Monthly Archives: February 2016

Weather Prediction Center Day 7 Scores

One of the patterns that I utilize while looking at the WPC day 7 maps is the ability to determine when the model and WPC scores will crash.

Some history…

WPC Day 7

On multiple occasions this winter in the Accuweather forums I have been able to discern the Day 7 maps verification by using a simple pattern recognition looking at the above chart. Depending on where we are in the pattern I will tell the members of the forum how close it will be to verifying.

Here I am telling everyone to remember my rule in the February 15th-17th storm thread. Later that same day, I posted the forecast vs reality in the February 24th-26th thread as to what happened for the January 23rd storm.

Finally, the next day I posted this regarding my thoughts on the storm track.

Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the “big storms come NW”, look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka…in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.

Below are the forecast vs obs for the 2/23/16 – 2/24/16 storm…

Day 7 forecast for 2/24/16

Day 7 forecast for 2/25/16

Actual OBS for 2/24/16

Actual OBS for 2/25/16

As you can see, it was even farther NW that what I was envisioning. One can even make the argument that if we went by the “triple point“, I was even closer than that.

During the same time that I made my call of the storm being more NW than what the WPC was showing, various outlets were calling for a coastal.

Joe Bastardi on February 18th was supporting the Euro packages for obvious reasons…

PARALLEL, CONTROL, ENSEMBLE MORE LIKE IT

Just in case someone goes and tells JB that I quoted him…just make sure that you give him my name and the nickname he gave me back in 2012…Missouri Mauler. Take a listen on July 29th, 2012 around the 45:00 minute mark.

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SPC Day 2 Risk Upgraded

As promised, here is the updated Day 2 Convection Outlook from the SPC.

 

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
   SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
   AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
   MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  A FEW OF THE
   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
   A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
   INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
   LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
   PERIOD.  A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
   PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
   FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
   WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME.  ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
   THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 

   A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   BANDS.  WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
   SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/.  DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
   TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

   ...COASTAL SC...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
   MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
   THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT.

   ..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

Take note of how they mention the threat continues after dark.  If you know anyone in the highlighted regions above, please let them know the severity of the situation.

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January BSR Verification Time

Hello everyone!

Below you see a tweet regarding the BSR 500mb forecast for the period of February 14th-18th.

That forecast was made on February 2nd.

Look below for what happened during that time period.

Admittedly, the Rockies and West Coast did not perform that well.  That being said…the East Coast and Northern Mid-Atlantic was nailed.

Also, someone on social media got all but hurt regarding my last post on “Today’s Severe Weather” and how it must be nice to hindcast.  Well…after the brief Facebook exchange that he had with me, I looked in my prior postings…lo and behold…

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So! showed towards the middle my thoughts on the President’s Day severe weather.

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

This was the Day 4-8 Outlook from the SPC issued on January 8th for the period ending 12z January 16th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PERVASIVE OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST D6...AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AIR-MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE NRN GULF AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL BECOMING NON-NEGLIGIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EVEN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/08/2016

Then again…here is the period ending on 12z January 17th…

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DAYS 4-5 /TUE-WED/...AS A LARGE UPPER VORTEX PREVAILS
   OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. WHILE A PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  DURING THIS TIME...WITH A POLAR
   AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

   MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES BEYOND DAY 5...AS THE FIRST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WRN U.S. TROUGHS REACHES THE S CENTRAL CONUS.  THE
   EURO MAINTAINS A STRONGER FEATURE...PHASING IT WITH A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH ROUNDING THE SWRN SIDE OF THE ERN U.S. VORTEX AND THUS
   DRIVING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NRN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS INTO DAY
   6.  MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THUS LITTLE RISK FOR GULF
   COAST CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE LACK OF APPARENT RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND DIVERGENT
   MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER...NO RISK AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
   FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 01/09/2016

Both times they recognize that severe weather could be possible, but the risk are too low to be issued in the forecast.

Here are the storm reports for the 16th.

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AMS Recording Is Online!

Hey everyone!

AMS2016

 

The recording of my presentation shown above is available here.  It shows the power point presentation while adding my voice.  Can you tell I was nervous?

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Today’s Severe Weather

Hello everyone!

To say that it’s been busy in the weather world is an understatement!  I’ve been having friends of mine talk about how the “rule” of the 500mb OBS are still showing up a tad NW of the BSR, but the pattern still holds!

Let’s look at what the BSR was showing for today…

As of right now we have a severe weather outbreak ongoing in the Deep South.

