Monthly Archives: November 2014

Early December Storm

While performing my duties on the Accuweather.com forums, I was looking through the December 7-10th Plains/MW/OV/GL thread and it dawned on me. This was during my lull of action and I needed to check and see how it correlated to the BSR.

 

Here is the correlation map that we have been utilizing to “fine tune” where we believe the BSR matches up with the CONUS.

bsrx1

The red star is Columbia and the orange star is SE CT.  Below is the 48hr surface map archived from the 15th of November.

07DEC14_Storm

Note the positioning of the two low pressure systems along the Aleutian Island chain.  The main system is at 978mb and strengthening with a another 993mb along the front to it’s SE moving NNE.

Now look at the Day 6 map from the Weather Prediction Center, WPC.  Knowing that 20 days forward from the 17th of November is the 7th of December.

 

06DEC14_DAY6

 

Followed by Day 7

07DEC14_DAY7

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October Verification

Yes…I know that November is basically over before I performed some verification of how I did in October.  Nature of the beast I say!

Here are the statistics from the Columbia Regional Airport, or COU.

OCT_COU

 

03SEP14 Long Range Discussion

All models agree that a trough will be in the Bering Sea until September 8th with a sub-Aleutian low being created, in part, by a system traveling the Southwest side of the trough.  Heights will respond in kind and a ridge will show up over the Kamchatka Peninsula until the 13th of September.  This will mean that we see warming at the end of September and beginning of October for the KOPN listening area.

The beginning of October started 10° above normal on the first and by the 4th we were 13° below normal with the passage of a double cold front on the 3rd. Sandborn Field hit the high for October 3rd at 12:01am of 59.4° as the temperature just kept dropping like a rock to 46.8° at 1pm!

03OCT14

11SEP14 Long Range Discussion

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September.  Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe.  Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea.  This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

This, of course, is the initial view of the models in their long range period. Just like in the CONUS, they were having problems in bringing the ridging too quickly.

18SEP14 Long Range Discussion

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and won’t let go until the 23rdof September for the Bering Sea Rule.  We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th.  This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October.  This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over.  Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Here is the calendar which the research student produced after reading the long range forecasting of both they typhoon and bering sea rules…

18SEP2014_Long Range

As you can see, I flipped my forecast on the 9th-14th because the timing issue was resolved. It was still 3 weeks in advance of the upcoming pattern.

09OCT_14OCT

25SEP14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7thThis translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

I missed the mark on this one.

15OCT_31OCT

Following up though…it was skewed by October 25th through the 27th as we averaged 8° above normal for those three days!

25OCT_27OCT

 

Overall…I give myself a B- due to the call of a cooler than normal last two weeks.

 

 

EDIT: In my haste to produce this verification, I forgot to include the 02OCT14 Long Range Discussion

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th.  However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st. Central Missouri will begin November on a cold note.  A quick ridge develops on the 14th due to a system in the Sea of Okhotsk and then it throws multiple systems after the 15th.  So…looking at the first week of November being below normal.

Here are the updated maps…

15OCT14-22OCT14

15OCT_22OCT

You can clearly see the warming trend to our West right before it got here between the 23rd and 25th.

23OCT_25OCT

 

Due to the 26th and 27th being 17° above normal on both days, the last graphic is skewed.  My friends at work were very thankful that I was telling them at the beginning of the month how they needed to bundle up their kids for Halloween!

26OCT_31OCT

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28NOV14 Long Range Discussion Follow Up

So…after I went to have some Thai food at Chim’s here in Downtown Columbia, I decided to look at the long range modeling to see if we were in agreement on the long range forecast.

Here is the NAEFS as it was showing the warmth back on the 24th of November.

24NOV14_NAEFS

 

As you can see, it’s for the period of December 2nd through December 9th.  As I stated in the ‘A Warming Trend On The Way’ post

As I’ve discussed before, these are the probabilities of being above normal for the period.  So…we have a 60%-70% chance of above normal temperatures between December 2nd and December 9th.

Earlier today, I discussed how the progression of systems would happen in the later period of the above graphic…

All models converge on a system in the beginning of December through December 7th over East Asia with Mid Missouri effects are a cold front on the 8th with two more on the 10thand 12th.

It’s related graphic…

26NOV14_NAEFS

Going from above normal probabilities to average in our region of the country and below normal to our SE tells me there are a series of cold fronts that break down the above normal temperatures to moderate for us.

