While most of the attention started turning towards what would become of #Jonas, the #BSR was showing something else in the wings.
The above graphic was from 12JAN16 in the Pacific. Here you can see a very dynamic situation unfolding for the time period around 29JAN16 based on a lag time of 18 days. If our server hadn’t been maxed out, I’d be able to show you that the constant in the lag time is just that…it’s not constant. Just like everything else in the atmosphere, the “eddy” moves fluidly and changes not only in a “regional” scale, but also in a CONUS scale. Remember, the original premise of the BSR was that the correlation is between 17-21 days as a rule of thumb.
Here is the latest 6-8 day analog guidance provided by the CIPS, valid 03FEB16 00z.
Again, since our ability to host the maps is currently down, I cannot show you the progression of our maps. That being said, I’m certain that the corresponding graphics would look somewhat like this…
To say that this experience is something that I will never forget is an understatement! My “stash” of business cards are already being depleted and I am expecting ~20 people to attend my presentation on Thursday at 2:30pm in room 245. Those are just from face to face interactions to boot!
Off to Ocean Feedbacks and Atmospheric Precursor Signals Associated with Eastward-propagating and Eastward-deaying Tropical Intraseasonal Convection.
So I grabbed the CIPS Analog set that utilizes the NAM as it pertains to severe weather.
Top 15 Analogs with at least 5 severe weather reports within 110km grid
Top 15 Analogs with at least 10 severe weather reports within 110km grid
Earlier today, Ian Livingston of Capital Weather Gang, tweets an ESRL map showing the European EPS 11-15 analogs and how they looked.
This is what the Bering Sea Rule showed on the 4th of January for the same time period.
That is the joy of #organicforecasting!
Another great resource that I use is from a good friend of mine, Al Marinaro, or @wxmidwest.
His models utilize the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast and comprise a set of analogs.
Here is what he has for the week 2 period.
Here is what the BSR showed on 31DEC15.
Just showing support to the Bering Sea Rule goes beyond what we claim.
People in the weather community…well, those on the East Coast, are going nuts because they saw this on the 00z 02JAN16 GFS run.
Here is the OBS from the BSR on 23DEC15 with a forecast date of 11JAN16 based on 19 day lag time.
The next OBS is this.