I’ve been digging deep into multiple command line programs that we utilize for looking at various netCDF files along with some python coding to further my research into the intraseasonal oscillation and how it affects the #organicforecasting methodology.
Below you will see how the team is doing utilizing the #RRWT for a year long forecast rodeo.
Here you can see how we are performing against the top teams. Keep in mind that this is among 188 of them!
The current Southern Oscillation Index research is going well and we have a few abstracts ready for the CPCDW in Norman, OK this October and the AMS18 in January!
We’ve been talking about the severe weather signals for mid-February now off and on. Here is something that Josh put together from the #RRWT.
What you are looking at are the #RRWT Lifted Index maps for the 21-25 day “outlook” compared to the SPC CFS Dashboard for severe weather. Right off the bat, I want you to notice that the CFS Dashboard didn’t see the ‘signal’ until the 276hr – 300hr forecast. That’s a mere 11.5 – 12.5 days heads up vs the #RRWT giving a signal by all three depictions starting on January 23rd via the graphics below.
The models are honing in on severe weather even before the CFS dashboard starting on the 17th. So, looking above you can tell that the #RRWT was a good indicator during a “lull” being shown via the dashboard.
Mix that with the Southern Oscillation Index Delta, or #SOID.
Multiple variations in the sine wave above note volatility in the daily SOI numbers. That volatility translates to a volatile pattern in the United States.
Now, put it all together with the BSR depictions from the 15th to the 21st…
Bad news for those along the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley’s.
Be sure to watch my interview with the CarolinaWxGroup on youtube! Dr. Lupo had issues with his camera, but joined in on the phone.
Right now, I’m in the process of gathering data for my January verification post, which will be published in a few days…I promise! Meeting with Dr. Lupo is at 11:30am today and we plan on discussing quite a few objectives for our future research.
Now, those that know me know I’m just poking fun with the above. Why do you ask? Well, the Bering Sea Rule gave us a heads up on Veterans Day! Note the key features of an ULL in South Central California, a shortwave in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and another off Cape Cod.
Here is the WPC 500mb forecast issued yesterday evening. Note the similarities??!!
I see an ULL feature over the Baja, a shortwave in the mid-Plains, and another off New England.
Here is what the future holds in 5 day increments via the 500mb anomalies.
Tropical Tidbits only allows me to use 850mb 5 day averages, but the premise remains.
The strength lies in the West and “bleeds” east ladies and gentlemen, just like the BSR showed!
Here is what the EAR maps showed also, which is part of our “trifecta” of Organic Forecasting.
As you can see from above, strong system from the West comes into the Rockies and ejects into the Great Lakes which brings the cold air behind it.
For good measure, let’s add the SOID metric that we are researching as we speak…
Hmmm…a 33.15 drop in 3 days between November 13th and November 16th. Coincidence…I think not.
Sad part is I was portrayed by a twitter account out east that I was denying the pattern change was even going to take place and “was wasting your time”.
Umm…yeah…Looks like my research and data was denying that. He was just upset that I noticed he was calling for a ridge in the EPO/AO region when in reality, it was the WPO region. Some education of the loading differences for EPO/WPO…