Monthly Archives: December 2014

ENSO Update

Hello everyone!

 

With the new year only a mere hours away, I have decided to look at the various ENSO indicies that we look at.

Take a look at my post from a little bit over a month ago.  The Kelvin Wave was hitting a brick wall in cooler than normal anomalies in the subsurface region of 90°W.  As a result, the Region 1+2 section took a nose dive…

nino12

 

Other regions in December weren’t fairing too well either…

nino4

nino34

 

Let’s look at the subsurface as of 24DEC14…

wkxzteq_anm

 

As you can see, the Kelvin Wave was still moving towards the East. Per the Region 1+2 graphic above, you can see a recovery.  This recovery will move into the .5° anomaly and, mixed with the steady Region 3, shows the Modoki calls are without cause!  Also, note how Region 4 and 3.4 focusing that region 3.4 is how the Climate Prediction Center determines El Niño.  Yet, Region 3 is steady as a rock.  I can see Region 3 spiking soon with the warmest subsurface anomalies being right below it.

nino3

 

An East Central Based El Niño looks to be in the cards for the first part of January.  Come after the 15th, the Kelvin Wave will loose it’s moxie and we will see cooling yet again.  I am looking at a very active, cold, and snowy late January through March as a result.

Please take a moment and read the weekly ENSO update on the CPC website here in pdf form!

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28DEC14 Long Range Discussion

Due to the audio computer being down, there won’t be any audio available for the Long Range Discussion today.

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has a system impacting Japan today with slight ridging before another system on the 30th.  A potent trough takes over and more energy comes from the Northwest on New Year’s Day.  Then, zonal flow takes over before a slow ridging and storm on the 5th of January. The trough that follows hangs around to at least the 9th of January.  For Central Missouri, this means a storm on January 4th with slight warm up before another storm on the 6th when the cold shot hits and a clipper comes down the pipe on January 7th.  A gradual warm up ensues until the next storm on January 12th with more cold to follow until at least January 16th.

The Bering Sea shows a parade of storms with quick ridging between systems.  Looking at a storm today that travels just South of the Aleutian Island chain until another storm is to our West on New Years Eve.  Another potent system follows on it’s heals on the 2nd of January. This translates for Central Missouri as a few warm storms on January 17th, 19th, and 22nd.  If these systems move East more than they are forecasted, Central Missouri will be in the cold sector and snow will be the result.  Look for severe weather down South to be an issue on the 22nd system.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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Cold End of December Was Foretold!!!

From my post on November 28th…

 

A quick moving system enters the Bering Sea on December 1st with warming immediately through the 4th.  Then an upper level low rotates from the Northeast and stays in the region until December 6th at least.  This means the chance of a white Christmas is there and colder than normal temperatures continue until the end of the month.  Also…keeping in mind there is a sudden stratospheric warming event in process over Siberia and could lead to even colder temperatures than progged right now.

 

Now…the white Christmas was a day off as we had some backend snow move into the area on Christmas Eve.  As for the below normal temperatures after, this is what the Climate Prediction Center had forecasted on December 17th…

814temp.20141217.fcst

 

and again on the 20th…

610temp.20141220.fcst

 

Below is the next 7 days via St. Louis NWS…

26DEC14_7_Day Forecast

Keep in mind our average highs this time period is 39° and average low is 22°. A quick calculation of the forecasted high averages comes to 38.5° which is obviously skewed due to the 60° today and a midnight forecasted high of 44° tomorrow morning while the temperature falls during the day.

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White Christmas Nailbitter

Man alive…talk about cutting it close!

 

28NOV14 Long Range Discussion

A quick moving system enters the Bering Sea on December 1st with warming immediately through the 4thThen an upper level low rotates from the Northeast and stays in the region until December 6th at least.  This means the chance of a white Christmas is there and colder than normal temperatures continue until the end of the month.

Xmas_Snow

 

The WPC Winter Weather website provides a great resource to us weather geeks on the chances of snow and ice.  As you can see, Central Missouri (and a small swath in North Central Illinois) has a 40-50% probability of snowfall exceeding the depicted amount (≥1in) in the enclosed area.

 

Below you will find out how they determine said forecast…

21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members
25 ECMWF ensemble members, randomly selected

1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest operational run
1 Canadian Model (CMC) latest operational run
1 ECMWF latest ensemble mean
1 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) latest ensemble mean (6-h SLRs)
5 NCEP GEFS members, randomly selected
___

 

57 Total members
I will be traveling back home to Central Illinois between the 24th and 28th.
Merry Christmas and a happy new year!

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20DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule shows a massive upper level low developing over the Sea of Ohktosk until the 24th of December from the parent system on the 19th.  During this time period, multiple systems will rotate around it on the 21st until a new system dives from the Northwest on the 24th.  So, look for Central Missouri to have the main storm on the day after Christmas with snow chances on December 28th and New Year’s Eve.

The Bering Sea has ridging starting the period until the 23rd of December, when a strong storm hits.  This storm has me worried about a severe weather outbreak for the Deep South and Tennessee Valley while we get snow on January 12th.  On the 26th and 27th of December we have another strong storm moving into the Southwestern Bering Sea and once it moves into the Central areas, it will stay until the new year.  That translates to a storm on January 15th and cold northwest flow follows afterwards.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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13DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule has our 15th system move through the Sea of Japan before transferring to the East coast of Japan.  This is our pre-christmas storm which will provide us with a white Christmas.  A ensuing cold period follows until a spike in temperatures before the 20th system.  This translates to Central Missouri experiencing a gradual warm up between Christmas and December 28th when a significant jump in temperatures takes place.  The model spread is too great to go beyond the 28th utilizing the Typhoon Rule.

The Bering Sea shows a strong storm developing on the 15th.  We then see a gradual warming trend until a spike in temperatures prior to an even stronger storm on the 18th of December.  This translates to a strong storm around January 7th here.  My personal thoughts are that this will provide areas of the North Central Plains with a significant snowstorm and well above normal temperatures for Central Missouri prior to it. Northwest flow follows with cold air until the 10th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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05DEC14 Long Range Discussion

 

Hello everyone,

 

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule still has the trough over East Asia for the next couple of days. A new shortwave will travel through there on the 8th of December with a quick recovery on the 9th and 10th before another system comes through on the 12th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front move through on the 16th and 20th of December with warming between.  The storms that have my attention are on the 15th and 17th in East Asia for those will give us a chance of a white Christmas.

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

 

 

 

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