Monthly Archives: September 2014

North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Word of Caution

Hey everyone,

 

I am sure that you are seeing post and tweets galore about the anomalously warm temperatures in the North Pacific.  What a variety of people are doing are making the correlation of those temperatures to what this winter will be like since those same areas experienced above normal anomalies last winter.

However, take note of what they looked like at this time last year.

09/26/2013

09262013_SST

It started to flip to warmer anomalies in December of 2013.

Dec_13_SST

Here is the current status of the same areas…

09252014_SST

A few things to take note…

  • Warm North Pacific as a whole as of 09/25/2014
  • Highest anomalies are close to Canada’s western shores instead of South of Seward, AK per the December anomaly graphic.
  • Cooler than normal Kuroshio current stretching from Japan to just North of Hawaii while it was warmer last year.

I will be paying close attention to these factors as it gets closer to November.

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What Does Submarine Sonar Training Have To Do With “Sorcery”?

Hello everyone!

 

Back on December 13th, 2013, a friend of mine on the Accuweather.com forums labeled my forecasting technique as “sorcery”.

Even using JD’s long-range sorcery, those details won’t be worked out for at least a week but definitely a more promising period than anything in the short term.

Soo…let’s take a basic view of one of the techniques that I utilize.  In the mid-1990’s, I was a member of the USN Ballistic Submarine Force as a sonar technician aboard the USS Alaska SSBN-732 Blue Crew out of Bangor, WA.

USS_Alaska

Ex-Sonar_6-02

 

One of the first tactics we learned about in sonar was that of employing detection and avoidance techniques when it came  to “CZ’s”, or convergence zones.

Another special type of propagation occurs when the water is so deep that no sound can reach the bottom without being deflected upwards by the normal positive gradient found in the deep isothermal layer. This situation requires a minimum of 200 m of depth excess which is defined as…

depth excess: the distance from the lower boundary of the sound channel to the bottom.

When all of the sound rays are returned to near the surface, they tend to converge into a small region. Therefore the sound pressure level is increased dramatically in this region known as a convergence zones (CZ).

The convergence zone tends to be at large distances, typically 20-30 nm from the source. It is possible to have multiple convergence zones, which will occur at regular intervals. For example, if the first CZ is at 30 nm, the second CZ would be at 60 nm. The CZ is only a few miles wide, and therefore, contacts which are acquired through convergence zones tend to appear and disappear quickly.

CZ

When the contacts would disappear, they would fall into what we called a “shadow zone”.

sonar1

As that diagram shows, the shadow zone is an area where the sound propagation does not reach either channels.

Over the years, I have been known to tell new weather enthusiast in social media and weather forums alike that the weather models that are utilized to forecast up to 15 days in advance have a tendency to be too quick and also loose systems once they get into specific ranges.

Consider, if you will, a wave in the atmosphere is caught in the shadow zone of the modeling.  This is where we have less data available to capture the features produced by a system.

 

“Take your blinders off and look at the big picture.”

Now…picture with me how there are some out there that liken the ocean to an “underwater atmosphere”.  The same theories that apply to troposphere apply to the oceanic atmosphere in one form or another.  Correlate how sound travels in the ocean with how Rossby Waves travel in the atmosphere.

This, then brings me to the research by Josh Herman.  His Rossby Wave and Intraseasonal Oscillation is a basis for the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules as both rules are dictated by Rossby Wave’s and how they travel in the atmosphere.  Out of the blue, I remembered some pictures that we studied in sonar school while looking at some of Josh’s work…

 

 

Rayons

 

Despite the set back of it being labeled in French, you can see there are two distinct “channels” of sound wave propagation.  The first is in the shallow layer, while the second is in the convergence zone.  Now…flip your thinking into atmospheric dynamics…Instead of thinking what you are seeing as sound…imagine it to be a Rossby Wave. Josh’s research has proven that we have both short and long term fluctuations as to when systems repeat themselves.

 

Consider the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules as the short term fluctuation and then we have a longer term fluctuation that he is looking into in the form of Rossby Waves and the Intraseasonal Oscillation.

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What’s A Day Between Friends?

Hey everyone,

 

While performing my regular morning duties, I decided to check out the WPC 5 Day Forecast maps.

27SEP14_5day

 

As you can see above, we have a very strong cold front moving through ~7am 03OCT14 with a warm surge prior.  Did we know about this before hand? Of course we did!

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion Bering Sea Section…

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

The NWS forecast as of 27SEP14 8:54am…Our normal highs this time of year are in the lower 70’s.

27SEP14_Forecast

11SEP14 Long Range Discussion Bering Sea Section…

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September.  Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe. 

Typhoon Rule Section…

So…look for Central Missouri to experience below normal temperatures from the 22nd into the 25th with a moderating trend.  Then, we have yet another “Manchurian candidate” on the 24th that pumps up an even stronger ridge until the 26th.  This means the beginning of October will be well above normal.

