Monthly Archives: August 2014

Revisiting Model Performance…If You Can Call It That

Hey everyone,

 

After noticing Dr. Ryan Maue’s tweet yesterday regarding the GFS Northern Hemisphere in the 5 day range, I figured it wouldn’t hurt to look at it’s medium to long range performance in the PNA region.

Here is his tweet for the GFS 5 day in the Northern Hemisphere.

GFS_Maue_Tweet

the European wasn’t too far behind…

Maue_Day5_Euro_Tweet

 

Soo…let’s give it a go.

500mb Anomaly Correlation for Day 8.

29AUG14_PNA_500mb_8day_Correlation

and Day 10

29AUG14_PNA_500mb_10day_Correlation

 

Here is the WPC Day 7 verification for the CONUS

29AUG14_WPC_Verification

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28AUG14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule doesn’t agree with the warmth being shown on the modeling for the first two weeks of September.  There is a continuous trough in East Asia that shows us that our average temperature for the period will be either at, or slightly below normal.  The reason is quite simple, we have reached the apex of summer and our daily averages are starting to fall.  One of the common models, the GFS is a tad too quick on a ridge being created on the 5th of September and look for it to be pushed back a few days for warming in Central MO around the 14th, per the Bering Sea Rule forecast on August 16th.

The Alaska Extended Discussion yesterday brought up how they were seeing a “fall-like” pattern develop in their 4-8 day range.  This translates to Central MO enjoying the same pattern the 17th through the 21st of September.  We will experience a quick warm up on the 21st and then zonal flow follows until September 26th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Weathertrends360° Winter Forecast

Hello everyone,

 

A while back I was introduced to the people at Weathertrends360° due to their long range accuracy. They have issued their winter forecast already and it looks very similar to what I’ve been mentioning to y’all.  An above normal snowfall with close to normal temperatures.

Here are the yearly snowfall totals and averages for Columbia, MO.

COUSnow

 

Please note how the ’30 year running average’ is just under 20″ of snow.  This includes months outside of our meteorological winter, so keep that in mind.

Here are their outlooks…

Temperature…close to average and warmer than last year!

0-winter-map-temps2

 

Total snowfall….125%-200% more than average.

0-winter-snowfall-forecast-map-final1

Finally…a month by month breakdown…

0-monthly-snow-chart

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2014 Heat Wave

Good morning all!

 

The National Weather Service Glossary classifies a ‘Heat Wave’ as…

 

Heat Wave: A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and unusually humid weather. Typically a heat wave lasts two or more days.

The Bering Sea Rule is being researched partly because of the ability to correctly forecast extreme weather events like heat waves and arctic blast.  Not only because of the impact on you and I, but because of the impact on agriculture, businesses of multiple different flavors, schools, transportation, both state and federal emergency response, and to round up the list…energy sector.  This is the basis of weather risk management.

 

July 21st Long Range Forecast Discussion

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

 

2014_Heat_Wave

 

July 29th Long Range Forecast Discussion

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

 

To follow up, this was the ‘Typhoon Rule’ forecast…

 

August 7th, 2014 Forecast Discussion

The models have finally converged on a solution regarding the interaction of Typhoon Halong into an upper level low over Southeast Russia.  Instead of a true recurvature, we are seeing it become absorbed into said system.  This works in concert with the Bering Sea Rule call last month because the trough isn’t as strong, and misplaced, to have a major impact on our weather. So, I see a moderating warm up until the 18th of August when our heat will make a return. Then, a new system hits Japan on August 16th and that will translate to roughly the 24th of August and matching our July 21st Bering Sea call for below normal temperatures around the 25th.

The latest forecast from the St. Louis National Weather Service…

  • Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 6 to 13 mph.
  • Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.

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Heat…What Heat??

Yep…it’s a #heatwave! Did we have a heads up? We sure did!!!

July 21st Long Range Forecast Discussion

A heat dome of three standard deviations above normal is forecasted over the Central Aleutian islands until the 28th of July.  It then retrogrades to the Western Aleutians through August 3rd before going even farther West to support a ‘ridge west, trough east’ pattern once again.  This translates to major heat for areas East of the Mississippi Valley between the 14th and 23rd  of August for our first true heat wave.