 

Note the trend though…

Then, zonal flow will follow with warming on the 14th until another cold front on the 16th.

Look to our West…yes, those are above normal percentages moving back towards Mid-Missouri.

28NOV14_NAEFS

 

 

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28NOV14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

All models converge on a system in the beginning of December through December 7th over East Asia with Mid Missouri effects are a cold front on the 8th with two more on the 10th and 12th. Then, zonal flow will follow with warming on the 14th until another cold front on the 16th.  The same upper level low will pump up a ridge in the Southwest Bering Sea at the beginning of December as highlighted below.

A quick moving system enters the Bering Sea on December 1st with warming immediately through the 4th.  Then an upper level low rotates from the Northeast and stays in the region until December 6th at least.  This means the chance of a white Christmas is there and colder than normal temperatures continue until the end of the month.  Also…keeping in mind there is a sudden stratospheric warming event in process over Siberia and could lead to even colder temperatures than progged right now.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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A Warming Trend On The Way

In my lapse of postings due to my personal life just going bonkers, I have not been able to provide the KOPN faithful listeners and blog readers what was going to happen in the first week of December. I sincerely apologize!

 

With out further delay…

 

Here is the latest NAEFS 8-15 day outlook.

24NOV14_NAEFS

 

As I’ve discussed before, these are the probabilities of being above normal for the period.  So…we have a 60%-70% chance of above normal temperatures between December 2nd and December 9th.

 

Here are the teleconnection forecast as provided by the Earth Systems Research Library…please excuse the bad artwork. 😉

24NOV14_ESRL_4PANEL

 

Whenever we see above normal index values of the WPO, EPO, and NAO…that is a sure sign of an above normal period on the way.

 

Let’s see what the BSR was showing 13th of November, which correlates to the 3rd of December.

14NOV14_500mb_Pac

Beautiful SW flow coming into the Bering Sea as an upper level low spins to the East of Sakhalin Island pumping up a ridge over Shemya Island, or 52.71°N 174.13°E. Shemya correlates to Springfield, MO by the way!

 

However, all good things must come to an end.

16NOV14_500mb_PAC

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El Niño Update

Hello everyone!

 

So…here we are in the middle of November looking at the status of the ENSO.  I have been telling people here in Central Missouri since October 19th “officially” that it will be a “backloaded” winter.  One of those reasons is because of a slowly developing El Niño.  So…let’s look at the current state. Before that, here are the ENSO regions that we look at for such.

El_Nino_Regions

 

Below you see a combination of graphs of the temperature for each region of the ENSO.

20NOV14_Tropicaltidbits_SST

 

As you can see, the obs are fairly close to each other.

  • 1.02 = Region 1+2
  • 1.27 = Region 3
  • 1.07 = Region 3.4…ENSO identifier
  • 1.05 = Region 4

Looking closer at the 3.4 graph, we have been above +.5 since the beginning of the month.  With that in mind…lets dig deeper…

 

Here are the TAO numbers…

20NOV14_TAO

 

16NOV14_CPC_20c_Anomaly

 

As you can see above, warmer anomalies of the 20° C isotherm traverse across the equatorial Pacific from West to East in association with a Oceanic Kelvin Wave.  Take note how the above normal anomalies have hit a brick wall past 90°W after mid-September.

 

Now look at the animation below…

wkxzteq_anm

 

Cooler than normal sub-surface anomalies have hampered the progression of the above normal trend past 100°W as it is attacked from below. Just how far East the current Kelvin Wave makes it will be determined by that pool of cooler waters at 100°W.  Region 3 is a shoe in regardless and the impending result is a warmer signal.

 

That being said…look for a transition to colder than normal temperatures roughly mid-late December as the surface anomalies increase and move Westward…which, per my last El Niño post, shows colder anomalies.

 

Also…on the hype about the Super El Niño that was forecasted back in March and April…found an interesting tidbit, page 16,  in that the TAO buoys data availability was at a mere 28% in March.  The common theme of “garbage in-garbage out” applies here as it’s obvious that missing that much data screwed up the ingestion of information into said models that were predicting a Super El Niño!

 

 

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No Sugar Coating Here…I WAS WRONG!

When it comes to the weather community you will find multiple sources attempt to “finagle” their way around admitting they are wrong with a forecast.  We can blame the models all we want..but it comes down to how you, the forecaster, interprets said models.

