Monthly Archives: October 2014

The ‘Tonight Show’ For Weathergeeks!

Yes…I am tentatively scheduled for a December 1st  interview on WeatherBrains as a “Guest Panelist”.

Weatherbrains

 

For those who don’t know what the WeatherBrains show is…it is the “who’s who” of weather talking about what they love…the weather!

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

This is a great opportunity for me to advocate the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to get out to the masses and throw in a little bit of Rossby Wave action for good measure!

(1065)

North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Word of Caution…Part 3

Starting on September 28th, I let everyone know that they needed to be careful in various winter forecast that focus on the above normal anomalies in the Northeast Pacific and how it will dictate this winter much like they did last year.

Here were the SST anomalies back on September 25th.

09252014_SST

 

Here is the latest data…

27OCT14_SST

 

Just in case you can’t see the “depth” of the color hues, this graphic will help you much more…

22OCT14_SST_Monthly_Change

 

One can make the argument on how the SST’s in the NE Pacific are “technically” still above normal.  However, the trend is undeniable and spot on to why I urged caution!  This will have a significant impact on the upper air pattern at 500mb or 18289ft.  Instead of  a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska like we had last year, we will start to see a trough.  Let me be clear in stating that in no way am I saying it will be a warmer than normal winter!  Far from the truth as we are seeing multiple signals that are showing a volatile pattern shaping up with extremes on one end and the other.

 

Basically…I guess what I am attempting to say is that those who banked this winter on the above normal temperatures early on are going to be wrong if the trend continues.

(1707)

November Thoughts On Track

As more data comes in, it becomes aparent that the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules are tried and true.

 

10OCT14 Long Range Discussion

One or two days below normal temperatures until the 17th of October, or late in the first week of November for us, as a trough breaks down the original ridge and then another ridge comes in it’s heals until the 20thThe GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Bering Sea Section

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27th.  For Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

Typhoon Rule Section

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22ndwe have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

24OCT14 Long Range Discussion…

The Bering Sea will continue the progressive pattern that was advertised last week.  A system moves through it’s forecast area between the 25th and 27th of October.  Heights immediately respond with warmth building between another storm at the end of the month and beginning of November. Just like the prior though, ridging comes in like a lion and warms us up.  The timeline of events for Central Missouri in response is as such.  There will be storms during November 14th and 16th, then warming from November 16th through the 18th with a shortwave between November 19th and 21st and another ridge after November 22nd.

Look for the reds to continue to be shown on the North American Ensemble Forecast System, NAEFS, as time moves along.

NAEFS_28OCT14

 

Key point is the NAEFS model does not show the actual anomalies, but the chances of either above/near/below normal temperatures.  So…we have an 80%-90% chance of above normal temperatures from November 5th-November 12th.

The CFS v2 shows the cool period to start out in week one, then a gradual warming period in week two per the “normal temperature” anomalies.

27OCT14_CFS_Week1&2

Look out for week 3 and 4 though!

27OCT14_CFS_Week3&4

 

(985)

Halloween Time Period

Hey there everyone!  As if you couldn’t guess…Sunday, Sunday, Sunday is the easiest day for me to catch up on all things weather since it’s the only day off from my actual day job.

 

02OCT14 Long Range Discussion Bering Sea Section…

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th.  However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st.

 

Yes…the timing was a tad off with the cold front coming through with the forecast on 02OCT14.  The heat lasted two days longer than I envisioned.

 

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section…

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

26OCT14_4day

Towards the end of the period, there is a system that stalls in the plains and won’t come through until roughly the 5th of November.

26OCT14_7day

 

(790)

Warm Up? Who Knew?

What a beautiful couple of days we’ve had in Central Missouri with yet today and tomorrow to continue the trend!  I will admit that I did not go into very good detail regarding this post below.  The fault is simple…I was assuming that mostly all of those who read my post would understand what I was saying.

 

18SEP14 Long Range Discussion

 

This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over. Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

First…our normals for October…

October_Normals

 

The latest weather story from St. Louis National Weather Service office…

LSX_Weather_Story

Yes…I know it’s for their forecast area as a whole…but the premise holds true.  We are looking at high temperatures to be almost 20° above normal!

26SEP14_Forecast

(628)

24OCT14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is showing a system move through East Asia on October 26th with ridging following between October 27th and 29th.  This will line up with a storm on the 2nd of November with ridging between the 3rd and 6th of November here in Columbia.  Then, another system hits East Asia on November 5th and that matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November.