 

Rest assured that we will have a cool down to follow though!

July 29th Long Range Forecast Discussion

The heat dome that has been a dominate feature in the Bering Sea gives way to an Omega Block pattern.  This pattern is a stagnant one and continues until the 5th of August with ridging in the Central Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Then the upper level low to the West breaks it down finally and takes over with a trough until August 13th. So, applying the Bering Sea Rule, we can see that Central Missouri will experience relief roughly around August 25th and the heat will move East to the Ohio Valley, Northeast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

 

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
  FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 105 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
  AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

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KOPN Mid-Missouri Freedom Forum Interview

Hello all,

 

Last night I was interviewed by Steve Spellman and the KOPN Mid-Missouri Freedom Forum with Dr. Lupo of our research team joining in.  We had a great time talking about our research into long range forecasting and I will post the archived interview as soon as it’s available!

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2014 Fall Outlook

Hello everyone!

 

Well, the time has come!  After having a good friend of mine perform a straight iv push of some of the strongest coffee around, I was able to get this squared away.  Well…not the iv push…but close enough! lol

 

Fall_Outlook

 

Let’s start off with the Historical Great Lakes Ice Extent for comparison…

Great_Lakes_Ice_Historical

 

Note the trends here?  This past year, the Great Lakes broke records in the amount of ice that covered the bodies of water.  Now, look at my analogs and compare them to the chart above…

1986, 2002, 2006, and 2009.

  1. 1985/86…above average
  2. 2002/03…above average
  3. 2008/09…above average

Now…keep the corresponding winter in mind for 2014/15 winter season ice coverage. 😉

Severe Weather has been very tranquil this year despite a few high profile outbreaks in Nebraska and the ever-so-popular South.  The current number of tornadoes as of August 15th is 863.

torngraph-big

As you can see by the graphic above, 2005 and 2012 are the closest in relationship with 2006 a close 3rd. Unfortunately, I cannot obtain a yearly graphic like the one above for the other years in my dataset.

 

Here is the current outlook of what the sunspots have been recorded and the ‘projected’ outlook in the near future…

cycles23_24

Here is the sunspot numbers for my analogs…

1968

cycl20

Even though the numbers are somewhat higher, the trend is leveling off and then a slow lowering.

Here in 1977, our average is roughly the same…just a hair lower.

hist7709_10

 

As for my teleconnection choices…

  1. PNA
  2. NOI
  3. SOI
  4. ONI
  5. QBO
  6. MEI
  7. PDO
  8. EPO

There are just way too many graphics to utilize here, so I have provided you with the links to see where I am coming from. Rest assured that I looked at everything and the point of taking multiple analog sets is because you come up with an “ensemble” of the most extremes on either side and your result should be close.

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16AUG14 Long Range Forecast

Hey gang!  My deepest apologies for not getting this out sooner!!  To say that my week has been going crazy is an understatement!

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is showing ridging until the 20th which still flows with our earlier calls about a system coming around the 25th of August to break down the heat.  Then, another short lived ridging comes to play around August 23rd and 24th, which translates to a short warm up around the 30th of August for Central Missouri.  The trough in its wake sets up shop until the 31st in East Asia and that means below normal temperatures for Central Missouri well into the first week of September matching our call last week in the Bering Sea section.

We are continuing the same pattern over and over in the Bering Sea which shows that it will be under a continuous Northwest flow.  That means below normal temperatures up until the first of September there and translating to below normal temperatures until mid-September. It’s debatable as to the main impact, but I can guarantee that it won’t be like the first half of last September where we were 4 degrees above normal until the 16th!

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 2014 Forecast Verification

I know, I know…it’s a “tad” bit late.  Regardless, here we go…

 

The “dismal” performance of June’s verification has been redeemed by July.  It also confirms how the Bering Sea Rule is worth researching and only when human error is mixed in, does it fail.

 

02JUN14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule is showing a trough rule the roost for most of the next 10 days.  You have learned by following KOPN Weather the result for Central Missouri will experience below normal temperatures.  With that being said, look for the end of June and beginning of July to be below normal with the July 4th celebrations needing an umbrella.

