Monthly Archives: March 2014

A Welcomed Sight To Farmers and Firemen Alike!

7_Day_qpf

 

The above graphic is the Weather Prediction Center’s representation of how much precipitation we will get in the next 7 days.  The Intraseasonal Oscillation/Rossby Wave, Bering Sea Rule, & typhoon rule, better known to my followers as the #trifecta, wins again!

Here is the National Weather Service St. Louis latest weather story.

LSX_WeatherStory

Farmers and Firemen are going to be happy for obvious reasons.  Central Missouri is currently in a D1-Moderate Drought status.  Various brush and grass fires have been started all over for the past couple of weeks and this rain will give our firemen a welcomed break.

Midwest_Drought

Bering Sea Rule…

03MAR14 Discussion

It also matches the Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal oscillation from the beginning of February. Wet and cooler than normal for the Eastern US to start April….yay.  Sorry…my sarcastic side came out.

Typhoon Rule…

18MAR14 Discussion

The storms just don’t stop hitting Japan folks and that translates to storms for our neck of the woods.  A decently sized storm is hitting Japan on the 20th of March and that will be the catalyst for cold air to follow around March 26th for Central MO.  The warm air will try to battle back, but there will be a continued onslaught of cold fronts over Japan until the 27th of March which takes us into early April here.

(847)

March 29th Forecast

29MAR14_Forecast

 

 

Hello everyone!

 

Above you see the NWS St. Louis 7 day forecast for Columbia, MO.  The normal highs for late March and early April are in the lower 60’s and lows in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.  The average high for the 7 day period above is 63° and the average low is 42°.  This 7 day average is a little deceiving.  You see, with the cloud deck at night you can expect a “thermal blanket” which keeps the heat locked in.  If there is more sun during the day I can see those highs verifying.  If the cloud deck stays most of the day, look for the high temperatures to trend lower.

 

My long range forecast…

First…the Bering Sea Rule

26FEB14

However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aleutian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month.

03MAR14

It also matches the Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal oscillation from the beginning of February. Wet and cooler than normal for the Eastern US to start April….yay.  Sorry…my sarcastic side came out.

 

Typhoon Rule

10MAR14

Japan is still showing a volatile pattern.  They will experience storms on March 12th/13th, 16th/17th, & 19th/20th.  These will translate to storms for us on the 18th/19th, 22nd/23rd, & 25th/26th.  Right before the storms come through, we will experience a nice warm up with a sharp cold shot right after the storm.  The typhoon rule is also showing a trough over Japan in the long range.  This verifies the Bering Sea Rule call of a cold end to March and cold start to April.

 

18MAR14

The storms just don’t stop hitting Japan folks and that translates to storms for our neck of the woods.  A decently sized storm is hitting Japan on the 20th of March and that will be the catalyst for cold air to follow around March 26th for Central MO.  The warm air will try to battle back, but there will be a continued onslaught of cold fronts over Japan until the 27th of March which takes us into early April here.

23MAR14…This is NOT  A Warm Signal post

 

(309)

Severe Weather Yesterday

Hello everyone,

 

Starting on 25MAR14, I gave everyone a heads up of the severe weather yesterday.

 

There were multiple reports of nickle and pea sized hail around the area.  I wasn’t at the station when the tornado watch and warnings were issued.  Not long after the first tornado warning was issued, I made my way to the station.  There were multiple friends that were texting me, requesting updates on the situation.  When I arrived to the station, the radar indicated warnings had expired and we were under sunny skies.  The common problem that us forecasters run into is that when clear skies appear the public believes they have the ‘all clear’ to continue their business.  Not this time!

The first storms were pre-frontal, ahead of the cold front.  The wunderground radar showed the severe weather associated with the cold front was still to the West.  It also had increasing VIL (Vertical Integrated Liquid), which showed larger hail.  The estimated hail size was pointed at 1.50″ and I have learned that you have to cut those numbers in half for the ACTUAL hail size. At about that time, the NWS St. Louis had issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central Boone County for large hail the size of quarters.  I went live in the studio to warn our listeners and give a timeline as to when the storm would hit Columbia.

The first batch of hail was pea sized and covered the ground.  I called into the National Weather Service to report pea sized hail and walked back into the station.  As I was walking, I heard the hail start again.  However, this time it was louder which told me that the hail had increased in size.  I looked outside to nickel sized hail at first before the hail became quarter sized.  Right away, I contacted them again and told them that the hail was getting larger and covering the ground.  So, I tweeted these two pictures to them.

