There are so many ways that I can really start with this.
- It has been a winter of “surprises”.
- You have to remember that, with weather, “It’s a Marriage of Sorts!”
- Absolutely nobody nailed this winter…no matter how much chest beating they do!
- Old school pattern recognition techniques have performed better than using analogs due to the objectivity of the pattern recognition techniques versus the hype of certain analogs.
- It has been a impressive year for the Intraseasonal Oscillation/Rossby Wave method, in concert, with the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules!
- To follow up with #5, the Bering Sea Rule is being researched by a team consisting of the Chair of the University of Missouri Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences program, Dr. Anthony Lupo; a current junior transfer student at Mizzou, Travis Bradshaw; a graduate of Western Illinois University Meteorology Program, Daniel Parker; the “data mine” friend of mine in Oshkosh, WI, Joshua Herman…last, but not least…myself, Joseph Renken.
Now…onto my “spin” of how this winter was. The common thought of what we need for a cold and snowy winter is a -NAO, +PNA, and -AO. What I will do is provide data that debunks that misconception and show that the pattern is dictated by more than the obvious.
So…let’s look at the tellies for this winter.
As you can see, the NAO was predominately positive during this past winter. Ok…let’s check the other two indicies.
Looking at this graph, you would think a “typical” winter was the case. Up and down gives the ellusion that we had a period in mid-December with below normal temps, all of January was a signal for above normal temperatures, and the for the most part of February we saw below normal temperatures.
So what about the AO?
Below you can see two composites of what a negative and positive AO has on our temperatures.
Negative AO vs Positive AO
We can deliniate how all of December was showing an above normal signal, all of January was showing a below normal signal, February was neutral, and March is above normal so far.
Our tally of the indicies by month…
NAO: Positive except neutral in mid-December
PNA: Negative in beginning and positive for the rest of month
PNA: Negative except neutral positive around the 17th.
AO: Negative except neutral around the 12th
PNA: Neutral until the 12th, then switches to positive
AO: Neutral positive
Here are the results of our meteorological winter from December 1st, 2013 until February 28th, 2014…
You can thank the EPO…
and the WPO for helping when the tellies weren’t very impressive for cold…