Monthly Archives: May 2014

27MAY14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

East Asia is showing a trough from the 27th through the 29th of May which translates to a cooler period for Central Missouri between the 2nd and 4th of June while it pushes our recent heat to the East Coast.  Immediately following, a quick ridge pops up for a limited warm up in the June 5th through the 7th time period for us.  Yet another Upper Level Low than comes into the picture and provides below normal temperatures from the 8th through the 16th of June.

KOPN Weather’s bread and butter, the Bering Sea Rule, is showing a ridge continuing for the left-center of the Bering Sea until it pushes East through the 3rd of June due to a system coming from Manchuria.  This will translate to ridging for Central Missouri from the 16th through the 23rd of June with a severe weather outbreak between June 23rd and 25th for areas between I-70 and I-40. The trough left behind will stay until June 8th, which gives us cooler weather from the 25th through the 28th of June.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

A Memorial Day Tribute

Hello everyone,

 

While walking to the station I couldn’t help but think of those who have gone before us defending our country.  No matter your stance on participation in war, these brave men and women sacrificed their lives so that you can continue to voice your Freedom of Speech in multiple ways.  There is a saying in religious spectrums that goes like this…

Hate the sin, love the sinner.

Those who are in the peace movement can apply this phrase to our veterans who have died.  Why do I say this?  It wasn’t the choice of our veterans who were drafted into controversial conflicts to participate.

 

So…I will leave you with this saying…

 

Question the lawmakers, honor the veterans.

 

Also, there were two fronts in every war or conflict!  Those who went to fight and those who stayed home to support them!!!

 

 

gccartoon45memorial2

End Of May Verification

Hello everyone,

 

Below you will see my 29APR14 Long Range Discussion

 

The Bering Sea has a sheared off system at the beginning of May to the north of the Kamchatka Peninsula with ridging to immediately follow between the 5th and 8th of May.  This will provide Central Missouri with well above normal temperatures at the end of the month. The next system comes from the SW and breaks down the 1032mb ridge and brings cooler than normal temperatures behind it…of course!

 

Here is the latest forecast for the Columbia, MO area…keep in mind that our normals start at 77° and finish at 79° to close out May for the below forecast.

End_of_May_Forecast

Now…I bolded the last section of my discussion because of the cooler weather to follow.  Josh Herman, who is a member of my research team, has provided a link on his website showing the Intraseasonal Oscillation Correlation Coefficient specific to various regions of the lower 48.  As you can see, Central MO is in region 4.  Now, let’s apply region 4 to his graphic below.

Correlation_Coefficient

Look at the correlation on 14 days!  We have a .78 correlation!!  The next correlation that fits our region is on 38 days. That is .4357!  This link provides an explanation of what he is finding.

In basic terms, he has found that the atmosphere is a standing wave harmonic to which we can find the patterns of what our atmosphere will do in the future.  The Bering Sea Rule, is an extension of this theory.

That being said, take a look at the Day 7 verification from the Weather Prediction Center arm of NOAA.

25MAY14_7day_Verification

I have highlighted both the 38 day and 14 day ISO components, along with the most current verification.  Note the similarities in the pattern?  Each time the models, and WPC for that matter, experienced a downturn in the Day 7 forecast accuracy! Not only that, but we see an uptick in accuracy before another crash.  The models don’t have a good handle on what’s going to happen in the beginning of June.

Look at what happened in April, in concert with the 38 day correlation, regarding the warm up and cool down to follow.  Not to mention the precipitation received during the warm up.

April_Stats

 

Here is the same pattern for the 14 day correlation…

May1_24_Temps

“It’s all about the pattern and picking the RIGHT pattern is what it’s all about!”

 

 

20MAY14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The beauty of my long range forecasting is how it stair-steps with verification.  You see, the Intraseasonal Oscillation is verified by the Bering Sea Rule and the Bering Sea Rule is verified by the Typhoon Rule.  That being said, let’s get started.  The typhoon rule is showing a mean trough in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic while the Plains and Midwest get warm under an increasing heat ridge from the 20th until the 23rd of May.  This translates to May 26th through the 29th of May.  The ridge is finally broken down by a “clipper like” system on the 25th in the Far East and that matches the timing of the 31st of May in Central Missouri.  A trough then takes over and last until the 3rd of June which means below normal temperatures for Central Missouri until the 9th of June.

The Bering Sea Rule is showing a weak system impacting the Plains on the 21st of June, which pumps up the ridge for areas East of the Midwest until June 10th.  Then, a sub-Aleutian low comes on the 24th, or the 13th of June for us, and breaks down the said ridge.  This will provide below normal temperatures for areas South of I-70 due to cloud cover and the upper level low setting up shop until the 3rd of June.  That means that most of the Eastern United States will be in a trough for the time period of 13th through the 23rd of June.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

Above Normal End To May Continues The Streak!

Hello everyone!  Even back home in Central Illinois I am finding that my passion is hard to shake.  Below you will see my Bering Sea section of the April 29th long range discussion.

The Bering Sea has a sheared off system at the beginning of May to the north of the Kamchatka Peninsula with ridging to immediately follow between the 5th and 8th of May.  This will provide Central Missouri with well above normal temperatures at the end of the month.  The next system comes from the SW and breaks down the 1032mb ridge and brings cooler than normal temperatures behind it…of course!

Here is the 12z 16MAY14 NAEFS model for the period between the 24th and 31st of May.

12z_16MAY14_NAEFS

Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Trough??? Indeed!!

