CarolinaWxGroup Interview and More…

 

Hello everyone!

Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.

Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise!  Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.

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December Verification

Hello everyone!

As promised, I have finally gotten around to looking at December’s #bsr verification.

Here is the BSR depiction, both surface and 500mb, for December 1st.

The surface and 500mb of what actually happened.

It goes without saying that for an 18 day lag time, the #bsr did very well! An occluded system off of Southern New England, three low pressure systems over the desert Southwest, and a clipper coming down the pipe in the Northern Plains.

Fast forward a few days to December 6th.

The BSR depicted a system in the Northern Plains with a dominate trough stretching into the Pacific Northwest aided by a dual upper level low pattern, along with a system moving into the Southeast with ridging in front.

Next is the cold shot for the 12th-20th…

 December 12th

The BSR had ridging pushing up the East coast with a mean trough over the Plains and West. This did very well to start off.

December 13th

The BSR had a strong storm system developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley that never materialized for the CONUS which skewed the next couple of days..

December 14th

 

 

December 15th

 

 

The BSR had a trough focused on the Ohio Valley with ridging off the East Coast and another trough in the West. East coast didn’t do too bad, but the trough for the West was too far East.

December 16th

 

 

The BSR had another strong system moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley to which I was warning about a severe weather event.

December 17th

 

 

The severe weather event that I thought would start on the 16th was delayed by a day. Ridging over the East coast did well, but the trough was too far East on the BSR maps.  I would think that the lag time was a day off.

December 18th

 

 

December 19th

 

Something else that the BSR keyed in on was the ULL in area of the Baja Peninsula.

December 20th

 

Early in December everyone was going nuts over the ridging in the Bering Sea which promoted a -WPO & -EPO combination and allowed the influx of cold air during the above time period. While they were doing so, I kept warning them that they won’t be happy during the week of Christmas because the warmth would return with a vengeance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…off to work I go! If you have any questions email me at kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

Also, make sure you tune in tonight for a streaming show that Dr. Lupo and I will be interviewed on regarding the #bsr and #organicforecasting!

 

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The Bering Sea Rule Is Gaining Attention

Hello everyone!

First, and foremost, I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize for not updating the blog as much as I need to.  My full-time job at the Veterans Affairs Hospital has me working 20 hours of overtime a week so that cuts down on my ability to look over things.

In 2013, I got in contact with Accuweather’s long range forecasting team and established some good friendships within the company outside of that said team.  One friend that I still speak with on a regular basis is Mark. Mark is no longer at Accuweather, but writes articles for Weatherboy.com.  For the past 1.5 months, I have contributed my thoughts to his articles located below.

December 21st, 2016

Looking Beyond a Two Week Forecast

January 3rd, 2017
January 9th, 2017
January 19th, 2017
We were discussing on FB Messenger that a new article will be created in a week for multiple severe weather signals that we are seeing via the Bering Sea Rule, Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Also, take a gander at searching on Twitter for people utilizing the #bsr to forecast between 17-21 days in advance! Those out east are starting to catch on, especially when it comes to the threat for the period between February 8th-10th! The only bad part is you have to weed through the other hits for #bsr.

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Year In Review and Christmas Week Follow Up

Hey everyone!

Here we are, Christmas Eve of 2016.  It’s amazing how fast the year has flown by!

Some highlights of 2016 for #organicforecasting as a whole…

  1. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the American Meteorological Society’s New Orleans Annual Meeting in January.
  2. Presented the Bering Sea Rule to the local Kansas City AMS chapter.
  3. Submitted the Bering Sea Rule and East Asia Rule for peer review.
  4. Recurring Rossby Wave Train abstracts were accepted to the National Weather Association’s Norfolk, VA Annual Meeting in September for oral presentation and Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Workshop held in Bangor, ME this past October for poster presentation.
  5. Established contacts within the National Weather Service for continued collaboration into research.
  6. Josh has streamlined the data section of organicforecasting.com by adding plenty of new items and tweaking the Recurring Rossby Wave Train calculations.
  7. Interviewed by the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and taught the Long Range Forecasting Class of Mizzou’s meteorology program our organic forecasting techniques.

Let’s go ahead and talk about a few things this week.  What the BSR started to see for the 5 day range on December 12th for the 21st-Christmas Day.

Below you will find the NWS Weather Prediction Center’s anomaly maps initialized today for the 1-5 and 3-7 day range.

 

 

 

A few tweets early this month…

 

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What’s All The Hoopla About…Part Two!

In my hoopla post on December 1st, I discussed how the #BSR saw the pattern change to cold that we are, and will, experience in the coming days.  Let’s focus on the last section of that post.

 

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

Note the ridge with the highest anomalies just South of the Aleutian Island chain and moving into the Eastern Bering Sea.

BSR Map

Our current lag time is running at 17 days.

BSR Lag

Here is the NOAA CPC 8-14 day analog.

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What’s All The Hoopla About??!!

Now, those that know me know I’m just poking fun with the above.  Why do you ask?  Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.

Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!

I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.

Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.

Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.

The strength lies in the West and “bleeds” east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!

Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our “trifecta” of Organic Forecasting.

As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.

For good measure, let’s add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak…

Hmmm…a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th.  Coincidence…I think not.

Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.

Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that.  He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region.  Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…

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Busy As All Get Out!!

Hello everyone!

It has been quite crazy for me.  My job at the Department of Veterans Affairs has been working me hard and it’s a bit to get use to.

I attended the NWAS Annual Meeting on September 14th to present the Recurring Rossby Wave Train research and feel it went very well.  Once the NWAS updates the presentations to become available I’ll let you know!  A shout out to those who continue to support me via the GoFundMe account! Without your support, I would not have the ability to attend these conferences!

One a side note, I had the luxury to discuss the #organicforecasting method to Ginger Zee of GMA!

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We Have Been Parodied!

Hello everyone!

Sorry that it has been some time since I’ve posted but life events have taken their toll on my ability to keep up here.  Since my post last month the popularity of our #organicforecasting method has gained some steam.  This, in due part, because of a few meteorologist who have been able to utilize our methodology very well in forecasting past the models current 14 days.  Not only that, but they have the ability to let their viewers know that when models go through the typical “cha-cha”, that they need to be confident that the #organicforecasting method holds true.

Yes, we have seen some set backs here and there since I’ve started utilizing this method in earnest over 3 years ago.  However, that being said, our success has outpaced the set backs. We will continue to learn from the bust potentials that we’ve gone through and strive to improve the forecasting method.

With the above in mind, I found out four days ago that someone in Boston, MA created a parody twitter account to bring out our “failures”.  One issue that I have is where they came after one of the meteorologist who utilizes our system, Michael Clark of BAM Chase.

Here is the tweet in question…

I know the ESRL map is too small to figure out the dates, but they are from June 23rd, 2016 through June 27th, 2016. A blown up version…

 So…Michael had stated it was going to get cooler during that period.  Let’s look at the 5 days prior to that…June 17th, 2016 through June 22, 2016.

The above maps are utilizing the same reanalysis set from the Earth Systems Research Library so there is no confusion. As for the legend, even though the numbers on the right are set different, the range is still at .5 for each color code.

Let’s place them side by side and you tell me if what we said came true?

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The Weather Junkies Interview

Hey gang,

Sorry that it took a while to update the blog with the latest #organicforecasting interview, but here it is.

Ep 25: Long Range Forecasts Using Bering Sea & Typhoon Rule w/ JD Renken

 

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