWS station data.

Jan_8th_Storm

 

My long range discussion from 10DEC13.

 

The Bering Sea is showing a Southern Slider roughly around the 11th which translates to a storm around New Years Eve.  An omega ridge develops and then transforms into a rex block.  This block will force mild pacific air into the Eastern US at the beginning of January until another system comes from the South around the 8th.

GFS_Omega_Block

 

I come back to my ‘JDism’…

The long range of the models almost always proves to be too fast.  It gets a hint of the pattern to come, but gets too excited and hurries it.