Hail

 

Hail2

 

A friend of mine here at KOPN sent this photo to me…note the amount of hail in the parking lot.

photo

(760)

25MAR14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The three main long range forecasting models have decent agreement regarding the weather in Japan for the next 8 days.  This will give me the ability for pattern recognition forecasting in the Central Missouri region.  Without further adieu, Japan has a System hitting it’s West on March 27th, 30th, and April 2nd.  These dates correlate to systems for our area on April 2nd, 5th, and 8th.  The standard surge of warm prior to each system, but on March 28th and April 7th I am seeing warmth in Japan due to a ridge and that gives us above normal temperatures on April 3rd and 13th for a couple of days.

In the Bering Sea we have a continuous SW flow which transports warm air into the region.  The upper level low rotating around the Sea of Okhotsk will throw a few more Sub-Aleutian lows around the 27th of March which translates to unstable conditions until mid-April.  The block that I mentioned last week retrogrades into the Bering Sea roughly on April 1st until another system from the Kamchatka Peninsula breaks it down in a few days for more unstable conditions to end the month cold.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

(799)

A Look Back On The 2013-2014 Meteorological Winter

There are so many ways that I can really start with this.

  1. It has been a winter of “surprises”.
  2. You have to remember that, with weather, “It’s a Marriage of Sorts!”
  3. Absolutely nobody nailed this winter…no matter how much chest beating they do!
  4. Old school pattern recognition techniques have performed better than using analogs due to the objectivity of the pattern recognition techniques versus the hype of certain analogs.
  5. It has been a impressive year for the Intraseasonal Oscillation/Rossby Wave method, in concert, with the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules!
  6. To follow up with #5, the Bering Sea Rule is being researched by a team consisting of the Chair of the University of Missouri Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences program, Dr. Anthony Lupo;  a current junior transfer student at Mizzou, Travis Bradshaw; a graduate of Western Illinois University Meteorology Program, Daniel Parker; the “data mine” friend of mine in Oshkosh, WI, Joshua Herman…last, but not least…myself, Joseph Renken.

 

Now…onto my “spin” of how this winter was.  The common thought of what we need for a cold and snowy winter is a -NAO, +PNA, and -AO.  What I will do is provide data that debunks that misconception and show that the pattern is dictated by more than the obvious.

So…let’s look at the tellies for this winter.

NAO

NAO_winter1314

 

nao.compositeAs you can see, the NAO was predominately positive during this past winter.  Ok…let’s check the other two indicies.

 

PNA

pna

 

pna.compositeLooking at this graph, you would think a “typical” winter was the case.  Up and down gives the ellusion that we had a period in mid-December with below normal temps, all of January was a signal for above normal temperatures, and the for the most part of February we saw below normal temperatures.

So what about the AO?

ao.sprd2

 

Below you can see two composites of what a negative and positive AO has on our temperatures.

Negative AO vs Positive AO

b-negative-ao b-positive-ao

 

We can deliniate how all of December was showing an above normal signal, all of January was showing a below normal signal, February was neutral, and March is above normal so far.

Our tally of the indicies by month…

December:

NAO: Positive except neutral in mid-December

PNA: Negative in beginning and positive for the rest of month

AO: Positive

January:

NAO: Positive

PNA: Negative except neutral positive around the 17th.

AO: Negative except neutral around the 12th

February:

NAO: Positive

PNA: Neutral until the 12th, then switches to positive

AO: Neutral positive

 

Here are the results of our meteorological winter from December 1st, 2013 until February 28th, 2014…

compday.qruVVFeM6Z

 

You can thank the EPO…

epo

 

epo.composite

and the WPO for helping when the tellies weren’t very impressive for cold…

wpo

 

wpo.composite

 

 

(2087)

This Is NOT A Warm Signal!!

Hello everyone,

 

I am seeing various chatter on the internet social media scene regarding a warm up for early April.  Keep in mind that the normal means for this time of year will be edged up.  However, there will be a back-n-forth pattern where we see constant battles of warm and cold.  The cold will end up the victor in the grand scheme until roughly the 8th of April.

 

Support?  Well…let’s start with the Bering Sea Rule

26FEB14 Long Range Discussion

However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aleutian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month.

03MAR14 Long Range Discussion

It also matches the Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal oscillation from the beginning of February. Wet and cooler than normal for the Eastern US to start April….yay.  Sorry…my sarcastic side came out.

Here are the Typhoon Rule statements…

10MAR14 Long Range Discussion

Japan is still showing a volatile pattern.  They will experience storms on March 12th/13th, 16th/17th, & 19th/20th.  These will translate to storms for us on the 18th/19th, 22nd/23rd, & 25th/26th.  Right before the storms come through, we will experience a nice warm up with a sharp cold shot right after the storm.  The typhoon rule is also showing a trough over Japan in the long range.  This verifies the Bering Sea Rule call of a cold end to March and cold start to April.

