Monthly Archives: April 2014

30APR14 Alaskan Long Range Discussion

Below you will find the Alaskan long range discussion that covers Days 4-8.  Note the 2nd paragraph.  I believe this trough will be focused more so in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.30APR14_AK_DISCO

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09MAY14 Severe Weather Thoughts

Hello everyone!

 

A few things regarding the severe weather that I’m expecting on the 9th of May.  First…let’s take a look at the ESRL 1000-500mb means.

Below you will see the means for the Northern Hemisphere so that I can show the typhoon rule correlation.

29APR14_ESRL_TR

On 00z 04MAY14, you can see a nice trough over Japan and this is the connection to our next screenshot.

I have marked the various member lines to dictate where the trough is set up on 00z 10MAY14, or 7pm 09MAY14.

29APR14_ESRL_MEAN

As you can see by the magenta colored lines, we have some pretty nice trough orientations there.  What I want you to focus on are the “grouping” of members on either side of us in Central MO.  There is a grouping stretching from Childress, TX to Maryville, MO.  To the East we can see a grouping of members on a Batesville, AR to Dayton, OH path.  Take the mean of the members and you get a trough over Central MO.  Just like yesterday’s severe weather outbreak, I will keep y’all updated!

 

We are still on track for a strong system to come ashore on the 6th of May, with it being ejected into the Plains/MW/OV/GL/TN/Old South a few days later.

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29APR14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Japan has a slight ridge showing up prior to a back-to-back storm pattern on the 3rd and 5th.  The May 3rd system matches my severe weather outbreak call for May 9th still, and after yesterday’s outbreak, I am trying to find the correlation to positioning in the Eastern US.  After the May 5th system exits Japan, the troughiness that has plagued us comes right back to pay a visit until hints of ridging shows up around the 10th of May.

The Bering Sea has a sheared off system at the beginning of May to the north of the Kamchatka Peninsula with ridging to immediately follow between the 5th and 8th of May.  This will provide Central Missouri with well above normal temperatures at the end of the month.  The next system comes from the SW and breaks down the 1032mb ridge and brings cooler than normal temperatures behind it…of course!

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Preparedness Is The Key!

I can’t bang the drum loud enough ladies and gentlemen!  We have a new tool to add to our forecasting arsenal and yesterday was just another notch in the belt as to why we are researching it!

31MAR14 Long Range Discussion

A mean trough dominates the Bering Sea during the first 4 days of April which shows us that the 20th through the 24th of April will be cooler than normal.  However, relief is around the corner.  The system that hits Japan on the 4th and 5th will pump up a ridge in the Bering Sea for a few days before that system over Japan makes it’s way over.  When it does make it’s way into Kamchatka Peninsula, I am concerned for severe weather on the 28th of April.  The trough returns again to give us cooler than normal departures to start the month of May!

The Intraseasonal Correlation and Rossby Wave connection…

140403_rpts

Below are the reports from 27APR14…

140427_rpts

 

Here are the filtered reports for 28APR14 so far…

28APR14_Reports

 

Below you will see the Bering Sea Rule’s next threat…

14APR14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a decent sized trough tomorrow, with beautiful ridging following on the 18th and 19th.  This translates to ridging in Central MO on May 7th and 8th.  Then, like clockwork, another trough comes behind on the 20th and 21st of April.  This leads me to believe that there will be a severe weather outbreak on May 9th.  Unlike the prior systems, we have ridging immediately set in on the 23rd of April before a sub-Aleutian low comes in with more unsettled weather for us on the 12th of May.

A tweet that I sent out two days ago…

27APR14_Tweet

 

Day 7 of the Weather Prediction Center 500mb Forecast

29APR14_06MAY14_500mb

 

More to come as it develops, even though we’ve known it would. 😉

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Clearing My Head

First thing is first, my thoughts and prayers are to those who have been impacted by the 28 tornadoes that hit today in 6 states.  I even made the mistake of watching a youtube video of someone driving down I-40 immediately after the most destructive tornado hit and you could hear the screams of adults and children alike.  Shortly after, I contacted one of the research team members because he was in Arkansas chasing the tornado which hit Conway.  Thankfully his team made it through the storm!

 

Soo…here is a somber item on my mind this evening.

