Severe Weather Signals

Hello all,

We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on.  Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.

What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather.  Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.

The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.

Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.

Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.

Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…

 

 

 

 

Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.

An Early Look Into February Verification

Hey everyone,

While looking at the long range thread of Accuweather.com’s forums, it moved me to look up a few things.

The BSR depiction of February 5th-9th at the 500mb level.

Here is what the European model was showing for 7am today back on January 26th.

 This is what the late night run of the GFS showed last night for the same time period.

 

The GEFS 5 day from February 5th-10th has this.

January Verification

Hello everyone!

To start off the January verification, I will bring up how in mid-December a former coworker of mine requested a favor from me. He was taking his RV from Central Missouri to Florida during the first week of January. Bud was actually worried about snow and ice on the way there.  I looked at the #bsr maps and told him that he needed to be concerned about severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast during the first 3 days of January.

The BSR depiction of those days.

January 1st…note the developing low pressure with the ‘x’ between Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA. This overlay was created on December 16th.

The 96hr map created on December 11th was our first ‘official’ hit via a system moving into Western Texas.

January 2nd map shows SW-WSW flow evident from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

January 3rd

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps.

January 1st surface map shows two low pressures in the Deep South connected via a stationary front and then connected to a trailing cold front off the East Coast. The 500mb chart shows two upper level lows, ULL’s, one in the Pacific Northwest and one in the Southwest. The ULL over Hudson Bay is associated with the occluded system over the Missouri River Valley on the BSR.

January 2nd has a stationary front stretching across the Deep South into the Southeast and multiple lows in the West. Even though the BSR January 2nd map didn’t have the low pressures, it did have multiple troughs.  These are shown via the dashed orange lines.  The 500mb map still has the trough focused out West and the Southeast Ridge, SER, is stout.  BSR map didn’t depict this well because the Northern ULL isn’t far enough North.

January 3rd shows that there is a lot of ‘noise’ in our OBS map. A strong storm in Minnesota, an occluded low off of Cape May, NJ with another over Louisville, KY. The BSR depicted this map very well in my opinion. Zonal West-East flow across the Southern states with ridging along the East Coast, mixed with our persistent trough over the West.

 

The actual severe weather reports for January 2nd shows 43 tornado, 246 wind, and 6 hail.

January 4th BSR depiction has a weakening system in the Great Lakes, and strong occluded system in the Northeast, and another one moving into the Tennessee Valley (keep this one in mind). This finally “bleeds” the trough to the East after being stuck in the West for days.

January 4th OBS has the dying system over the Canadian Providence of Quebec, the strong occluded system in the Gulf of Maine, and a storm system trying to develop in New Mexico.

 

Winter Storm Helena, or the ‘Dark Night Blizzard II‘ as named in the Accuweather.com forums, is our next interest. I am going to show a few of the earlier maps because they gave hints of the pattern to come per a Southern Stream system moving along the Gulf and making ‘the turn’ inside the benchmark of 40/70. This benchmark is the latitude/longitude marker that gives a good deal of those in the Northeast a decent sized snowstorm.  It’s obvious that different areas of the Northeast have different ‘benchmarks’, but the most well known is the 40/70.

 

 

 

 

I stated this on December 29th to the Accuweather.com forums…

[quote name=’jdrenken’ date=’Dec 29 2016, 01:11 PM’ post=’2164006′]
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey.  That being said…it’s from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.
EDIT: [i][b]Do not[/b][/i] change the dates again.
[/quote]

Along with something I told a fellow submariner who lives on Long Island.

The OBS maps starting on January 5th below…
January 5th, 2017

 

January 6th

 

 

January 7th

 

 

January 8th has the system exiting off of the Nova Scotia coast.  The BSR had it just moving into Nova Scotia on the 8th. While the upper air pattern had a trough focused  from Ottawa, Canada straight South into North Carolina. The BSR map had a closed low situated on top of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

 

 

Here are the 48 hour snowfall totals from the NWS.

Our next system that will be highlighted is ‘Winter Storm Jupiter’. The BSR maps start on January 11th to show the flow pattern. At this time, Josh and I noticed that our data catch wasn’t updating correctly due to a code issue and so our lag time wasn’t being calculated correctly. Note the noise over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This was stagnant cold air being left behind from earlier. Then, a warm front was being shown over powering the cold air with Southwest flow ahead of it. Tale-tale sign of an ice storm forming.

 

 

 

 

Here are the surface and 500mb OBS maps…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the various storm reports with .75″ of ice in Waynesville, MO being the highest.

This from Accuweather combines multiple tweets about the storm.

The BSR suffered greatly and shown via our 3 Day Rate of Change, ROC. The Central correlation point suffered the worse while the Great Lakes is doing the best for January. Yes, the Northeast is ‘technically’ the lowest score, but it was dismal during November, so there is plenty of ground to catch up with.

