Monthly Archives: November 2015

Late November-Early December Storm Update

Hello everyone!

It’s been 10 days since my last post regarding the Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities.  Needless to say, it has become more interesting.  First, let me show that the very next day after my post here, I posted this on the Accuweather Forums.

Once again, I posted a blog before looking at everything in front of me as this is what I did immediately following my post here on the 12th.

Here is the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day analog set…

The explanation of what the dates on the lower right mean…

Do we remember what that storm for #1 analog is?  I do…My family just moved to the Northeast side of Columbia, MO in September of 2006.  Jeff Huffman was the morning meteorologist on KMIZ and was warning everyone just how significant this storm was going to be.  I measured 17″ of snow in my backyard and witnessed thundersnow on multiple occasions.

Let me be clear that in no way am I saying the the Central US will see results like this again almost to the day…

Here are  a few 12z 22NOV15 Model results…

GFS

European for November 30th

European for December 1st

Here are the corresponding “East Asia Rule” maps.  I don’t have the overlay, but our correlation point is Seoul, South Korea is roughly Clarksville, TN and Nashville is the east coast of South Korea.

GFS

European

Note just how close those are to the track of our low back in 2006?

Now…look at he surface from the BSR.

 

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Bering Sea Rule Storm Track Capabilities

Hello all,

Over the years, Josh and I have been able to predict what type of storm, or general storm track, we’d see in the coming 20 days with a mixture of his Rossby Wave research combined with the BSR.  While looking at the Accuweather “Organic Forecasting” thread, I saw a perfect opportunity.

Below is a group of ‘BSR H5 Maps’ from our site starting with a 12Z 09NOV15 Northern Pacific OBS.

Pay attention to the trough that shows up just North of Washington State in the overlay.

 

27NOV15_forecast1 27NOV15_forecast2

 

Note how the system dives down into ‘North Dakota’ as if it was a clipper system.

 

28NOV15_forecast1

 

It then “lifts” northeast to just North of Lake Superior.

28NOV15_forecast2

 

Our next frame shows that it has jumped off the Mid-Atlantic coast while deepening. How can I be sure?  In the frame above, you can see another system to the NW of our original.  That system has rotated to the Quebec region of Canada.

 

29NOV15_forecast1

29NOV15_forecast2

Here is merely an example of the difference between a ‘Miller A’ and ‘Miller B’ storm.Miller_Storms

 

We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

 

In the coming days we will keep track of how the models show this system and how the typhoon rule will come to play!

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Texas Weather Conference

Hello everyone!

I have just submitted our abstract to the Texas Weather Conference being held on February 5-6, 2016 at the University of Texas in Austin.

 

TXWX_Flier_Final-2

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Mid-November Follow Up

Hello everyone!

 

While looking through the long range GFS I noticed something familiar for the 16th of November.  Note the quasi-omega block look to this.

16NOV15_GFS

 

Now look at our “derived model” for the 16th of November back on October 30th!

 

16NOV15_H5

 

Disbelief

 

We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

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