Yes…I know that November is basically over before I performed some verification of how I did in October. Nature of the beast I say!
Here are the statistics from the Columbia Regional Airport, or COU.
03SEP14 Long Range Discussion…
All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough. Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September. This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.
The beginning of October started 10° above normal on the first and by the 4th we were 13° below normal with the passage of a double cold front on the 3rd. Sandborn Field hit the high for October 3rd at 12:01am of 59.4° as the temperature just kept dropping like a rock to 46.8° at 1pm!
11SEP14 Long Range Discussion…
We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September. Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe. Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea. This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.
This, of course, is the initial view of the models in their long range period. Just like in the CONUS, they were having problems in bringing the ridging too quickly.
18SEP14 Long Range Discussion…
The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and won’t let go until the 23rdof September for the Bering Sea Rule. We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th. This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October. This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over. Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.
Here is the calendar which the research student produced after reading the long range forecasting of both they typhoon and bering sea rules…
As you can see, I flipped my forecast on the 9th-14th because the timing issue was resolved. It was still 3 weeks in advance of the upcoming pattern.
25SEP14 Long Range Discussion…
The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7th. This translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.
I missed the mark on this one.
Following up though…it was skewed by October 25th through the 27th as we averaged 8° above normal for those three days!
Overall…I give myself a B- due to the call of a cooler than normal last two weeks.
EDIT: In my haste to produce this verification, I forgot to include the 02OCT14 Long Range Discussion…
The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th. However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st. Central Missouri will begin November on a cold note. A quick ridge develops on the 14th due to a system in the Sea of Okhotsk and then it throws multiple systems after the 15th. So…looking at the first week of November being below normal.
Here are the updated maps…
You can clearly see the warming trend to our West right before it got here between the 23rd and 25th.
Due to the 26th and 27th being 17° above normal on both days, the last graphic is skewed. My friends at work were very thankful that I was telling them at the beginning of the month how they needed to bundle up their kids for Halloween!