 

10OCT14 Long Range Forecast

The GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

19OCT14 Long Range Forecast Bering Sea Section…

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works.  An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd.  The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27thFor Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between.  Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us.  The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

 

19OCT14 Long Range Discussion Typhoon Rule Section…

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast.  On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri.  Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe.  Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over.  So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

 

I have to give props to Larry Cosgrove because he did not believe the models, per his October 25th Long Range Forecast newsletter, on their depiction of a warm month.

It wasn’t until the beginning of November when Typhoon Nuri’s track and strength were correctly forecast that the meteorological community, as a whole, was having a wake up moment. You see, once Nuri was correctly being forecast, it was a three pronged attack of cold.

 

Typhoon Nuri went through two recurves. The first was roughly the 2nd of November and the second was on the 5th.  That translated to a cold front passage on the 9th/10th and 11th/12th.  Due to Nuri off to the races per the forecast distance of the 5th and 6th, it’s evident that the trough was stronger and cold air was going to respond.  Then, the real time influences took place.  Once Post-Tropical Nuri bombed in the Bering Sea, a ridge was created stretching from the Aleutian Island chain into the interior of Alaska.  That allowed the floodgates to open and force cold air that was being built up in the Arctic to come spilling down through Canada, and eventually, into Central Missouri.

 

Below you will see the teleconnection forecast from 29OCT14.

ESRL_4_Panel_29OCT14

As you can see, we have a neutral PNA, positive NAO, WPO, and EPO from November 6th-12th.  That is clearly a warm signal as I’ve shown in the past.  I will leave this post on a note of not coming down on myself too hard…It’s research and there are bound to be bust and accomplishments.  The end result is all that matters in my attempt to have a better system to incorporate into the model packages so that we don’t have a situation like this again.

 

“Progress before perfection!”

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What’s All The Commotion About With Typhoon Nuri?

Hey there everyone,

 

For those who have seen, or heard, my long range forecast that I put out there on Monday, the weakening Typhoon Nuri has been creating quite a buzz in the weather world as of late.  Why might you ask?  After moving past Japan, it will merge with a few other low pressure systems that are over the Sea of Okhotsk to create a meteorological bomb in the Southwest Bering Sea.

Bomb: Popular expression of a rapid intensification of a cyclone (low pressure) with surface pressure expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hour.

As it stands right now, the leading arms of NOAA are forecast this storm to be a 924mb monster once it arrives in the SW Bering Sea and will drop 54mb in 24 hours!

05NOV14_OPC_48hr

 

For comparison purposes, a 924mb storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season would equal a CAT4 in pressure and CAT2 in winds when utilizing the Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

Since this is an awesome case study for both the Typhoon and Bering Sea Rules, I performed some quick digging on impressive storms in the Bering Sea.  From the WUnderground blog I came up with these dates…

April 6, 2011

April_7_2011_bsr

The correlation…

27APR11_temp_anomalies

All I can say is…thank goodness this isn’t in the spring for what happened during the four days of 25th-28th.

110425_rpts

110426_rpts

110427_rpts

Let’s throw in October 25th, 1977 with 925mb

oct1977zoom

 

November 12-13, 1977 temperature anomalies

13NOV77_anomalies

 

So…I am looking at a substantial warm up just prior to the Thanksgiving Holiday per the latest long range discussion with a good chance of severe weather and cold to follow.

 

In the Typhoon Rule scheme of things, we are looking at temperatures averaging between 15° and 20° below normal.  That would place us fighting to break 40° on Veterans Day!

Veterans_Day_DAY6_MAX_ANOM_wbg

 

November 12th

Nov_12_DAY7_MAX_ANOM_wbg

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03NOV14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Nuri is going to create quite a stir both in the Typhoon and Bering Sea Rules.  It will miss the initial trough on the 4th, but be picked up on the 6th.  This means we will see a cold front both on the 11th and 13th with warming between.  After then, systems move through on the 8th, 12th, and 15th with Central Missouri impacts on the 15th, 19th, and 22nd.  I still believe we will see warm ups between, but they will be gradual this time around.

The Bering Sea is in for the roughest ride since 1977 with the remnants of Nuri bombing out, a 24mb drop in 24 hours, in the short term.  We have a system on the 4th with ridging right before Nuri comes to play on the 7th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front come through on the 24th and a impressive warm up until the 27th.  Look for the trough to stay put until at least the 12th in the Bering Sea, which means it will be a cold Thanksgiving for the Central United States as a whole!

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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