18SEP14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section…

In the West Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Fung-wong approaching the island of Luzon as it curves Northerly barely missing Taiwan due to being latched into a trough over East Asia.  Y’all know that means Central Missouri will experience a cooler period around the 26th before another quick ridge develops as evident by the cyclone not making another curve to the Northeast until the 23rd. Then another trough picks it up.  This will translate to Central Missouri experiencing a slight warm up around the 27th into the 29th before another cooler period hits us for October.  My thoughts are still that it will be roughly October 2nd when that happens. Then zonal flow follows for a moderation of temperatures.

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President Obama’s U.N. Climate Summit Speech

 

USA Today went even farther by interviewing the National Weather Service Director, Louis Uccellini, for a more detailed explanation of what POTUS Obama meant.

 

To kick off the effort this year, NOAA will begin issuing weekly three- to four-week precipitation outlooks and will extend its current extreme-heat index product, now six to 10 days, out to eight to 14 days, giving communities several additional days to prepare for potential life-threatening heat waves,” according to a NOAA release.

 

Oh…but why just precipitation?  We can do sooo much more!

 

This is only the beginning!

 

 

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A Cool Start To October As A Whole

Hey everyone!

Below you can see the latest NAEFS, North American Ensemble Forecasting System, model for the time period of October 4th through the 11th.

26SEP14_NAEFS

 

You can see that during this time period, we have between a 50 and 60 percent chance of being below normal in temperatures.

Here is the calendar that the research student produced out of my forecast.

18SEP2014_Long Range

 

There will be a transition from the cooler pattern at the beginning of the month until roughly the 9th when the next big time trough comes through.

 

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25SEPT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will recurve just short of Iwo Jima by the 28th and that gives Central Missouri an extra cold boost roughly around the 5th of October. Zonal flow follows on the 2nd of October and continues until the 5th when another strong trough pushes through matching my timeline of the 9th into the 14th being cooler than normal. I am watching the potential of an upper level low setting up over Sakhalin Island which will provide us with an extended period of below normal temperatures. I believe it’s sensing the pattern, just placing it a week early as it doesn’t match the Bering Sea Rule showing a ridge for the middle of October.

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7th.  This translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Haters Gonna Hate

If it’s one thing over the years that I’ve taken since utilizing my Bering Sea Rule and the Typhoon Rule to forecast is that people who have no understanding of how I am able to do such a complicated endeavor with a simplistic approach will try everything they can to discredit me via social media.

 

In Internet slang, a troll (/ˈtrl/, /ˈtrɒl/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people,[1] by posting inflammatory,[2]extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.[4]

 

My tenure on the Accuweather.com Forums as one of the supermoderators has produced a thick skin of sorts when it comes to trolls.  You name it, I’ve been called it. There’s been multiple times that I say something and hear from both sides of the argument on how I am supporting the other.

The latest has been regarding the ‘Typhoon Rule’ and 16-W, or better known as Tropical System Fung-wong.  Despite all of the data that I provide on a weekly basis in the form of a forecast utilizing this pattern recognition technique, I had a few lovely twitter debates going on how someone else interprets the data.

 

For the past week I have been watching Fung-wong and it’s response to the jet stream as it gained longitude. On the 18th, I told a meteorologist friend of mine in Central Indiana by the name of Michael Clark, that he needed to pay attention to the fact that Fung-wong was going through two different recurves and it will be huge on the models since we don’t have “hurricane hunters” in the Western Pacific to investigate.

 

The modeling followed suit and just couldn’t figure it out.  The first recurve was always suppose to happen along the North coast of Luzon, Philippines.  After that, it would travel North trying to erode a ridge to it’s North but was shreaded apart for multple reasons and was going to weaken.  We are left with a tropical storm that is loosing it’s moxie and will be picked up by the next trough in a few days splitting the uprights between South Korea and Japan.

I created this yesterday morning showing the 2nd recurve, my long range forecast on the 18th of September and finally…the GFS 500mb std anomaly.

Fung_wong

 

It’s all related!

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18SEPT14 Long Range Forecast

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

In the West Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Fung-wong approaching the island of Luzon as it curves Northerly barely missing Taiwan due to being latched into a trough over East Asia.  Y’all know that means Central Missouri will experience a cooler period around the 26th before another quick ridge develops as evident by the cyclone not making another curve to the Northeast until the 23rd. Then another trough picks it up.  This will translate to Central Missouri experiencing a slight warm up around the 27th into the 29th before another cooler period hits us for October.  My thoughts are still that it will be roughly October 2nd when that happens. Then zonal flow follows for a moderation of temperatures.

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and won’t let go until the 23rd of September for the Bering Sea Rule.  We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th.  This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October.  This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over.  Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Records Broken

Hey everyone!

 

I came across this record event report by the National Weather Service in St. Louis.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBIA MISSOURI TODAY...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM WAS SET AT COLUMBIA REGIONAL AIRPORT TODAY
SEPTEMBER 11TH.  THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 64 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1902.


The key note from this is our maximum temperature was reached at 00:54 cdt, or 12:54 AM! As you can see below, the temperature kept dropping until roughly 2:54 PM and it attempted to warm up to no avail and not breaking the 60° mark!!
11SEP14_History

 

Our normal high for September 11th is 81° with a low of 59° for the mean of 70°.  Looking at the data…our high matched what the low was last year!

 

11SEP14_Daily

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