 

Below are the last three model runs of the NAEFS Temperature Anomalies…

 

26APR14 12z Forecast – Valid 04MAY14-11MAY14

26APR14_NAEFS

 

27APR14 00Z Forecast – Valid 05MAY14-12MAY14

27APR14_NAEFS

 

27APR14 12Z Forecast – Valid 05MAY14-12MAY14

27APR14_00Z_NAEFS

 

Below are the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from today.

6-10 Day

610temp.new

 

8-14 Day shows improvement going from 60% to 40% chance of below normal temperatures.

814temp.new

 

 

So…it should come as no surprise that the first 11 days of May show to be below normal.  However, as I say…

Think like there is no box!

14APR14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a decent sized trough tomorrow, with beautiful ridging following on the 18th and 19th.  This translates to ridging in Central MO on May 7th and 8th.  Then, like clockwork, another trough comes behind on the 20th and 21st of April.  This leads me to believe that there will be a severe weather outbreak on May 9th.  Unlike the prior systems, we have ridging immediately set in on the 23rd of April before a sub-Aleutian low comes in with more unsettled weather for us on the 12th of May.

 

The lowering of the percentages for both the CPC, and NAEFS, shows that during the end of the period we will experience a warming trend…

22APR14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section

Japan is showing quasi-zonal flow setting up at the end of the week which translates to a slow moderation of temperatures for Central Missouri before a nice ridge sets up for us during the weekend of May 3rd and 4th. Then, it gets interesting. An upper level low sets up over the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan from the 27th of April to the 30th. This will translate to below normal temperatures during the first full week of May. Another ridge in Japan then develops on the 2nd of May before a strong system moves through on the 3rd, which matches my severe weather call of May 9th.

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Cold Air Funnels

Hello everyone!

 

In lieu of the severe weather tomorrow, along with my ‘Cold Core Setup‘ post back on the 23rd of April, I am posting an educational post about the difference between the “standard” funnel and “cold air” funnel.

Here are the meteorological terms of each from the National Weather Service Glossary…

Funnel Cloud: A condensation funnel extending from the base of a towering cumulus or Cb, associated with a rotating column of air that is not in contact with the ground (and hence different from a tornado). A condensation funnel is a tornado, not a funnel cloud, if either a) it is in contact with the ground or b) a debris cloud or dust whirl is visible beneath it.

Cold Air Funnel: A funnel cloud or (rarely) a small, relatively weak tornado that can develop from a small shower or thunderstorm when the air aloft is unusually cold (hence the name). They are much less violent than other types of tornadoes.

The St. Louis NWS office is mentioning the threat of “instability showers and thunderstorms” starting on Tuesday and going through the rest of the week.

25APR14_LSX_AFD

Don’t be surprised to see the threat of hail to continue through the week.  Each day, the size of the hail will decrease as the instability gets less.  After a wild day that is forecasted tomorrow afternoon, please be careful in the following days when calling the 911 center and reporting a funnel cloud when, in reality, it’s a cold air funnel and the risk of damage from said funnel is minimal.

 

cold_air_funnel_picture

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Cold Core 28APR14 Setup

Hello everyone,

 

I am going to show you a research paper section about a cold core set up by Jon Davies…specifically page 1060.

Cold_Core_Setup

Now, when you look at the picture on the left you see the 500mb and surface low pressure positions; along with the occluded, cold, and warm front respectfully.  Here is a picture representation of the frontal symbols.

 

Now…look at the surface positions forecasted for 12z, or 7am, 28APR14.

23APR14_Surface_28APR14

 

500mb

23APR14_500mb_28APR14

As you can see from the surface symbols link earlier, you have a triple point set up where the fronts all meet together…roughly Falls City, NE.  To the East is the warm sector, providing warm and unstable air.  Now, unlike a standard cold core setup when you have dew points lacking, the dew points are forecasted to be roughly 65°.  That’s 10°- 15° above what is standard for a cold core set up.

This is a bad setup! I am afraid that the evening of the Columbia Earth Day celebrations might be at a disadvantage. Pay attention to your locals on Sunday and Monday everyone as all modes of severe weather are possible…meaning tornadoes, large hail, and strong straight-line wind gust!  Make sure that you purchase the weather radio from Midland that I suggest.  You can get a very decent one for $32 on Walmart.com.

