I’ve been digging deep into multiple command line programs that we utilize for looking at various netCDF files along with some python coding to further my research into the intraseasonal oscillation and how it affects the #organicforecasting methodology.
Below you will see how the team is doing utilizing the #RRWT for a year long forecast rodeo.
Here you can see how we are performing against the top teams. Keep in mind that this is among 188 of them!
The current Southern Oscillation Index research is going well and we have a few abstracts ready for the CPCDW in Norman, OK this October and the AMS18 in January!
Finally got the Mid-Missouri Freedom interview from October 6, 2015 uploaded. Start at 38:40 to hear the interview of Dr. Lupo and myself with Steve of the Mid-Missouri Freedom Forum. At 55:30 is where I talked about this fall and winter.
My interview with the Farm & Fiddle Show on 12-02-15 starts at 18:00.
Below is the animated sea height anomalies from the Jason-2 satellite. Pay close attention to how the above normal anomalies travel along the equator.
Now…compare that to the El Niño Modoki Index.
You can easily follow the higher sea height anomalies with the spikes in the Modoki index! Here is another graphic where you can follow the connection…
So..let’s put two and two together. Look for the focus of this El Niño to shift even farther East as time moves along. How do I know…it’s already happening! All year the higher heights have moved from West to East as the EKW pushed the subsurface anomalies more and more East.
Just in case the high school students attempt to use the sst’s here is that animation.
Still not convinced for those looking at sst’s instead of ssta’s?
20° Isotherm depth…
That 140-160 yellow sure does look like it’s moved farther east with each EKW.
With the new year only a mere hours away, I have decided to look at the various ENSO indicies that we look at.
Take a look at my post from a little bit over a month ago. The Kelvin Wave was hitting a brick wall in cooler than normal anomalies in the subsurface region of 90°W. As a result, the Region 1+2 section took a nose dive…
Other regions in December weren’t fairing too well either…
Let’s look at the subsurface as of 24DEC14…
As you can see, the Kelvin Wave was still moving towards the East. Per the Region 1+2 graphic above, you can see a recovery. This recovery will move into the .5° anomaly and, mixed with the steady Region 3, shows the Modoki calls are without cause! Also, note how Region 4 and 3.4 focusing that region 3.4 is how the Climate Prediction Center determines El Niño. Yet, Region 3 is steady as a rock. I can see Region 3 spiking soon with the warmest subsurface anomalies being right below it.
An East Central Based El Niño looks to be in the cards for the first part of January. Come after the 15th, the Kelvin Wave will loose it’s moxie and we will see cooling yet again. I am looking at a very active, cold, and snowy late January through March as a result.
Please take a moment and read the weekly ENSO update on the CPC website here in pdf form!
So…here we are in the middle of November looking at the status of the ENSO. I have been telling people here in Central Missouri since October 19th “officially” that it will be a “backloaded” winter. One of those reasons is because of a slowly developing El Niño. So…let’s look at the current state. Before that, here are the ENSO regions that we look at for such.
Below you see a combination of graphs of the temperature for each region of the ENSO.
As you can see, the obs are fairly close to each other.
1.02 = Region 1+2
1.27 = Region 3
1.07 = Region 3.4…ENSO identifier
1.05 = Region 4
Looking closer at the 3.4 graph, we have been above +.5 since the beginning of the month. With that in mind…lets dig deeper…
Here are the TAO numbers…
As you can see above, warmer anomalies of the 20° C isotherm traverse across the equatorial Pacific from West to East in association with a Oceanic Kelvin Wave. Take note how the above normal anomalies have hit a brick wall past 90°W after mid-September.
Now look at the animation below…
Cooler than normal sub-surface anomalies have hampered the progression of the above normal trend past 100°W as it is attacked from below. Just how far East the current Kelvin Wave makes it will be determined by that pool of cooler waters at 100°W. Region 3 is a shoe in regardless and the impending result is a warmer signal.
That being said…look for a transition to colder than normal temperatures roughly mid-late December as the surface anomalies increase and move Westward…which, per my last El Niño post, shows colder anomalies.
Also…on the hype about the Super El Niño that was forecasted back in March and April…found an interesting tidbit, page 16, in that the TAO buoys data availability was at a mere 28% in March. The common theme of “garbage in-garbage out” applies here as it’s obvious that missing that much data screwed up the ingestion of information into said models that were predicting a Super El Niño!