We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on. Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.
What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather. Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.
The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.
Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.
Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.
Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…
Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.