Once again…the BSR gave a heads up for the pattern at hand.

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Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So!

Hello all!

The GFS has been showing a severe weather set up centering around the 20th of February.

Back on the 4th it showed it based on the 372hr…

Here are today’s suites starting at 12z run…

Here is what the #BSR showed back on 02FEB16!

My personal opinion is that we will see severe weather in the Deep South during the President’s Day storm based on these…

Then, the system that the GFS is hinting at with severe weather on the 20th comes in based the first part of this post.

Apply this to the Recurring Rossby Wave Train and you get the Severe Weather Outbreak of 26DEC15-28DEC15…

Then again on 08JAN16…

I believe the 20th system is a bit too fast for the GFS to be sniffing out as it doesn’t match the severe weather on the 8th of January.

We will keep you updated as time moves along via SPC outlooks!

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Mid-February Storm Continued…

Hello everyone!

Part of my research partners focus is the Recurring Rossby Wave Train. In fact, the #RRWT recently scored better than 70% for 86-90 day forecast in the 5 day average within 6° for Chicago, IL!

Now, if we apply the 50 day cycle to our mid-February storm we get the late December period.  Here are the 6-10 day cpc precipitation outlooks.

Compare that to the updated below…

Here are the prior 8-14 day…

Here are the current 8-14 day…

Below are the results from December as a whole for Columbia, MO…

I highlighted the period in question.  Note the 2.20″, 1.14″, and 1.15″ rainfall totals.  We experienced some backside snow, but since the moisture had already moved East, nothing but a trace was recorded.

Once again, the potential for a significant storm is there for mid-February.

Here is Josh’s #rrwt forecast maps for the period as they pertain to Surface Low Pressure…

The precipitable water anomalies also…

Note the “back-end” style of greens stretching from OKC northeast towards St. Louis and continuing into lower Indiana.  This is trademark snowfall look as seen in the example below…

The radar image above is a particular time stamp, so even though the graphics above it show a 5 day range, it has the same “pattern look” to it.

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Mid-February Storm

Hello everyone!

Once again, the BSR is giving people a heads up on the pattern at hand.  I know that there are #socialmeteorologist who are claiming they called this next big storm.

Here is what the BSR showed us in late January starting on the 29th.

160204011300.jpg160205011300.jpgIMagx0N.jpg

The models are starting to showing a significant storm becoming an I-70 special.  The control run of the CMC and GEFS are the dark circles.  The CMC goes from Northern Arkansas into West Central KY,

Here is the European Operational run from this afternoon.

The 18z GFS depiction is a tad farther North of the European.

I will NOT show snowfall maps as that makes people believe that the exact scenario will happen.  We are between 9 and 10 days out ladies and gentlemen.  Note how the first graphics show a 500mb ull moving almost due West to East and then apply that to the models showing a West to East movement!  The key to the BSR is how we…

Sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!

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January BSR Reanalysis

Hello all,

It was brought up on the Accuweather forums via a member in Ohio that the BSR failed in January…

I’m not a big fan of using the BSR for predicting every day weather patterns. It did pretty bad in January. I much prefer using the TR for that, and leaving the BSR to predict big systems. 

If we were to use the BSR to forecast January, we would be using 2014 as an analog to say the least. It suggested that we’d see an eastern trough for 30 days straight.

Here are the 500mb maps for January…

As you can see, the 500mb shows that the below normal category stretched all the way into the lower peninsula of Michigan.

Look at the 850mb representation…

Once again you can see that lower anomalies covered all of the Eastern CONUS and even into Canada.

Yet…look at the 2mT’s

Here are the 850mb Temperature anomalies…

January_850mb_temp_anomaly

As I told the member on the forums…

One of the things that I was having to remind people is how “stale” the cold air was on numerous occasions.

He responded quickly…

It has been stale when it was here but it was because of the snow cover.  January was much warmer than what BSR would’ve suggested.

My final rebuttal before creating this blog.

The BSR didn’t suggest a cold January. It suggested below normal 500mb heights.

As you can see…the mid-levels did not agree with the surface temps.  On January 6th, I explained to a good friend of mine my thoughts on the pattern and how I kept seeing storms occluding quickly.

The data clearly shows that the BSR was correct in the depiction of what we expected in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and due to the timing of occlusion in an already stale environment, the lower levels just didn’t match.

Lastly, might I suggest that you look at my research partner’s data here where he archives all of his ESRL maps.

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