Monthly Archives: July 2014

The Current ENSO Status and Motivations Behind 2002/2009 Extreme Analogs

Hey everyone,

 

Here is something that I created to show the current status of the Pacific Ocean Surface Sea Temperatures subtracting the analog sets of 1986, 2002, and 2009 respectfully.

SST_2014_1986

SST_2014_2002

SST_2014_2009

 

Now…we pull from the other analogs used for this summer of 1963, 1968,  1982, 1991, and 1994.

SST_2014_1963

SST_2014_1968

SST_2014_1982

SST_2014_1991

SST_2014_1994

If I apply the same analogs used for the summer…

El_Nino_Temperatures

 

This is the result…

Winter_Analogs2

 

As for the motivation?  Look no farther than the extreme winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 for those to our East, along with the extreme tornado counts of 2003 and 2010.

2003_Tornadoes

 

2010_Tornadoes

 

 

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29JUL14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Halong is yet another influence right now in the Western Pacific.  It is forecasted to be in the East China and Yellow Seas from tomorrow until the 3rd of August due to a weakness.  This means that the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley will be in an easing trough and the Northeast Coast will experience ridging from the 6th to the 9th of August. There are conflicting results between the models immediately after that with another typhoon forming.    This is the period around the 14th of August and the start of our heat wave advertised by the Bering Sea Rule last month.

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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A Tale of Two Winter Analogs

Once again I am reminded on why I research the weather.  You see, people can cherry pick data to push their agenda in every aspect of life.  That is what a debate is all about…to convince another person that your idea is better than the other one.  The only problem is that in the weather community we constantly see people showing their true colors regarding bias…

bi·as
/ˈbīəs/
noun
  1. prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair.

 

Let’s start the debate below…

Here you see a time/pressure graphic of all the Northern Hemisphere from the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere from the earth’s surface up to the tropopause, characterized by decreasing temperature with height (except, perhaps, in thin layers – see inversion, cap), vertical wind motion, appreciable water vapor content, and sensible weather (clouds, rain, etc.). into the stratosphere, The region of the atmosphere extending from the top of the troposphere to the base of the mesosphere, an important area for monitoring stratospheric ozone..

Current state, 2014…

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2014

 

As you can see, into late April/early May we experienced periodic surges of warmth down to 15km.

 

Let’s look at the 1986 and 2009 graphs now…shall we?

1986…

Going into mid-April we see multiple instances of warming above 15km.

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_1986

 

2009…one surge of warmth with a very long period of cooler than normal anomalies going past mid-April…

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2009

 

 

Let’s focus this even more so…say 90N to 65N and only giving 30-hPa heights, showing the year before to boot!

2013-Current…

30mb9065

Now…looking at the graphic above, we can see that we had a significant stratospheric cooling event between mid-November of 2013 into January of 2014 before a SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming event took place which resulted in January being -4.6° below normal.

 

Here is 1985-1986…

30mb9065_1986

and 2009-2010…

30mb9065_2009

Talk about vast differences!

In late 1985, we see a minor SSW, not unlike the past winter of 2013-2014 while late 2008 we see cooling taking place and a very significant SSW early in 2009.  Also, take a look at the volatility of the stratosphere in late winter and spring for this year and 1986 vs the gradual cooling of 2009.

Next we see the GWO, or Global Wind Oscillation.  The phase is an exact match between 1986 and 2014 going through 07/17 with the others being closely matched.

Year        AAM                       TEND               Stage                Phase                amp
1986 -0.375909091 0.047727273 19.11616162 3.393939394 1.252020202
2009 -0.527272727 -0.00489899 17.12121212 2.914141414 1.115656566
2014 -0.17010101 -0.020909091 23.15656566 3.393939394 1.068181818

Finally… we move into another index called the QBO, or quasi-biennial Oscillation showing 1986 cannot be ignored.

