Monthly Archives: August 2015

Mid-September Update

Hello all!

 

Taken from my post on August 17th…

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

Here are the European Weeklies from August 21st showing 500mb heights.

 

 

Note the upper heights in the NE Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.  Now, look at the Week 4 for the CONUS.

 

 

Trough in the Plains with heat in the Southeast.  At that point I believed it had the pattern, but couldn’t grasp the implications.

Lo, and behold, week 3 shows what I’m talking about…

 

The heat expands up the East Coast to Canada and includes Texas.  Also, note that the below normal departures have gotten larger in the Dakota’s.

 

 

EDIT:  A friend of mine let me know that I couldn’t post the weeklies.  Thanks Al!

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Dual Typhoons Again?!

Hey everyone,

 

Once again we are hearing chatter about two typhoons in the Western Pacific!

 

Typhoon Goni moves progressively West as it gets stronger reaching Supertyphoon status on the 20th at 130kts with maximum gust up to 160kts before gaining latitude between Luzon and Taiwan.

Goni

Typhoon Atsanti gains latitude, in part, due to an upper level low situated over the Japanese Island of Hokkaido.

Atsani

 

Now…the importance is straightforward if y’all have followed me over time.

 

The rule is quite simple and applies all year round!  If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later.  How does this apply all year you ask?  Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other.  Cold fronts aren’t seasonally dependant like typhoons are…they happen all year round!  The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China.  That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.

 

As of this writing, we are seeing both typhoons recurving.  Goni gets absorbed in an upper level low over the Korean Peninsula while Atsanti gets slingshot into another system over Sakhalin Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula.  Let’s take a look at what the 6-10 day forecast looks like via the Climate Prediction Center…

17AUG610day

 

On a side note…keep an eye out for the implications of Atsanti once it arrives in the Western Bering Sea.  It helps to pump up a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea which, in turn, will cause some major heat to hit the East Coast ~16th of September!

 

 

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It’s All Related!

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I am sure that y’all are seeing in the mainstream media how former Super Typhoon SOUDELOR is heading towards Taiwan,  and eventually,  mainland China.  The significance is that it teleconnects to a ridge in the eastern third of the lower 48 in 6-10 days depending on the set up in Japan.

Low and behold,  look at the CPC outlook…

6-10 day temperatures

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Here is the 8-14 day outlook…

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The above normal chances diminish in the Plains and the below normal chances diminish in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  The significance is that the heat from the Plains earlier moves east to bring those areas closer to normal.

Right on SOUDELOR’s heals is Invest 96W. Unlike SOUDELOR,  it is to recurve by the system that eventually picks up it’s big brother in China.  The net result is we will see a strong cold front push through in the 3rd week of August.

So,  the background to this post is on the 25th of July a good friend approached me for a forecast on the 15th of August in the Quad Cities region of IA/IL. I took a look and saw this in the North Pacific…

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Now look at our research team’s data points superimposed over the same area.

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The WPC 500mb day 7 forecast shows a 594mb high centered on the Kiowa Grasslands of NM/OK/TX.

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Note the trough in Northern California which will push the ridge east by the 15th.

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Upcoming Conferences

Hello everyone!

 

An update as to what is going on with the Bering Sea Rule research is in order!  We have submitted our abstract for oral presentation to NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s 40th Diagnostic Workshop being held in Denver this October and the American Meteorological Society 96th Annual Meeting being held in New Orleans this upcoming January.

 

Our introduction…

Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range forecasts II: Predictability of Extreme and Severe Weather

The Bering Sea Rule (BSR) has been shown to be an effective long range forecasting tool. One can find 8-14 day and monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation through the Climate Prediction Center. However, there are no forecast tools for looking at the possibility of extreme,  or severe,  weather past mid-range forecasts, or about eight days courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center. Computer models are also not able to forecast effectively beyond the seven to 15 day range in the PNA region, as dynamic predictability diminishes severely. Utilizing three important data collection points in the Pacific and over the continental United States, and the Bering Sea Rule, forecasts that perform better than climatology can be obtained.  Using autocorrelation and fourier analysis of the PNA Index,  we find a strong 20 to 30 day oscillation that would correspond to the BSR. These statistical techniques also show some promise for the identification of potential extreme,  or severe,  weather events beyond the dynamic forecasting range. Thus these forecasts would be of interest to the government, energy, agriculture, and other sectors in identifying the potential for severe weather.

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Rossby Wave Train and The BSR

Hello everyone!

 

My good friend and research partner, Josh Herman, has developed some interesting tools in our attempt to make the connection of the Bering Sea Rule to the Reoccuring Rossby Wave Train.

 

Look here for his blog post…

http://osnw3isorr.blogspot.com/

 

and here for the tools…

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/index.html

 

We were discussing how the cycle that we are seeing the high frequency matching ~37 days and the low frequency going for ~70.  With that I decided to go to the Weather Prediction Center’s qpf archives and this is what I found.

 

wpid-wp-1438720545589.gif

 

The above is the 7 day precipitation forecast for the lower 48 with a start date of June 29th, 2015.  Note the monsoonal flow into the desert sw, rainfall in the Dakota’s and traveling down the Missouri River Valley, deluge in the heart of “Little Egypt” region of the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence spreading up the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast, and a system off of the North Carolina coast.

 

 

 

Now take a look at the 7 day forecast from August 4th.wpid-wp-1438720525164.gif

 

Disbelief

 

 

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