 

18MAR14 Long Range Discussion

The storms just don’t stop hitting Japan folks and that translates to storms for our neck of the woods.  A decently sized storm is hitting Japan on the 20th of March and that will be the catalyst for cold air to follow around March 26th for Central MO.  The warm air will try to battle back, but there will be a continued onslaught of cold fronts over Japan until the 27th of March which takes us into early April here.

Here is the latest Earth System Research Laboratory 4 Panel Teleconnections of the PNA/NAO/WPO/EPO.  A +PNA translates to a cold signal more times than none, while the -NAO/WPO/EPO signals also support cold over the Eastern United States.

23MAR14_ESRL_4panel

(752)

A Hint Of What’s On My Mind

Hello everyone,

 

It is common in the weather community to hear the phrase that you need a -NAO for cold and stormy conditions in the Eastern United States. Despite that common misconception, I am seeing preliminary data that just blows your mind.  As if I have to remind you about that!

 

Well…it goes without saying that this year was an interesting one for sure!

(342)

More Verification

Hello everyone,

Here I am at KOPN looking over 500mb charts, Accuweather.com “model animator”, archived KOPN post, and the current 7 day forecast from the LSX (St. Louis) NWS office.

 

A hint of what was to come back on the 17th of February

17FEB14 Long Range Discussion

In the Bering Sea region we have a persistent trough that will give us below normal temperatures well into the middle of the month until the next major system comes through.  This Rossby Wave is the return of the November 17th severe weather outbreak to our East.  Needless to say I am concerned due to springtime dynamics being added to the mix.  After this system leaves, another upper level low 18,000 feet in the atmosphere sets up and continues our below normal pattern.  Good news on the horizon as I see ridging in the Sea of Oktosh.

 

I had performed a miscalculation on the specific date here, but I had been telling friends not long after this post that the 20th of March was my target…

26FEB14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a mixed bag of what’s going to happen.  We first see the ridge that was over Alaska retrograde over the Bering Sea for a few days.  This happens on the 4th and 5th of March, so look for a quick warm up roughly around March 24th and 25th.  However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aleutian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month.

20MAR14_Forecast

(616)

Mt. Holly NWS Chiming In

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

LONGER RANGE: WE HAVE BEEN IN A – EPO PERIOD SINCE THE END OF
FEBRUARY. A -EPO COUPLED WITH STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EPISODES FROM
LATE FEBRUARY ON HAS LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
PATTERN THIS MONTH. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE -EPO
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE
CFS V2 WEEKLIES AND THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DISCUSSED ABOVE. 
BOTH OF
THESE TOOLS SUGGEST WE WAIT A FEW MORE WEEKS FOR SUSTAINED SPRING
WEATHER. THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY AS WELL.

26FEB14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a mixed bag of what’s going to happen.  We first see the ridge that was over Alaska retrograde over the Bering Sea for a few days.  This happens on the 4th and 5th of March, so look for a quick warm up roughly around March 24th and 25th.  However, this high pressure continues to retrograde over to the East Siberia Sea of Northern Russia and, combined with a few sub-Aleutian lows, will bring the cold air back for the end of the month.

03MAR14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea becomes very volatile in this time period. The high pressure that retrograded into Siberia is now helping a “Rex-Block” style of block in the Sea of Oktosh. This will throw multiple sub-Aleutian lows and systems moving Northeast to Southwest in the Bering Sea around the Siberian High. This set up continues into mid-March, which correlates to mid-April with the Bering Sea Rule. It also matches the Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal oscillation from the beginning of February. Wet and cooler than normal for the Eastern US to start April….yay. Sorry…my sarcastic side came out.

 

Organic_Forecasting

 

(820)

18MAR14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The storms just don’t stop hitting Japan folks and that translates to storms for our neck of the woods.  A decently sized storm is hitting Japan on the 20th of March and that will be the catalyst for cold air to follow around March 26th for Central MO.  The warm air will try to battle back, but there will be a continued onslaught of cold fronts over Japan until the 27th of March which takes us into early April here.

In the Bering Sea we have a few Sub-Aleutian lows that originate from a gyre over the Kamchatka Peninsula before a potent system on March 23rd.  This system will pump South to Southwest flow into the Bering Sea for a warm up of moderately above normal temperatures showing up around the 10th of April.  The upper level low rotating around the Sea of Okhotsk will throw a few more Sub-Aleutian lows around the 27th of March which translates to unstable conditions until mid-April.  Something that I will be keeping track of is the formation of a blocking signature over the Bering Sea at the end of March or beginning of April.  This will signify our first sustainable taste of spring this season.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

(998)