Monthly Archives: February 2014

Latest St. Louis Snowfall Forecast

Hey everyone,

 

Here is the latest update from the NWS St. Louis office…

StLouis_Snowfall_Forecast

 

Also…a little tidbit that they write for us weather enthusiast and meteorologist.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
Winter storm watches have been issued and now the challenge will be refining the ptypes and amounts. Oh yeah, there could be some thunder during this event as well.

 

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Winter Storm Watch

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...

ILZ058>060-064-065-098>100-MOZ036-041-042-047>052-059>064-282200-
/O.NEW.KLSX.WS.A.0003.140302T0000Z-140303T1200Z/
AUDRAIN MO-BOND IL-BOONE MO-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-
FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
LINCOLN MO-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY IL-
MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...
EDWARDSVILLE...JEFFERSON CITY...LITCHFIELD...MEXICO...
ST CHARLES...ST LOUIS...UNION...VANDALIA
356 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...WINTRY MIX TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO
  ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8
  INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE
  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
  ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERN
  ILLINOIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ADVANCED NOTICE THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...IT DOES NOT MEAN IT IS A
CERTAINTY. THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING IN CASE
THE STORM DOES MATERIALIZE. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANNED...YOU MAY
WANT TO ADJUST YOUR TRAVEL TIME TO AVOID THE STORM. ALSO...YOU
SHOULD USE THIS ADVANCED NOTICE TO MAKE CERTAIN YOUR VEHICLE IS
WINTERIZED. MAKE PREPARATIONS AT HOME BY STOCKING EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES...SUCH AS FOOD...MEDICINE...AND EXTRA HEATING FUEL...
JUST IN CASE THE STORM MAKES TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE LIVING IN RURAL AREAS.

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Severe Weather Talk Amongst Record Cold

Yes…you saw that right.  I’m going to bring up severe weather while we deal with this record breaking cold snap at the beginning of March.  Why not…the local NWS offices are dedicating the first full week of March to Severe Weather.

Now some background…

17FEB14 Discussion

In the Bering Sea region we have a persistent trough that will give us below normal temperatures well into the middle of the month until the next major system comes through.  This Rossby Wave is the return of the November 17th severe weather outbreak to our East.  Needless to say I am concerned due to springtime dynamics being added to the mix.  After this system leaves, another upper level low 18,000 feet in the atmosphere sets up and continues our below normal pattern.  Good news on the horizon as I see ridging in the Sea of Oktosh.

26FEB14 Discussion

My severe weather thoughts on the last storm will be in the TN/OH Valley.

27FEB14 PSD Map

spag_f360_usbg

 

A few storm chasing friends of mine are familiar with me telling them roughly 2 months ago that I was concerned about the time period of March 12th for the return of the November 17th #ISO/#Rossbywave.

 

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26FEB14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is showing a volatile weather pattern in the next 10 days.  We have no fewer than 3 systems that will be impacting Japan.  Look for stormy conditions on March  3rd and 4th, 8th and 9th, and then the 11th and 12th.  In between these systems we will have quick cold shots with moderation following.  My severe weather thoughts on the last storm will be in the TN/OH Valley.

The Bering Sea is showing a mixed bag of what’s going to happen.  We first see the ridge that was over Alaska retrograde over the Bering Sea for a few days.  This happens on the 4th and 5th of March, so look for a quick warm up roughly around March 24th and 25th.  However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aleutian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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The Trend Is Your Friend

Yesterday I took a screenshot of the ESRL 4 Panels and drew some arrows signifying the trend of the teleconnections.

esrl_4panel_22FEB14

 

Here is today’s…

23FEB14_4panel

Not the volatility with them.  Whenever you have that type of volatility you will see storms at the apex of said volatility.  The key though is at the end of the graphs.  You have a highly -PNA, +NAO, and neutral WPO/EPO combinations.  This will produce the warmup that I have predicted and also creates the situation where severe weather ~12MAR14 is becoming more likely.

February 17th Long Range Discussion

In the Bering Sea region we have a persistent trough that will give us below normal temperatures well into the middle of the month until the next major system comes through.  This Rossby Wave is the return of the November 17th severe weather outbreak to our East.

 

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January Verification

Hello everyone,

 

I am sorry that it has taken so long to post my January verification post.  Soo…without further adieu…

Here are the stats for January to reference the long range correlations…

January_History

 

December 10th Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a Southern Slider roughly around the 11th which translates to a storm around New Years Eve.  An omega ridge develops and then transforms into a rex block.  This block will force mild pacific air into the Eastern US at the beginning of January until another system comes from the South around the 8th.

I was a few days off on the storm ~31DEC13 as it actually came through on the night of 01JAN14-02JAN14.

02JAN14_Surface

 

December 15th Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a few Southern Sliders roughly around the 18th and 23rd which translates to storms around the 8th and 12th.  These storms will keep our area in the below normal temperatures for the time being.  However, I am seeing hints of zonal flow and ridging after that which will translate to a moderation then warm up.

The easiest way to describe this is I messed up.  It is obvious, per the picture of the January history above, that the southern sliders weren’t the correct call.  Instead, we had a clipper followed by a ‘Great Lakes Cutter’, and warm to boot. #sigh

December 30th Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a Southern slider on the 1st and 2nd which translates to the 21st and 22nd.  Right behind said slider is a strong system that will impact the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes.  It will be pumping warm air out ahead of it with plenty of moisture.  This system will create an elongated trough through the end of the month with multiple systems branching off the main low in the Western Bering Sea.

Per the January history, I got my head back in the game and saw what I needed to see.  The first storm did come through on the 22nd, then a warm up that lasted 3 days before the next storm on the 26th and 27th.

 

Overall…I give myself a ‘D’ for January due to the huge mistakes I made in the period between the 8th and the 20th.  Thank goodness I got my head back in the game for late January into February!  Here’s to continuing the streak!

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The Columbia Missourian

Missourian

Hello everyone,

 

I was looking through my page stats and noticed quite a few referrals from The Columbia Missourian article about my forecasting method, the Bering Sea Rule.  Feel free to take a look around and if you have any questions, you can leave a message for me at KOPN’s office.  From there I will get in touch with you if needed.

KOPN Radio
915 E Broadway
Columbia, MO 65201
(573) 874-1139

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Correcting Misinformation

Hello everyone,

 

It has come to my attention that there is a source out there which claims that I “created” the typhoon rule.  This is a blatant false comment!  Per my sticky post here

As for the Typhoon Rule…this rule has been around for decades.
Naval Post Graduate School Monterey

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather.

 

So…I am making my stand here to make sure that if you were referred to my page from ‘The Weather Centre’, please take note that what was said is incorrect!

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17FEB14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.  East Asia is showing a resilient trough of low pressure all the way to the end of February.  This translates into below normal temperatures at least until the 6th of March.  Quasi-zonal flow then sets up for a warming trend.

In the Bering Sea region we have a persistent trough that will give us below normal temperatures well into the middle of the month until the next major system comes through.  This Rossby Wave is the return of the November 17th severe weather outbreak to our East.  Needless to say I am concerned due to springtime dynamics being added to the mix.  After this system leaves, another upper level low 18,000 feet in the atmosphere sets up and continues our below normal pattern.  Good news on the horizon as I see ridging in the Sea of Oktosh.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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