Back on 30APR14 I mentioned what’s below based on the WPC Alaskan Long Range Discussion…

Below you will find the Alaskan long range discussion that covers Days 4-8.  Note the 2nd paragraph.  I believe this trough will be focused more so in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

Here are the 00Z 16MAY14 ECMWF and 06Z 16MAY14 GFS 850mb temperatures for the night of 24MAY14 and early morning of 25MAY14 respectfully.

 

ECMWF

16MAY14_ECMWF_850MB

 

GFS

16MAY14_GFS_850MB

 

Yes…I realize that “it hasn’t happened yet”, but the proof is in the puddin’.

13MAY14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Japan is showing a volatile set up for the next 10 days and that will translate to a stormy pattern for us.  There is a system that plows through tomorrow which will translate into a system for our area on the 20th.  From there, we have a quasi-zonal set up with multiple storms moving along the flow until a ridge pops on the 20th.  That ridge will start to show up roughly on the 27th here in Central Missouri.  The ridge in Japan will be broken down by a “clipper-like” system from the Northwest on the 23rd, giving Central Missouri relief on the 29th.  This ties into my early June below normal forecast for the past couple of weeks.

For those who have complained about the cooler weather, the Bering Sea is showing a lot of love!  A ridge begins in the Eastern Bering Sea, giving the East Coast a substancial heat wave until it retrogrades into the Central Bering Sea on the 18th.  That translates to the Midwest, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley’s getting the heat around the 7th of June.  The ridge continues until the 24th when the PNA switches to positive and a sub-Aleutian low shreds it apart and cools us off on the 13th of June.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

A Missouri Storm Chase

14APR14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a decent sized trough tomorrow, with beautiful ridging following on the 18th and 19th.  This translates to ridging in Central MO on May 7th and 8th.  Then, like clockwork, another trough comes behind on the 20th and 21st of April.  This leads me to believe that there will be a severe weather outbreak on May 9th.  

 

Hey gang! Tom Stoltze and I went for a little drive yesterday. Since the warm front was taking it’s time moving NE, we decided to play along US-50 between California and Sedalia. The warm front finally started to move and I noticed the storms starting to pop in NE Kansas City, MO. Coming up on US-65 I told Tom to drive to Marshall for intercept. With storm motions at a meager 18kts, we arrived in Marshall well ahead of the storm. We followed US-24 to Lexington, MO about the same time that Orrick was being hit.

This was above us…

Mammatus

 

What you are seeing are Mammatus clouds.  For the record…they are NOT unusual!

Mammatus Clouds: Rounded, smooth, sack-like protrusions hanging from the underside of a cloud (usually a thunderstorm anvil). Mammatus clouds often accompany severe thunderstorms, but do not produce severe weather; they may accompany non-severe storms as well.

Radar scan…

Lexington_Mammatus_Radar

I recorded video of a rotating wall cloud just to the NW of Lexington, but my phone won’t allow me to “share” it. 
Tom posted it on his youtube channel though…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gl_QnQ8El6U

Lexington_Radar

We pulled over outside of Waverly and I took a picture of the rotation just South of town.

Waverly

 

Radar scan…

Waverly_Radar

Tom and I were consistently between the circulation and the hail core to our East and the road network from Waverly to Marshall provided a perfect route as US-65 stair stepped SE. Once we arrived in Marshall, we continued East along Route 41. It was at this time that we stopped and took more video with awesome rotation.


A little further down the road we stopped and saw this report come through spotter network just to our NNW.

Marshall_Wind

 

Yes…that is 113mph! Here is the velocity scan at that moment…note the deep reds next to the blue hue’s. 

Marshall_Velocity

and radar…

Marshall_Radar

When we arrived in Arrow Rock I called the KOPN studio and warned them that Rocheport was in line to receive some severe warning level hail in 45 minutes and it would hit Southwest Columbia in roughly 1.5 hours.

Something of note after seeing what has happened today with a storm chaser getting caught in a tornado in Nebraska and another bragging that he was within 100 yards of a tornado.

 

Ladies and gentlemen…Tom Stoltze and I ALWAYS have safety in mind.  Tom was the driver and I was the navigator.  It was my responsibility to place us into the best position as to not jeopardize our safety.  Once we got into said position, both of us were constantly scanning the skies for the signs of either a hail shaft, Rear Flank Downdraft, or satellite rotation away from the main rotation.  Once we see something that catches our attention, Tom and & I discussed the situation and he would make the call of if we packed up the equipment or not.  Then, it would be my decision to place us in a good spot to do the same. Rinse and repeat!  Also, during the drive time both of us were scanning the skies for any satellite rotation that might develop and/or pay attention to the main rotation.

 

So…rest assured that when I am out doing what I love, I do it with the mindset that I will not be complacent enough to not make it home to my children.  Which brings me to another topic…my 13 year old was not happy with me when I got back because I didn’t let her know I was leaving.

 

 

Unsettled Weather

It looks like the May verification is going to be right up there with April regarding it’s grade.

 

14APR14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is showing a decent sized trough tomorrow, with beautiful ridging following on the 18th and 19th.  This translates to ridging in Central MO on May 7th and 8th.  Then, like clockwork, another trough comes behind on the 20th and 21st of April.  This leads me to believe that there will be a severe weather outbreak on May 9th.  Unlike the prior systems, we have ridging immediately set in on the 23rd of April before a sub-Aleutian low comes in with more unsettled weather for us on the 12th of May.

Below you will find the WPC 7 Day QPF forecast for precipitation dated on 08MAY14.

07MAY14_WPC7day

 

This is today’s.  Note how they scaled back on the amounts.  However, the pattern remains in that we are looking at unsettled weather going into the 15th.

09MAY14_7day_QPF