1985  -0.38   4.16   6.35  11.10  13.55  13.88  11.09  11.07  11.70  11.83  11.62   9.87
1986   8.73  10.14  11.95   9.10   3.55  -2.17  -5.26  -9.61 -10.22  -9.61  -8.02 -10.52

2008 -12.43  -4.71   2.18   6.42  11.52  13.45  13.26  11.62  11.59  11.04   9.12  10.46
2009  10.71  12.33  11.44   9.10   1.55  -5.48 -12.21 -14.46 -13.82 -11.70 -13.83 -15.57

2013  -6.07  -1.24   2.85   8.39  12.64  13.38  14.28  14.66  13.12  11.69  12.45  12.55
2014  13.13  12.68  11.71   7.14  -2.81 -13.98

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21JUL14 Long Range Discussion

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Matmo is our key weather feature right now in the Western Pacific.  It is forecasted to hit Northern Taiwan and Southeastern China in two and a half days.  Then, it gets picked up by a trough on the 24th of July which turns it poleward. If we apply our Typhoon Rule, it means that we will feel the effects roughly around the 2nd of August.  Then a persistent trough takes over into the 5th of August for East Asia which matches my August 5th through 10th below normal call for Central Missouri.

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

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Model…Performance? I Guess We Can Call It That?!

Good morning everyone!

 

As I sit here looking at the models I reminded myself that it has been quite a while since I’ve shown the model performance as of late.  Dismal wouldn’t even cut it!

 

Because of the strong link between the PNA and the Bering Sea Rule, I am pulling the data for that specific area from the NCEP EMC website.

 

I have grabbed the 500mb heights and temperature options because I cannot grab an 850mb height graphic for continuity.

 

Heights

Day 10

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2PNA

Yes…you are seeing that correctly!  The correlation numbers are that bad!  They get “somewhat better” on day 8.

cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2PNA

 

 

Here are the temperature graphics…

 

Day 10

cor_day10_T_P500_G2PNA

Day 8

cor_day8_T_P500_G2PNA

Finally, below you will see the updated Day 7 numbers for the lower 48 via the Weather Prediction Center website.

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR

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14JUL14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

We start the Typhoon Rule with a stout ridge over Northeast China between the 17th and 21st.  This will provide Central MO a gradual warming period between July 23rd and 27th.  A weakness forms between that high pressure and another off of Japan over the Ryukyu Islands and a few tropical impulses will ease through it providing us with gulf moisture in the 21st through 24th time period.  I see hints of an upper level low setting up shop in the long range which matches the below normal call made last week for the 5th of August.

The Bering Sea Rule has moderating heights until the 21st, which translates to a warming trend late in the first full week of August.  Then a trough comes in until the 28th.  This trough is stout and has multiple systems rotating around the backside of it to provide Central Missouri with multiple rain chances and quick drop in temperatures until at least the 18th of August.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Transparency

As promised, here is the research as to what happened during my calls in May and early June.

 

06MAY14 Long Range Discussion

This week, the Bering Sea has a trough from May 8th until the 11th.  This will correlate to Central MO May 28th through the 31st.  A system comes from the Northwest on the 11th and that halts a ridge from building behind the trough.  Due to that, the trough continues over the Bering Sea where a strong positive Pacific North American Oscilation (PNA) builds between the 13th and 20th of May.  That means that Central MO will be in below normal temperatures from June 2nd to June 10th.

NWS Ocean Prediction Center 500mb Pacific 24 hour forecast for 17MAY14 shows a ridge taking over most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island chain.  Definitely not a positive PNA look!

pac24.500fcst.12.2014051617

Confirmed that it was negative via the Earth Systems Research Library between the 13th and 20th…#sigh

pna

 

13MAY14 Long Range Discussion

For those who have complained about the cooler weather, the Bering Sea is showing a lot of love!  A ridge begins in the Eastern Bering Sea, giving the East Coast a substantial heat wave until it retrogrades into the Central Bering Sea on the 18th.  That translates to the Midwest, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley’s getting the heat around the 7th of June.  The ridge continues until the 24th when the PNA switches to positive and a sub-Aleutian low shreds it apart and cools us off on the 13th of June.

Again…the 24 hour forecast was showing something different during the period…

pac24.500fcst.00.2014052303

 

20MAY14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule is showing a weak system impacting the Plains on the 21st of June, which pumps up the ridge for areas East of the Midwest until June 10th.  Then, a sub-Aleutian low comes on the 24th, or the 13th of June for us, and breaks down the said ridge.  This will provide below normal temperatures for areas South of I-70 due to cloud cover and the upper level low setting up shop until the 3rd of June.  That means that most of the Eastern United States will be in a trough for the time period of 13th through the 23rd of June.