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It’s a “Tad” Early

Hello everyone,

 

Here is the Bering Sea Rule section of 14APR14 long range discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a decent sized trough tomorrow, with beautiful ridging following on the 18th and 19th.  This translates to ridging in Central MO on May 7th and 8th.  Then, like clockwork, another trough comes behind on the 20th and 21st of April.  This leads me to believe that there will be a severe weather outbreak on May 9th.  Unlike the prior systems, we have ridging immediately set in on the 23rd of April before a sub-Aleutian low comes in with more unsettled weather for us on the 12th of May.

 

The ESRL spaghetti plot from yesterday…it’s a “tad” bit early. 😉

22APR14_Spaghetti

 

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A Cold End To April and Beginning of May…nah. Ummm…YA!

Hello everyone,

 

Here I am at the station with 14 tabs open looking over everything and can’t help but think how well my April forecasting has verified so far.  Looking forward to next week, I am reminded via social media, that I mentioned a few things upcoming…

25MAR14 Long Range Discussion

In the Bering Sea we have a continuous SW flow which transports warm air into the region.  The upper level low rotating around the Sea of Okhotsk will throw a few more Sub-Aleutian lows around the 27th of March which translates to unstable conditions until mid-April.  The block that I mentioned last week retrogrades into the Bering Sea roughly on April 1st until another system from the Kamchatka Peninsula breaks it down in a few days for more unstable conditions to end the month cold.

 

31MAR14 Long Range Discussion

A mean trough dominates the Bering Sea during the first 4 days of April which shows us that the 20th through the 24th of April will be cooler than normal.  However, relief is around the corner.  The system that hits Japan on the 4th and 5th will pump up a ridge in the Bering Sea for a few days before that system over Japan makes it’s way over.  When it does make it’s way into Kamchatka Peninsula, I am concerned for severe weather on the 28th of April.  The trough returns again to give us cooler than normal departures to start the month of May!

 

Now…let’s look at the follow up!

 

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook to verify the 25MAR14 forecast…

23APR14_610Day

A “two-part” verification will follow below.  First, let’s look at  the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook.

23APR14_day48

As you can see, D5 and D6 has the KOPN region within the risk zones.  Day 5 is April 27th and Day 6 is April 28th!

23APR14_SPC_dates

Now…here is the CPC Day 8-14 Temperature Outlook…

23APR14_814Day

 

You wonder what the telleconnections are showing for this to be happening.

22APR14_4panel

 

As we can see, the standard thinking about how some are taught regarding the PNA and NAO should be thrown out the window.  The -NAO hits the valley of departures on April 28th and then recovers very quickly to neutral by May 2nd.  The +PNA hits the apex on April 30th and falls drastically by May 6th.

So…the common rule of thumb is that we should be warming up by the start of May!  But wait…remember what I said in the Look Back at Meteorological Winter post? The EPO and WPO helped provide the cold air when the PNA and NAO weren’t cooperating.  Something that I have always said is that when you see a transition with the tellies is that a system is moving from the West Coast to the East Coast and, depending on the orientation of the tellies, that will depend on if it’s warmth or cold that bleeds East.

The cold air builds out West as the trough establishes itself there.  As the system moves East, the NAO and PNA respond by switching their configuration.  However…the EPO and WPO also respond by going negative!

“It’s a marriage of sorts!”

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22APR14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone, This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

 

Japan is showing quasi-zonal flow setting up at the end of the week which translates to a slow moderation of temperatures for Central Missouri before a nice ridge sets up for us during the weekend of May 3rd and 4th. Then, it gets interesting. An upper level low sets up over the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan from the 27th of April to the 30th. This will translate to below normal temperatures during the first full week of May. Another ridge in Japan then develops on the 2nd of May before a strong system moves through on the 3rd, which matches my severe weather call of May 9th.

 

The Bering Sea starts off the period with a trough in place before a strong system moves over the Kamchatka Peninsula on the 27th. This will provide a significant warm up in the days prior, which correlates to May 15th and 16th in Central Missouri. A trough sets up shop in the beginning of May which means the cooler than normal spring will continue well into the 3rd week of May.

 

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

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