The Bering Sea will continue the progressive pattern that was advertised last week.  A system moves through it’s forecast area between the 25th and 27th of October.  Heights immediately respond with warmth building between another storm at the end of the month and beginning of November. Just like the prior though, ridging comes in like a lion and warms us up.  The timeline of events for Central Missouri in response is as such.  There will be storms during November 14th and 16th, then warming from November 16th through the 18th with a shortwave between November 19th and 21st and another ridge after November 22nd.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

(458)

NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Yesterday I attended a weather themed conference in St. Louis to “pitch” the Bering Sea Rule to other meteorologist, and scientist,  in the field. 

pic_shot_1413912295269

pic_shot_1413912218712

FB_IMG_1413891580029

 Below is the information about what it entailed…

NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop will beheld in St. Louis, Missouri during 20-23 October 2014. The workshop will address the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, and will focus on five major themes:

  1. Prediction, monitoring, and variability of the hydroclimate with an emphasis on the Midwest during the growing season.

  2. The prediction, attribution, and assessment of extreme events.

  3. Sub-seasonal to interannual predictability.

  4. Latest developments in models, tools, and techniques in relation to improving climate prediction.

  5. Developing applications to improve climate services.

The workshop will be hosted by St. Louis University (SLU) and co-hosted by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is a cooperating sponsor.

The workshop will feature daytime oral presentations, invited speakers, and panel discussions with a poster session event on one evening. For students, some travel support and discounted registration might be available if budget allows.

IMG_20141022_090834

pic_shot_1413896718653

The oral presentations started out on a great note with a few overviews on the Winter of 2013/2014, which averaged at -5.266 here in Columbia!  The other 22 oral presentations that I listened to were amazing and I learned more than I ever thought I would an, as such, am hooked on future conferences to take part in!

IMG_20141021_163529

Above is the Bering Sea Rule research team’s poster right before the doors were opened for the attendees to move from poster to poster asking questions.  The doors were opened approximately around 6:15pm and I didn’t leave until 8:20pm.  During the poster session, I explained our research to roughly a dozen people.  The feedback was upbeat and a few of them even gave me suggestions on how to “elevate” the research with various tools available that I wasn’t aware of.

Needless to say, it was an experience that I will never forget and during down time, I was reading a great book from an Metamora Township High School Class of ’92 alumni of mine, Kathryn Miles titled, Super Storm Nine Days Inside Hurricane Sandy.  A must read!

IMG_20141021_035741

(730)

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion

First things first…I need to apologize for the wording of my 10OCT14 Long Range Discussion.  Since I wasn’t specific on various line items, it was very confusing…even to me.  The outlook from 02OCT14 is on track.

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27th.  For Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

(574)

Finally…the September Verification Forecast

Well…My sincerest apologies on not getting this out in a decent amount of time.  Let’s shoot from the hip.

 

07AUG14 Long Range Discussion

After the Omega Ridge is broken down by the system to the West of the Bering Sea, we have slight riding between the 8th and 9th of August as a system develops to the Southwest.  This system will move through between August 10th and 13th, which gives Central Missouri below normal temperatures between August 30th and September 2nd. Another shortwave rotates in from the northwest and reinforces the cooler temperatures between the 18th and 20th of August keeping them in Central Missouri until the 4th of September.

The result…

04SEP14

Central Missouri is in the .5° –  1.0° above normal. Not only that, but you can see that all around us the temperatures are warmer.

 

16AUG14 Long Range Discussion

We are continuing the same pattern over and over in the Bering Sea which shows that it will be under a continuous Northwest flow.  That means below normal temperatures up until the first of September there and translating to below normal temperatures until mid-September. It’s debatable as to the main impact, but I can guarantee that it won’t be like the first half of last September where we were 4 degrees above normal until the 16th!

The result…

14SEP14

 

As you can see, the time period between the 5th and 14th of September we were between 2.5° and 3.0° below normal.

28AUG14 Long Range Discussion part 1…

The Alaska Extended Discussion yesterday brought up how they were seeing a “fall-like” pattern develop in their 4-8 day range.  This translates to Central MO enjoying the same pattern the 17th through the 21st of September.

The result is spot on…

20SEP14

28AUG14 Long Range Discussion part 2…

We will experience a quick warm up on the 21st and then zonal flow follows until September 26th.

26SEP14

 

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

30SEP14

 

Once again, the Bering Sea Rule has shown that there is a reason why I am taking the bsr to NOAA’s 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Poster

 

Overall score…an A- for the early call of below normal even though we were cooler than those around us.

(450)

Where Are The Brazilian Model Huggers?

In the meteorological community, there are quite a few that love posting the Brazilian model when it shows cold and snow for the upcoming winter.  Of course, to show their bias…they don’t show the model when it shows warmth.  Just wait until it gets closer to winter and you will see a flurry of Facebook ‘shares’ and/or Twitter ‘retweets’ of those specific meteorologist and enthusiast alike.

 

Below are the 500mb and surface temperature anomalies for the Dec-Jan-February period in North America from the updated model this month.

500mb

Brazilian_500mb

 

Surface

Brazilian

All things considered…the surface and 500mb charts don’t match up.  If the lower anomalies over Upper Midwest and Great Lakes were to be taken seriously, that area of the country would not be seeing the slightly above normal temperatures as seen on the surface chart.  Both coast though would conceivably see above normal temperatures per the 500mb chart though.

(884)