Yes and no…

pac24.500fcst.00.2014052803

 

27MAY14 Long Range Discussion

KOPN Weather’s bread and butter, the Bering Sea Rule, is showing a ridge continuing for the left-center of the Bering Sea until it pushes East through the 3rd of June due to a system coming from Manchuria.  This will translate to ridging for Central Missouri from the 16th through the 23rd of June with a severe weather outbreak between June 23rd and 25th for areas between I-70 and I-40. The trough left behind will stay until June 8th, which gives us cooler weather from the 25th through the 28th of June.

The OPC confirms!

pac24.500fcst.00.2014060205

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Enjoy It While You Can!

No sooner did I post about the below normal temperatures than I realized how I should remind people that we are in summer.

09JUL14_4panel

 

Above is the ESRL 4 Panel teleconnections graphic which I utilize daily and have coined “It’s a marriage of sorts!” from.  A few days ago I discussed how various people look at only one teleconnection when forecasting a pattern of above or below normal temperatures.  The above comes in handy because you don’t have to continue to flip back and forth between pages to view the 4 major indicies at once.  The results of the graphic above for areas East of the Rockies are quite simple.  With a negative PNA and positive EPO/NAO combination we will see an uptick to above normal temperatures roughly between the 21st and 23rd of July after a slow moderation trend.

 

18JUN14 Long Range Discussion

A ridge dominates the Bering Sea Rule at the beginning of the forecast period as we have a strong storm moving through on the 25th-27th of June.  This will provide above normal temperatures for Central Missouri from the 11th-15th of July.  Immediately in it’s wake, around July 1st, we see another ridge develop providing the KOPN listening area with above normal temperatures once again in the period of the 21st of July.

Look towards the end of the right side though.  Yes, you often hear me harp about the long range forecasting abilities of the models being horrid, but this time it senses the pattern at hand.  The PNA is rising and the other three are falling.  This supports my call on June 23rd.

 

23JUN14 Long Range Discussion

After the 27th storm in the Bering Sea, which gives Central Missouri unsettled weather on the 17th of July, we see a ridge follow until the 2nd of July.  This gives us above normal temperatures until July 22nd.  A strong storm develops and creates a trough between July 3rd and 6th.  We will see slightly below normal temperatures from the 23rd until the 26th of July.

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We Like…no…LOVE, Blue Hues In Summer!!!

09JUL14_610_Day

 

Above you see the 6-10 Day Temperature outlook from the CPC.  Just pray that we don’t see that strong of blue this coming winter again!

18JUN14 Long Range Discussion discussed this…

 

A ridge dominates the Bering Sea Rule at the beginning of the forecast period as we have a strong storm moving through on the 25th-27th of June.  This will provide above normal temperatures for Central Missouri from the 11th-15th of July.  Immediately in it’s wake, around July 1st, we see another ridge develop providing the KOPN listening area with above normal temperatures once again in the period of the 21st of July.

With better explanation in the Accuweather.com forums on 19JUN14.

Accuwx_post

 

CPC 8-14 Day outlook

08JUL14_814_Day

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08JUL14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Neoguri is still the eye-catcher for this current time period.  At first it makes a beeline for the Yellow Sea, but just prior it takes a quick exit, stage right, into Japan.  The well advertised result for the KOPN listening area is below normal temperatures in the time period of July 15th through the 18th as the typhoon is absorbed into an impressive upper level low over Sakhalin Island.  This also produces above normal temperatures for those on the East coast in the same time period.

The Bering Sea Rule is showing an East Coast and Great Lakes trough in the beginning of our forecast period from the 9th until the 13th of July.  This translates to the 29th of July into the 3rd of August.  At the same time the trough is in position out East, we will be experiencing above normal temperatures due to an upper level low over Sakhalin Island.  Then, an upper level low sets up shop in the Bering Sea between July 15th and 20th.  This means below normal temperatures from the 5th to the 10th of August.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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