Monthly Archives: January 2014

CPC Day 3-7 Hazards

Ladies and gentlemen,

 

As you can see in the Climate Prediction Center’s Day 3-7 Hazards, the KOPN listening area is on the fringe of ice and heavy snow for the Monday night through Wednesday period.  Please stay tuned to the NWS, local weather outlets, and KOPNFM Weather for the latest updates because the slightest movement of the system will impact our weather greatly!

 

d3_7_hazards

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Winter Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the KOPN listening area.

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
433 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

MOZ041-047>051-059-312245-
/O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0004.140131T1200Z-140202T0000Z/
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-GASCONADE MO-MONITEAU MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY
433 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING
  DRIZZLE...IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST WINTER
  PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
  RAIN...WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. TONIGHT AND
  SATURDAY...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN
  INCH...WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
  MORNING DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE UNTREATED
  ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS TO BECOME VERY SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH AS SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RAIN. IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING
LOTS ICY AND DANGEROUS. IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ICE
BEGINS TO FORM...SO DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD.

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Early February NAEFS

Hey everyone,

 

Here is my January 7th long range discussion with my early February call…

 

The Bering Sea is still showing an elongated trough well up until the 17th when a major storm hits the Aleutian Island chain from the South as it curves into the Bering Sea.  This trough will keep the beginning of February in the below normal status.  This also correlates well with the Rosby wave that visited us in the beginning of December immediately following the above normal temps in late November.

 

This morning’s NAEFS 8-14 Day Forecast which goes to February 14th…

NAEFS_Early_Feb

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28JAN14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is still showing at least 4 systems that will impact our weather between the 5th and 11th February.  The strongest of the systems will hit on the 11th of February.  Due to the multiple systems, look for the first half of the month to be below normal with slight warm ups prior to the storms.  The position of the polar vortex will be crucial for the 30th January and 5th of February in East Asia as it will funnel cold air once again into early February around the 8th and 11th in the KOPN listening area.

In the Bering Sea region we have multiple systems that rotate around the polar vortex located in the Sea of Oktosh that pump up the heights in the Bering Sea.  This will keep us in the warm sector with quick shots of cold until the end of February.  Even though we receive the quick shots of cold, the 2nd half of February will end above normal in temperatures.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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A Long Range Comparison

Hello everyone,

 

Here you will find the audio and write up from 25NOV13 and 20JAN14 to compare.  Take a listen to the similarities and how this is used by myself to latch onto the pattern at hand.

25NOV13

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  There are 4 different systems that will be influencing Japan between today and December 4th.  These will produce well below normal temperatures easily going into the second week of December.  Around the 10th-11th we will see another system develop and push a warm surge before the cold front pushes through with below normal temperatures.

 

The Bering Sea still has a volatile pattern showing up with a major trough being shown in Sea of Oktosh/Kamchatuka Peninsula and another Aleutian Low creating ridging in the Bering Sea due to it being squeezed between the two Upper Level Lows.  The system in the Sea of Oktosh will consistently throw systems into the Bering Sea along the northern edge of the ridge, which will reflect on precipitation chances for us.  These systems will continue the volatile pattern with sharp cold shots followed by quick warm ups.

20JAN14

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is still showing at least 4 systems that will impact our weather between the 20th and 28th.  There are two systems that will be the strongest of the bunch and they are in the 26th and 28th time periods.  Due to the multiple systems, look for the last 10 days of the month to be below normal with slight warm ups prior to the storms.  The position of the polar vortex will be crucial for the 26th and 28th as it will funnel cold air once again into early February around the 2nd and 4th.

Not in audio…(So…the question to ask is will the polar vortex drop South past the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands or will it stay as currently depicted just to the NW.)

In the Bering Sea region we have multiple “sub-Aleutian” lows that traverse just South of the Islands.  This will keep us in the mean trough until February 14th.  Ironically enough, the system in East Asia will throw storms into the Western Bering Sea or Kamchatka Peninsula.  This will pump up heights to the East and provide us with warmer temperatures in the 2nd half of February.

 

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20JAN14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is still showing at least 4 systems that will impact our weather between the 20th and 28th.  There are two systems that will be the strongest of the bunch and they are in the 26th and 28th time periods.  Due to the multiple systems, look for the last 10 days of the month to be below normal with slight warm ups prior to the storms.  The position of the polar vortex will be crucial for the 26th and 28th as it will funnel cold air once again into early February around the 2nd and 4th.

Not in audio…(So…the question to ask is will the polar vortex drop South past the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands or will it stay as currently depicted just to the NW.)

In the Bering Sea region we have multiple “sub-Aleutian” lows that traverse just South of the Islands.  This will keep us in the mean trough until February 14th.  Ironically enough, the system in East Asia will throw storms into the Western Bering Sea or Kamchatka Peninsula.  This will pump up heights to the East and provide us with warmer temperatures in the 2nd half of February.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Pacific Wave Train

As I stated on the Accuweather.com forums LRC Thread, don’t expect the models to have a good handle on the Pacific wave train that is on the way.

Below is the 500mb 48hr forecast chart from the OPC arm of NOAA. You have a deep 493dm low in the Bering Sea with no fewer than 5 shortwaves to it’s South in virtual no-man’s land.

OPC_48hr_16JAN14

 

On a side note…here is the same zone back on 23NOV13…56 days earlier.  Note the similarities?

23NOV13_OPC_500MB

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More Support

Hello everyone,

 

Below is some more support regarding a very cold shot around the 7th and 10th of February.  You can see two images…the first is the 8-10 Day means from the 16JAN13 00Z run provided by PSU eWall.

 

16JAN13_810day_00z

I have circled a very impressive trough associated with a Rossby Wave we have been experiencing on occasion.  This trough in Central Russia will migrate into East Asia roughly around the 29th-31st.  The typhoon rule dictates that within 6-10 days of a system over East Asia, it will impact the CONUS.  Also note the arrow pointing out a ridge placement at that time.  This matches my call about surges of warmth in between and my old saying…

When there is a warm up in the winter, look out for what’s behind it!

 

Below the the long range of the 00z 16JAN14 GFS East Asia view.  As you can see, there is the monster trough.  It correlates with my call this week of a very below normal period between the 7th and 10th of February.

16JAN13_GFS_East_Asia_LR

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13JAN14 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is showing at least 4 systems that will impact our weather between the 18th and 28th.  There are two systems that will be the strongest of the bunch and they are in the 26th and 28th time periods.  Due to the multiple systems, look for the last 10 days of the month to be below normal.

Two days ago I posted a blog entry explaining the implications of a strong low pressure in the Bering Sea showing up roughly between January 18th and 21st. At the same time, the dreaded “polar vortex” that was the talk of early last week splits.  Some of the energy travels down into the Lower 48 on January 18th while some energy travels into the Bering Sea.  Look for very cold conditions between February 7th and 12th that could rival our departures around the 6th of this month.  Good news on the horizon as ridging starts to show up and we will be looking at warming mid-month.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

17_21_Alaska_500mb

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