Southwest

Mountain

Central

Great Lakes

Northeast

CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

December Verification

Hello everyone!

As promised, I have finally gotten around to looking at December’s #bsr verification.

Here is the BSR depiction, both surface and 500mb, for December 1st.

The surface and 500mb of what actually happened.

It goes without saying that for an 18 day lag time, the #bsr did very well! An occluded system off of Southern New England, three low pressure systems over the desert Southwest, and a clipper coming down the pipe in the Northern Plains.

Fast forward a few days to December 6th.

The BSR depicted a system in the Northern Plains with a dominate trough stretching into the Pacific Northwest aided by a dual upper level low pattern, along with a system moving into the Southeast with ridging in front.

Next is the cold shot for the 12th-20th…

 December 12th

The BSR had ridging pushing up the East coast with a mean trough over the Plains and West. This did very well to start off.

December 13th

The BSR had a strong storm system developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley that never materialized for the CONUS which skewed the next couple of days..

December 14th

 

 

December 15th

 

 

The BSR had a trough focused on the Ohio Valley with ridging off the East Coast and another trough in the West. East coast didn’t do too bad, but the trough for the West was too far East.

December 16th

 

 

The BSR had another strong system moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley to which I was warning about a severe weather event.

December 17th

 

 

The severe weather event that I thought would start on the 16th was delayed by a day. Ridging over the East coast did well, but the trough was too far East on the BSR maps.  I would think that the lag time was a day off.

December 18th

 

 

December 19th

 

Something else that the BSR keyed in on was the ULL in area of the Baja Peninsula.

December 20th

 

Early in December everyone was going nuts over the ridging in the Bering Sea which promoted a -WPO & -EPO combination and allowed the influx of cold air during the above time period. While they were doing so, I kept warning them that they won’t be happy during the week of Christmas because the warmth would return with a vengeance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…off to work I go! If you have any questions email me at kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

Also, make sure you tune in tonight for a streaming show that Dr. Lupo and I will be interviewed on regarding the #bsr and #organicforecasting!

 

The Bering Sea Rule Is Gaining Attention

Hello everyone!

First, and foremost, I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize for not updating the blog as much as I need to.  My full-time job at the Veterans Affairs Hospital has me working 20 hours of overtime a week so that cuts down on my ability to look over things.

In 2013, I got in contact with Accuweather’s long range forecasting team and established some good friendships within the company outside of that said team.  One friend that I still speak with on a regular basis is Mark. Mark is no longer at Accuweather, but writes articles for Weatherboy.com.  For the past 1.5 months, I have contributed my thoughts to his articles located below.

December 21st, 2016

Looking Beyond a Two Week Forecast

January 3rd, 2017
January 9th, 2017
January 19th, 2017
We were discussing on FB Messenger that a new article will be created in a week for multiple severe weather signals that we are seeing via the Bering Sea Rule, Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Also, take a gander at searching on Twitter for people utilizing the #bsr to forecast between 17-21 days in advance! Those out east are starting to catch on, especially when it comes to the threat for the period between February 8th-10th! The only bad part is you have to weed through the other hits for #bsr.

Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It’s amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole…

  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society’s New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association’s Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou’s meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let’s go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.

Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.

 

 

 

A few tweets early this month…

 

What’s All The Hoopla About…Part Two!

In my hoopla post on December 1st, I discussed how the #BSR saw the pattern change to cold that we are, and will, experience in the coming days.  Let’s focus on the last section of that post.

 

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

Note the ridge with the highest anomalies just South of the Aleutian Island chain and moving into the Eastern Bering Sea.

BSR Map

Our current lag time is running at 17 days.

BSR Lag

Here is the NOAA CPC 8-14 day analog.

What’s All The Hoopla About??!!

Now, those that know me know I’m just poking fun with the above.  Why do you ask?  Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.

Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!

I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.

Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.

Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.

The strength lies in the West and “bleeds” east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!

Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our “trifecta” of Organic Forecasting.

As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.

For good measure, let’s add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak…

Hmmm…a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th.  Coincidence…I think not.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

Busy As All Get Out!!

Hello everyone!

It has been quite crazy for me.  My job at the Department of Veterans Affairs has been working me hard and it’s a bit to get use to.

I attended the NWAS Annual Meeting on September 14th to present the Recurring Rossby Wave Train research and feel it went very well.  Once the NWAS updates the presentations to become available I’ll let you know!  A shout out to those who continue to support me via the GoFundMe account! Without your support, I would not have the ability to attend these conferences!

One a side note, I had the luxury to discuss the #organicforecasting method to Ginger Zee of GMA!