Back on December 13th, 2013, a friend of mine on the Accuweather.com forums labeled my forecasting technique as “sorcery”.
Even using JD’s long-range sorcery, those details won’t be worked out for at least a week but definitely a more promising period than anything in the short term.
Soo…let’s take a basic view of one of the techniques that I utilize. In the mid-1990’s, I was a member of the USN Ballistic Submarine Force as a sonar technician aboard the USS Alaska SSBN-732 Blue Crew out of Bangor, WA.
One of the first tactics we learned about in sonar was that of employing detection and avoidance techniques when it came to “CZ’s”, or convergence zones.
Another special type of propagation occurs when the water is so deep that no sound can reach the bottom without being deflected upwards by the normal positive gradient found in the deep isothermal layer. This situation requires a minimum of 200 m of depth excess which is defined as…
depth excess: the distance from the lower boundary of the sound channel to the bottom.
When all of the sound rays are returned to near the surface, they tend to converge into a small region. Therefore the sound pressure level is increased dramatically in this region known as a convergence zones (CZ).
The convergence zone tends to be at large distances, typically 20-30 nm from the source. It is possible to have multiple convergence zones, which will occur at regular intervals. For example, if the first CZ is at 30 nm, the second CZ would be at 60 nm. The CZ is only a few miles wide, and therefore, contacts which are acquired through convergence zones tend to appear and disappear quickly.
When the contacts would disappear, they would fall into what we called a “shadow zone”.
As that diagram shows, the shadow zone is an area where the sound propagation does not reach either channels.
Over the years, I have been known to tell new weather enthusiast in social media and weather forums alike that the weather models that are utilized to forecast up to 15 days in advance have a tendency to be too quick and also loose systems once they get into specific ranges.
Consider, if you will, a wave in the atmosphere is caught in the shadow zone of the modeling. This is where we have less data available to capture the features produced by a system.
“Take your blinders off and look at the big picture.”
Now…picture with me how there are some out there that liken the ocean to an “underwater atmosphere”. The same theories that apply to troposphere apply to the oceanic atmosphere in one form or another. Correlate how sound travels in the ocean with how Rossby Waves travel in the atmosphere.
This, then brings me to the research by Josh Herman. His Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal Oscillation is a basis for the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules as both rules are dictated by Rossby Wave’s and how they travel in the atmosphere. Out of the blue, I remembered some pictures that we studied in sonar school while looking at some of Josh’s work…
Despite the set back of it being labeled in French, you can see there are two distinct “channels” of sound wave propagation. The first is in the shallow layer, while the second is in the convergence zone. Now…flip your thinking into atmospheric dynamics…Instead of thinking what you are seeing as sound…imagine it to be a Rossby Wave. Josh’s research has proven that we have both short and long term fluctuations as to when systems repeat themselves.
Consider the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules as the short term fluctuation and then we have a longer term fluctuation that he is looking into in the form of Rossby Waves and the Intraseasonal Oscillation.