Monthly Archives: June 2014

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Seeing The Intraseasonal Oscillation?

Here is the Weather Prediction Center’s Alaskan Long Range Discussion from 28JUN14…

 

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

VALID 12Z WED JUL 02 2014 - 12Z SUN JUL 06 2014


BLAME THE BLOCK. THE REGULAR BREAKING OF THE FLOW INTO STABLE EDDIES AT HIGH LATITUDES HAS NOW ENTERED A FOURTH SEASON. THE BLOCKING SUPPRESSES THE POLAR STORM TRACK SOUTH OF ALASKA--SO FAR SOUTH AT TIMES THAT EVEN THE PANHANDLE MISSES OUT ON PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GEFS SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DATA CYCLES, JOINING THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS. IN FACT, ALASKA IS SO "ABOVE THE FRAY" THAT EVEN THE NORMALLY PESKY DETAILS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT MATTER MUCH. STUCK WITH THE STEADY ECENS MEAN THIS FORECAST, WHICH KEEPS THE STATE BUFFERED BENEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS--WITH BARELY A BREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS--SHOULD RULE FOR SOME TIME TO COME. 


CISCO


Note the bold and initialized sentence?!  Here and there you have seen me talk about the Intraseasonal Oscillation and the Rossby Wave as shown by Josh Herman who is part of the Bering Sea Rule Research Team.  The two pattern recognition techniques are going to be a major part of our research for the Bering Sea Rule and research projects to follow!

Is This July??!!

Hey everyone!

 

Below you will see the Global Forecasting System Ensembles, or GFS Ensembles, departure from normal temperatures at 7:00 am on July 4th, 2014.

29JUN_GEFS_04JUL

We are looking at departures being between 8° and 12° below normal! Those of you who listen to my weekly long range discussions or follow this blog new about this back on June 2nd!!

 

02JUN14 Long Range Forecast

The Bering Sea Rule is showing a trough rule the roost for most of the next 10 days.  You have learned by following KOPN Weather the result for Central Missouri will experience below normal temperatures.  With that being said, look for the end of June and beginning of July to be below normal with the July 4th celebrations needing an umbrella.

July 4th Cooler Trend

02JUN14 Long Range Discussion

 

The Bering Sea Rule is showing a trough rule the roost for most of the next 10 days.  You have learned by following KOPN Weather the result for Central Missouri will experience below normal temperatures.  With that being said, look for the end of June and beginning of July to be below normal with the July 4th celebrations needing an umbrella.

 

My timing regarding the late June cooler than normal was  a bit off as I should’ve just gone with the beginning of July.  Take a look at these two pictures though from the European model this morning.

The European Ensemble on the left with standard deviations from normal in the purple covering most of the Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee River Valley’s.

Euro_Ens_Spread_26JUN14

Here is the operational model 850mb temperatures and 500mb heights showing a nice SW-NE orientated trough stretching from the Midwest into Atlantic Canada.

July 4th

23JUN14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is still on track with a system on the 26th and 27th of June which translates to a storm on the 4th of July. The celebrations are going to be cutting it close as to rain probabilities. Then, quasi-zonal flow sets up between June 28th and July 3rd.  This means a slow warming trend until the 10th of July for us after the storm on the 4th and 5th.  Another system hits Japan between the 3rd and 5th of July and that translates to a storm on the 10th for Central Missouri.  Ridging immediately follows for some typical Missouri summer warmth.

After the 27th storm in the Bering Sea, which gives Central Missouri unsettled weather on the 17th of July, we see a ridge follow until the 2nd of July.  This gives us above normal temperatures until July 22nd.  A strong storm develops and creates a trough between July 3rd and 6th.  We will see slightly below normal temperatures from the 23rd until the 26th of July.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

23JUN14 Severe Weather

The latest Hi-Resolution models are showing a nice complex moving along I-40 this evening.

 

HiRes NAM

23JUN14 00z model run

HIRESNAM_23JUN14_Forecast

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

23JUN14 00z model runHRRR_23JUN14_Forecast

 

27MAY14 Forecast

This will translate to ridging for Central Missouri from the 16th through the 23rd of June with a severe weather outbreak between June 23rd and 25th for areas between I-70 and I-40. 

Late June Relief

It’s time for another verification post…

 

27MAY14 Long Range Forecast

 

KOPN Weather’s bread and butter, the Bering Sea Rule, is showing a ridge continuing for the left-center of the Bering Sea until it pushes East through the 3rd of June due to a system coming from Manchuria.  This will translate to ridging for Central Missouri from the 16th through the 23rd of June with a severe weather outbreak between June 23rd and 25th for areas between I-70 and I-40. The trough left behind will stay until June 8th, which gives us cooler weather from the 25th through the 28th of June.

 

The latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day outlook for the same period…

24JUN_28JUN_610Day

18JUN14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is breaking the trough trend with a Quasi-zonal flow allowing for a gradual warm up in the coming days.  Then, another system comes through Japan on the 27th of June, which translates to a storm around the July 4th holiday.  This matches my Bering Sea Rule call of needing the umbrella’s to watch the fireworks.  Timing will be better squared away as we get closer.

A ridge dominates the Bering Sea Rule at the beginning of the forecast period as we have a strong storm moving through on the 25th-27th of June.  This will provide above normal temperatures for Central Missouri from the 11th-15th of July.  Immediately in it’s wake, around July 1st, we see another ridge develop providing the KOPN listening area with above normal temperatures once again in the period of the 21st of July.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

Rain…Rain…Go Away!

It would seem to me that for the past two weeks I have been bringing those in Central MO the same theme…rain.  For the month of May we were -1.93″ as a whole in Columbia, and -1.54″ in Jefferson City.  Both being between 50%-70% of normal that month.

May_Precipitation_Anomaly

 

The latest weather pattern is trying to make up for that.

14_Day_Precipitation_Anomaly

 

As you can see; Central Missouri, for the most part, is in a predicament with areas as high as 200% of normal to our WSW.  While our friends in Northern MO are, more than likely, well above 300% of normal.

 

I guess what I’m trying to say is…

 

Be Careful What You Wish For…You just might get it!

10JUN14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The East Asia connection, or Typhoon Rule, is in the end of it’s 6 to 10 day range with a trough.  This trough sticks around from the 20th until the end of the month for most of the Eastern United States bringing below normal temperatures.  I still believe that we will have a severe weather outbreak while this cold front pushes through.

The trough that has dominated the Bering Sea is finally pushing Eastward allowing the Plains and Midwest to warm up immediately after the July 4th holiday.  This means that areas East of the Mississippi Valley will need their umbrellas for the fireworks and the temperatures will be below normal. Ridging then takes over in the Plains and Midwest allowing for warmer than normal temperatures until the 10th of July while the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic are below normal in temperatures due to the trough.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

Climate Prediction Center Sees Warm Up

27MAY14 Long Range Discussion

 

KOPN Weather’s bread and butter, the Bering Sea Rule, is showing a ridge continuing for the left-center of the Bering Sea until it pushes East through the 3rd of June due to a system coming from Manchuria.  This will translate to ridging for Central Missouri from the 16th through the 23rd of June with a severe weather outbreak between June 23rd and 25th for areas between I-70 and I-40. The trough left behind will stay until June 8th, which gives us cooler weather from the 25th through the 28th of June.

 

15JUN_21JUN_CPC