 

Results…

01JUL_04JUL

As you can see, we experienced roughly -2° departures during this period.  Not only that, but I was ~14 hours off on the rain for the 4th.  A good friend of mine and I were bailing hay like crazy to make sure that none of it was ruined before it started raining ~10am on Saturday as an MCS from the Northwest came through.

cent_missvly_201407051730

 

10JUN14 Long Range Discussion

The trough that has dominated the Bering Sea is finally pushing Eastward allowing the Plains and Midwest to warm up immediately after the July 4th holiday.  This means that areas East of the Mississippi Valley will need their umbrellas for the fireworks and the temperatures will be below normal. Ridging then takes over in the Plains and Midwest allowing for warmer than normal temperatures until the 10th of July while the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic are below normal in temperatures due to the trough.

 

Results…

06JUL_08JUL

A cold front came through on the 8th and provided relief from the 93° high on July 7th.

18JUN14 Long Range Discussion

A ridge dominates the Bering Sea Rule at the beginning of the forecast period as we have a strong storm moving through on the 25th-27th of June.  This will provide above normal temperatures for Central Missouri from the 11th-15th of July.  Immediately in it’s wake, around July 1st, we see another ridge develop providing the KOPN listening area with above normal temperatures once again in the period of the 21st of July.

 

Results…

11JUL_14JUL

Then, the trough that came through is one that we won’t forget as our high was only 75° and a low of 55° on the 15th making the mean -13° below normal!  The colder anomalies continued until the 21st of July and was the cause of the return of the dreaded “Polar Vortex” term being used by people that shouldn’t have been using it.

15JUL_21JUL

23JUN14 Long Range Discussion

After the 27th storm in the Bering Sea, which gives Central Missouri unsettled weather on the 17th of July, we see a ridge follow until the 2nd of July.  This gives us above normal temperatures until July 22nd.  A strong storm develops and creates a trough between July 3rd and 6th.  We will see slightly below normal temperatures from the 23rd until the 26th of July.

 

Results…

21JUL_22JUL

23JUL_26JUL

The only reason why we are between 0 and .5 anomalies is because we hit 95° on the 26th.  If that had not happened, we would’ve been below normal.

01JUL14 Long Range Discussion

Not to be underminded by the typhoon, a system from the Bering Sea will actually retrograde into the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.  This will pump up a ridge for those in Central Missouri until two systems, one on July 4th, and another on July 7th, bring a quick cool down from the heat.  That being said, the ridge quickly rebuilds.  So…the 24th and 27th of July will see storminess in the KOPN listening area and ridging to start the month of August.

Results…

There weren’t any storms on those days for Central MO.  However, a cold front did come through each day.

24JUL14 Surface Plot

stnplot_20140724

27JUL14 Surface Plot

stnplot_20140727

08JUL14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea Rule is showing an East Coast and Great Lakes trough in the beginning of our forecast period from the 9th until the 13th of July.  This translates to the 29th of July into the 3rd of August.  At the same time the trough is in position out East, we will be experiencing above normal temperatures due to an upper level low over Sakhalin Island.  Then, an upper level low sets up shop in the Bering Sea between July 15th and 20th.  This means below normal temperatures from the 5th to the 10th of August.

Results…

26JUL_31JUL

 

So…we are back to giving the Bering Sea Rule a grade of ‘A’.  Also, I have been tossing around the thought of creating verification forecast for the Typhoon Rule because we have included it in the research with the University of Missouri.

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07AUG14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The models have finally converged on a solution regarding the interaction of Typhoon Halong into an upper level low over Southeast Russia.  Instead of a true recurvature, we are seeing it become absorbed into said system.  This works in concert with the Bering Sea Rule call last month because the trough isn’t as strong, and misplaced, to have a major impact on our weather. So, I see a moderating warm up until the 18th of August when our heat will make a return. Then, a new system hits Japan on August 16th and that will translate to roughly the 24th of August and matching our July 21st Bering Sea call for below normal temperatures around the 25th.

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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